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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd


northpittweather

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15 days and counting of boring cold weather. Looks like another storm for upper Midwest. Models going away from a stronger secondary. Isn't it more usual for the first storm to dominate? Well actually the initial wave is weak then a secondary does developed but still too west. Why aren't these storms going more west to east. They keep b-lining north.

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It seems Im really on a different page as almost everyone, I do not want to see any severe weather at all, unless its severe snow. I guess Im just not as into severe as the rest of you guys. I mean, I love a good strong/severe spring or summer storm, but I do not look at this like, oooh well we might as well try and get severe weather if it warms up. I look at it as, its going to briefly warm up, causing fog over the snowpack probably on New Years Eve, already one of the most dangerous nights of the year to be out, then its going to get cold right away. F-THIS! I dont want severe weather, just would like to save some snowpack as ugly as it may be by then to serve as a base for the next snowfall.

Agree...

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It seems Im really on a different page as almost everyone, I do not want to see any severe weather at all, unless its severe snow. I guess Im just not as into severe as the rest of you guys. I mean, I love a good strong/severe spring or summer storm, but I do not look at this like, oooh well we might as well try and get severe weather if it warms up. I look at it as, its going to briefly warm up, causing fog over the snowpack probably on New Years Eve, already one of the most dangerous nights of the year to be out, then its going to get cold right away. F-THIS! I dont want severe weather, just would like to save some snowpack as ugly as it may be by then to serve as a base for the next snowfall.

I second this. Severe storms are for April15-October15, and should stay that way.

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well this one looks like nothing but rain, headed to northern wisconsin for the new year and some snowmobiling and this one pretty much ruins that. Praying for a shift, but thinking it ain't gonna happen with this one.:axe:

Yeah that sucks...a terrible time for a rainstorm. I had the same experience about 10 or so years ago on a snowmobile trip up to the Northwoods.

I'm going to nominate that this one be called the Grinch Storm. :thumbsdown:

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well this one looks like nothing but rain, headed to northern wisconsin for the new year and some snowmobiling and this one pretty much ruins that. Praying for a shift, but thinking it ain't gonna happen with this one.:axe:

I haven't even got out on my snowmobile yet. First I was waiting for them to put the protective mat down on the lower part of the lift bridge, and then I came down with a real bad cold. It looks like a good west wind event for us after the low charges into Canada. So hopefully we will get some good lake snow amounts here in the Keweenaw. It has been the pattern of the post Christmas thaw the last few years. I wish this trend would change.

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Yeah that sucks...a terrible time for a rainstorm. I had the same experience about 10 or so years ago on a snowmobile trip up to the Northwoods.

I'm going to nominate that this one be called the Grinch Storm. :thumbsdown:

Seems like there's always one. At least we delayed it until New Years.

I'm not convinced yet that this is the final solution. Models struggle notoriously in these types of setups.

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I will take my chances playing Russian Roulette over settling for a decent model solution until Wednesday or even Thursday 00Z runs. At least with Russian Roulette the chances of getting nailed with a final answer is better. I still believe a second low is going to form and ride up the front instead of one main low.

Josh

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I haven't even got out on my snowmobile yet. First I was waiting for them to put the protective mat down on the lower part of the lift bridge, and then I came down with a real bad cold. It looks like a good west wind event for us after the low charges into Canada. So hopefully we will get some good lake snow amounts here in the Keweenaw. It has been the pattern of the post Christmas thaw the last few years. I wish this trend would change.

Does it look like we will get in on the west wind event down here in the LP? I sure do hope so....SICK of these north wind lake effect events...

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HPC says the GFS is probably too progressive regarding the New Years Weekend event...and caution is needed regarding the second low as there is still considerable spread in the ensembles...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

218 PM EST MON DEC 27 2010

VALID 12Z THU DEC 30 2010 - 12Z MON JAN 03 2011

...SNOWSTORM MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST

THU-SAT...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE MS-TN RIVER VALLEYS/CENTRAL GULF COAST

SAT-SUN...

12Z GUIDANCE IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO OTHER RECENT GUIDANCE

CONCERNING THE LONGWAVE FLOW EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE THE CONUS IN

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW

PROGRESSING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAYS 3-5...WHILE

AN INTENSE POLAR JET SPLITS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC DUE TO

BLOCKED DOWNSTREAM FLOW AND PRODUCES A SMALLER BUT PERHAPS STILL

SIGNIFICANT CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST BY DAYS 5/6.

THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOTICED WITH THE BULK OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS FOR

SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE CUT-OFF AS IT REACHES THE UPPER

MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER PHASE

AGREEMENT WITH A 2ND SMALLER LOW NEARING CALIFORNIA SATURDAY

NIGHT/SUNDAY. THUS...HAVE BLENDED ABOUT 25 PERCENT EACH OF THE 12Z

CANADIAN/UKMET WITH THE EARLY MORNING BLEND...WHICH CONSISTED OF

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...TO CONSTRUCT THE

FINAL PRESSURE/FRONT PROGS.

THE FINAL CHANGES WILL EMPHASIZE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM

DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENTERING

THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE

ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE... THE LARGE AND EXPANDED TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT

ACCOMPANIES MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD ALLOW FOR

MUCH MILDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO SPREAD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEAVY

RAIN LIKELY FORMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MS-TN RIVER

VALLEYS/GULF COAST SAT-SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE 12Z GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE NEAR THE

FASTER EDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...OTHER GUIDANCE

INCLUDING THE 12Z UKMET/CANADIAN SHOW IMPROVED CLUSTERING

REGARDING ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND VERY CLOSE TO

THE CALIFORNIA COAST SAT-MON. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MUCH

LARGER...WHICH WARRANTS CAUTION IN RELYING TO0 MUCH ON ANY ONE

SOLUTION FOR SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH THE MODELS ARE LIKELY

HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING.

JAMES

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