Stevo6899 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 15 days and counting of boring cold weather. Looks like another storm for upper Midwest. Models going away from a stronger secondary. Isn't it more usual for the first storm to dominate? Well actually the initial wave is weak then a secondary does developed but still too west. Why aren't these storms going more west to east. They keep b-lining north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mref_mars/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 6z GFS stronger with the second sfc low, going through IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It seems Im really on a different page as almost everyone, I do not want to see any severe weather at all, unless its severe snow. I guess Im just not as into severe as the rest of you guys. I mean, I love a good strong/severe spring or summer storm, but I do not look at this like, oooh well we might as well try and get severe weather if it warms up. I look at it as, its going to briefly warm up, causing fog over the snowpack probably on New Years Eve, already one of the most dangerous nights of the year to be out, then its going to get cold right away. F-THIS! I dont want severe weather, just would like to save some snowpack as ugly as it may be by then to serve as a base for the next snowfall. Agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Agree... If we can get a snornado, that would mix up our 2 week snow cover with some new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 If we can get a snornado, that would mix up our 2 week snow cover with some new snow. We are desperate. LMAO STEVo good morning bud.. LOL. Hopefully before 2012 we beat our old record of 24.2 inches. The record is only in 120 years old, but hey you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 It seems Im really on a different page as almost everyone, I do not want to see any severe weather at all, unless its severe snow. I guess Im just not as into severe as the rest of you guys. I mean, I love a good strong/severe spring or summer storm, but I do not look at this like, oooh well we might as well try and get severe weather if it warms up. I look at it as, its going to briefly warm up, causing fog over the snowpack probably on New Years Eve, already one of the most dangerous nights of the year to be out, then its going to get cold right away. F-THIS! I dont want severe weather, just would like to save some snowpack as ugly as it may be by then to serve as a base for the next snowfall. I second this. Severe storms are for April15-October15, and should stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 well this one looks like nothing but rain, headed to northern wisconsin for the new year and some snowmobiling and this one pretty much ruins that. Praying for a shift, but thinking it ain't gonna happen with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 well this one looks like nothing but rain, headed to northern wisconsin for the new year and some snowmobiling and this one pretty much ruins that. Praying for a shift, but thinking it ain't gonna happen with this one. Yeah that sucks...a terrible time for a rainstorm. I had the same experience about 10 or so years ago on a snowmobile trip up to the Northwoods. I'm going to nominate that this one be called the Grinch Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 12Z GFS cuts it through western Wisconsin and strengthens it as it does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 and the GGEM takes a 1002 (b/w map) MB low from the IL/IA border north and blows it up. Time for Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Possible a heavy snow band back into MN with these latest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 well this one looks like nothing but rain, headed to northern wisconsin for the new year and some snowmobiling and this one pretty much ruins that. Praying for a shift, but thinking it ain't gonna happen with this one. I haven't even got out on my snowmobile yet. First I was waiting for them to put the protective mat down on the lower part of the lift bridge, and then I came down with a real bad cold. It looks like a good west wind event for us after the low charges into Canada. So hopefully we will get some good lake snow amounts here in the Keweenaw. It has been the pattern of the post Christmas thaw the last few years. I wish this trend would change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 One thing to make note of is the threat of some sleet and freezing rain Wednesday night-Thursday for Indiana and Ohio. I believe it will be brief but could cause some problems Wednesday evening across the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 12z EURO: HR: 96 Sub 1004 MB LOW somewhere (no real defined pressure imo) 0z EURO: HR: 108 Sub 1000 MB LOW in Iowa. Way weaker so far with the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 HR 102 has a 1004 or 1000 LOW in NE. MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Yeah that sucks...a terrible time for a rainstorm. I had the same experience about 10 or so years ago on a snowmobile trip up to the Northwoods. I'm going to nominate that this one be called the Grinch Storm. Seems like there's always one. At least we delayed it until New Years. I'm not convinced yet that this is the final solution. Models struggle notoriously in these types of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 The EURO is cooking!! 50's on New Years Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Euro at 114: 996-ish just north of DLH (straddling the US/Canada border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 UKMET has some hint of another low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Seems like there's always one. At least we delayed it until New Years. I'm not convinced yet that this is the final solution. Models struggle notoriously in these types of setups. Bingo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Anyone see the 12z GFS ensembles? There is massive disagreement with the op on most of them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Bingo! I'd be really interested to see the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I will take my chances playing Russian Roulette over settling for a decent model solution until Wednesday or even Thursday 00Z runs. At least with Russian Roulette the chances of getting nailed with a final answer is better. I still believe a second low is going to form and ride up the front instead of one main low. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Anyone see the 12z GFS ensembles? There is massive disagreement with the op on most of them: Not as good as the 00z ones which had a majority showing a 2nd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Not as good as the 00z ones which had a majority showing a 2nd low. Flip back to 120. There's about 6 or 7 that are trying to hint at precip moving back into your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 LOT [/url] PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH FOR LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY IS NEAR THE 99 PERCENTILE FOR THE AREA. CONSIDERING THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THIS WILL BE A VERY DYNAMIC STORM...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME STRONG STORMS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO TELL IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. BUT GIVEN THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...WE MAY NOT NEED A WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY TO GET SOMETHING GOING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I haven't even got out on my snowmobile yet. First I was waiting for them to put the protective mat down on the lower part of the lift bridge, and then I came down with a real bad cold. It looks like a good west wind event for us after the low charges into Canada. So hopefully we will get some good lake snow amounts here in the Keweenaw. It has been the pattern of the post Christmas thaw the last few years. I wish this trend would change. Does it look like we will get in on the west wind event down here in the LP? I sure do hope so....SICK of these north wind lake effect events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 HPC says the GFS is probably too progressive regarding the New Years Weekend event...and caution is needed regarding the second low as there is still considerable spread in the ensembles... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 218 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010 VALID 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 03 2011 ...SNOWSTORM MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU-SAT... ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MS-TN RIVER VALLEYS/CENTRAL GULF COAST SAT-SUN... 12Z GUIDANCE IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO OTHER RECENT GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE LONGWAVE FLOW EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3-5...WHILE AN INTENSE POLAR JET SPLITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DUE TO BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND PRODUCES A SMALLER BUT PERHAPS STILL SIGNIFICANT CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST BY DAYS 5/6. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOTICED WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CUT-OFF AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER PHASE AGREEMENT WITH A 2ND SMALLER LOW NEARING CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE BLENDED ABOUT 25 PERCENT EACH OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE EARLY MORNING BLEND...WHICH CONSISTED OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...TO CONSTRUCT THE FINAL PRESSURE/FRONT PROGS. THE FINAL CHANGES WILL EMPHASIZE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENTERING THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MEANWHILE... THE LARGE AND EXPANDED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT ACCOMPANIES MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH MILDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO SPREAD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MS-TN RIVER VALLEYS/GULF COAST SAT-SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE NEAR THE FASTER EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW IMPROVED CLUSTERING REGARDING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST SAT-MON. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MUCH LARGER...WHICH WARRANTS CAUTION IN RELYING TO0 MUCH ON ANY ONE SOLUTION FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH THE MODELS ARE LIKELY HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 18z GFS hammers Minny again. 992 low in NW WI. What's new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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