New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

[Stevo6899]

I know that!!!!!

Basically I speak for everyone when I respectfully ask you may want to hold off mentioning severe weather until we get closer to the event.

[WxMidwest]

I'm not counting on any of these solutions till Tuesday Night at the earliest, still will be fun to watch, there is gonna be some type of New Year's suprise for someone.

[MajorLeagueStorms]

Not that it matters much at this point but I see the 0Z run of the GFS has gone with the 2 storm solution again - the second storm 'could' bring snow to southern Minnesota but it really doesn't bomb out the system until its well north of here.

Like others have said, details at this point mean very little - it should be interesting to watch. Most local media are going with a rain or freezing rain event (but fail to mention there is a ton of uncertainty at this point - something I wish they would do)...

[OhioValleyWx]

Waiting is the best thing to do right now. A 2.5 day warm pump I like but I think some numbers were overshooting a bit. I have 50s for Friday and early Saturday (SW Ohio) before the front moves through but if that front slows down and a secondary does pop to the south the cold front could become displaced a bit and cold air rushes south and east faster then it is currently progged to do so shortening the warm period. Occlusions have been fast and that is weighing on my mind at this time.

The biggest question I have is the farther northwest that low will cut the quicker the occlusion should be. Warm air will still surge ahead but a farther cut to the NW, the sooner a secondary could develop and cold air will rush towards that new low and knock temps down faster north of that second low. Quite a bit of gray area could be noticed between first, dying low and new, strengthening (relative) low. Would not be surprised some 20 degree drops in an hours time frame Friday in western zones and Saturday eastern zones. Always fun to watch and as we draw closer, a better handle will come into view but I will be stubborn and go with the quicker occlusion and new low forming then wrapping up the northern low more and trying not to form a secondary.

Josh

[L.B. LaForce]

Yes, taking a look at the 00Z GFS, the svr threat, if anything big is going to be wayyy south, where you'll get a better influx of moisture, and higher temps. This is all speculation of course, as this whole system may be a load of crap

[JoMo]

GFS Ens mean, probably will show a lot of variety in the individual members wrt 2nd system.

132:

144:

[Thundersnow12]

Basically I speak for everyone when I respectfully ask you may want to hold off mentioning severe weather until we get closer to the event.

Amen to that

[Moneyman]

It's hard enough to predict a severe weather threat 24 hrs from the event. So much has to go right. GEM and EURO should be interesting though.

GEM comes out soon right?

[Thundersnow12]

Looks like the GFS might be trending towards the EURO in a way. First storm was really weak (compared to 18z) and a storm came out of the gulf and moved NNE (was weak though)

Anyone else see this?

Yes, pretty large differences at 500mb between the 12z and 0z GFS with regards to the trof coming out and how it acts.

look at 1/1 at 12z for example on both runs.

[JoMo]

It's hard enough to predict a severe weather threat 24 hrs from the event. So much has to go right. GEM and EURO should be interesting though.

GEM comes out soon right?

GEM actually weakens the northern low to 997, pops a 1001 low across N TX, but loses it.

GEM.. refresh for latest image

@ 120

[Chicago Storm]

It's hard enough to predict a severe weather threat 24 hrs from the event. So much has to go right. GEM and EURO should be interesting though.

GEM comes out soon right?

It takes a secondary low from Texas to N. Illinois.

[Moneyman]

Nice, do you have a link at all by any chance?

[JoMo]

Nice, do you have a link at all by any chance?

all the color ones are out

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

[JoMo]

LOLGAPS is going with the secondary

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[cyclone77]

Hmm. To me the new GEM was actually a step backward in terms of a secondary low. It still shows the secondary feature, but not as impressive as at 12z. Lets see what the Euro does.

[Stebo]

Part of the problem with this system is that all the models look to blow something up along the gulf coast a day before this thing ejects out, this is going to distort the moisture return significantly if it ends up being correct.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro going stronger with the first low. 992 mb in northern Minnesota at 120 hours.

[mnweather]

Well the Euro was interesting. Going with the GFS I take it?

[Hoosier]

The 00z Euro is nothing like the 12z run as far as that secondary event.

[Moneyman]

EURO is not even close in this run tbh.

12z EURO: HR 150: 1000 MB LOW S. Canada

0z EURO: HR: 138: 980 MB LOW S. Canada

Everything else is pushed off to the east compared to 12z.

[mnweather]

Why did it do that?

[cyclone77]

Hopefully the dominant first low with the lead wave isn't the correct solution, as that leaves most of us with lots of showers and embedded rumblers, and not much else in the way of interesting weather. If the lead wave does in fact end up becoming the main storm then this will be a huge waste of major winter storm ingredients for most of us on this board. A snowstorm in the Dakotas won't satisfy about 99% of us on this site LOL. I'm sure we'll continue to see major fluctuations by all of the models and ensembles over the next few days.

[Hoosier]

On the plus side if you want to call it that, this run, with its rapidly deepening surface low and what appears to be decent moisture return (relying on 850 mb dewpoints) would probably put areas farther north back in play for at least some severe threat.

[Moneyman]

The EURO looked like it was gonna be weak at the hr 114 timeframe. It had a 1000 low or so in MN, then it just goes from 1000 to about 980 in 18-24 hours.

We just need a weak first low, will that happen? Who knows. It's been going back and forth the past few days.

[JoMo]

Hopefully the dominant first low with the lead wave isn't the correct solution, as that leaves most of us with lots of showers and embedded rumblers, and not much else in the way of interesting weather. If the lead wave does in fact end up becoming the main storm then this will be a huge waste of major winter storm ingredients for most of us on this board. A snowstorm in the Dakotas won't satisfy about 99% of us on this site LOL. I'm sure we'll continue to see major fluctuations by all of the models and ensembles over the next few days.

yeah they've been flipping back and forth the last few runs. I don't see why they won't continue to do that until Weds morning.

[JoMo]

Well, pick a solution, lol

[Stebo]

Well, pick a solution, lol

Can I have an exciting one?

[JoMo]

Can I have an exciting one?

None for your area. However, look how different the ensembles listed here are compared to the operational which is wayyyyyyy over northern Canada. Euro and GFS keep flip-flopping solutions every 12 hours or so.

[Stebo]

None for your area. However, look how different the ensembles listed here are compared to the operational which is wayyyyyyy over northern Canada. Euro and GFS keep flip-flopping solutions every 12 hours or so.

boring weather is boring.

[michsnowfreak]

It seems Im really on a different page as almost everyone, I do not want to see any severe weather at all, unless its severe snow. I guess Im just not as into severe as the rest of you guys. I mean, I love a good strong/severe spring or summer storm, but I do not look at this like, oooh well we might as well try and get severe weather if it warms up. I look at it as, its going to briefly warm up, causing fog over the snowpack probably on New Years Eve, already one of the most dangerous nights of the year to be out, then its going to get cold right away. F-THIS! I dont want severe weather, just would like to save some snowpack as ugly as it may be by then to serve as a base for the next snowfall.