Stevo6899 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 From Larry Cosgrove So he may be going with one big storm. Think maybe he wrote this before some of the models starting showing a secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Let's not attack people's reasoning. There is no reason to get bitter or angry because of non-perfect computer simulations. Let's not destroy another thread and respect opinions of everyone and enjoy the ACTUAL weather as it happens. Ultimately, the weather is not predictable and verification will be different than everyone thinks, at least to some extent. To argue over computer models is really unfortunate. Although, Ted Kaczynski is probably laughing in his cell somewhere. Completely agree. Anything is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 Severe thunder snows, with isolated snownados? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 1. Pattern Change is likely after blow torch Isn't the East coast storm the pattern change storm? I thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 DVN basically says it's way too early to tell what's going to happen. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. AGAIN...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY NONLINEAR. NO ONE MODEL SOLUTION OR MODEL WILL HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS BEFORE THERE IS ANY CONVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROF BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO OCCLUDE. THE KEY TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON FRIDAY IS WHERE DOES THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ON THE FRONT GO. SINCE YESTERDAY ALL GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE OR STRONGLY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. RIGHT NOW A BEST GUESS IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL EITHER BISECT OR MOVE UP OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It is going to be mess here due to the snowbanks covering the street drains. Then it will flash freeze Friday night. The only thing to look forward to is we are going to have cold enough air and a west wind flow to bring lake snow here to the Keweenaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FYI, 18z GFS is back to a big time low in MN. Looks like sub 990 in N. MN, 12z GFS was way weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 FYI, 18z GFS is back to a big time low in MN. Looks like sub 990 in N. MN, 12z GFS was way weaker. Looks pretty similar to the last run. A bit stronger this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's definitely not going to play ball with a subsequent storm however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Your reasoning is terrible, absolutely terrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's definitely not going to play ball with a subsequent storm however. yeah, dumps it all in that first storm. About 50/50 as to whether the 2 low situation vs the 1 strong low happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LOT has backed off the late week temps. They had us in the low to mid 50's for Friday and Saturday., they are now going with low to mid 40's. This to, shall change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 yeah, dumps it all in that first storm. About 50/50 as to whether the 2 low situation vs the 1 strong low happens. If the Euro secondary solution is still showing up within 96 hours, I know which one I'm following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If the Euro secondary solution is still showing up within 96 hours, I know which one I'm following. heh. Kansas City mentioned that only one GEFS ensemble supported that EC solution and the GGEM ensembles were split on which solution to pick. The general consensus is a wait and see approach from the Plains offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 LOT has backed off the late week temps. They had us in the low to mid 50's for Friday and Saturday., they are now going with low to mid 40's. This to, shall change... They also discuss the possibility of storms MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER 40S TO RIGHT AROUND 50F FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS WILL HINGE ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND AND POSITION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT THUS FAR AND WOULD EXPECT THE FORECAST AREA TO LIE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY MELTING SNOW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN /GFS SHOWING PWATS OVER AN INCH/ COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SATURATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY HIGH SO IF WE DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD EXPECT SOME TO BE STRONG. COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Solutions for everyone on the 18z GFS ensembles. Still appears that a couple members have the second low idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Welcome to the pattern change folks. We’ve been discussing this for a while in our TX/MX topic. What is interesting is how consistent the models have been depicting an 'event' in this timeframe. The 'finer details' remain to be seen, but at this range it does raise an eyebrow and is certainly worth watching for our entire Geographical sub forum. The dynamics look crazy. Thanks MJO pulse among other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Solutions for everyone on the 18z GFS ensembles. Still appears that a couple members have the second low idea. Looks about right, except the low seems too far north, i think it will cut through Chicago into Lake Michigan and move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STORM SYSTEMHEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY...WITH A WARM/RAINY SOLUTION MORE LIKELY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVES OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST ON WED...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OVER THE PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD RESULT IN SOME PCPN WED NIGHT/THU. INITIALLY...DEPTH OF THE SATURATION WOULD SUPPORT ONLY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN THU MORNING. RAIN WOULD BE DOMINANT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE NEXT...AND PERHAPS MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WITH THIS STORM LOOKS TO COME ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT RIDES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 00Z SAT. PCPN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FUELING WHAT SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME THUNDER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN SNOW BANDS/DEFORMATION AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE WEST/NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRI NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR CHANGING LINGERING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION VIA THIS SCENARIO. blah... GFS doesn't show a whole lot of precip here... be interesting to see what happens with this glacier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Will be interesting to see if this system trends stronger again or not.Hopefully find out in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Dude you cant just make statements without any reasoning, which you have done ever since this system was shown... I think you might be best fitted taking a back seat for a bit. What ever, i want to see what you guys can pump out, i'll make comments if need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 What ever, i want to see what you guys can pump out, i'll make comments if need I hope you understand that nobody is picking on you per say. It's just when you offer an opinion, you either a) need to provide reasonable explanation on your position or b ) be prepared for people to take your opinions worth a grain of salt. I am involved in financial investments, especially as they pertain to the stock market. It's comparable to me trying to move a client to make an investment in a certain stock by telling them supply and demand will move this stock to a higher price in the near future. Sure, supply and demand are the underlying forces of stock movement. However, giving them this explanation will leave them with a lot of questions, and I will probably not be entrusted with their funds. There are so many determinants of supply and demand, and they will likely want to know what forces will be at work at a certain time and why they will move in a particular direction. Hopefully you take this as constructive criticism and not a lecture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Could be messy across portions of the Ohio Valley Wednesday Night with some freezing rain possible before temperatures climb above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 between the 06z run from earlier and the current 00z run, 84hrs out, shows a much stronger upper air disturbance in the coming out of the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorLeagueStorms Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Depending on what happens, it could really be a mess here in southern Minnesota. We have so much snow on the ground that if we get rain (like what most models are showing right now), flooding will probably be a big issue. Of course at this point, thats a pretty big if - we will see how things look in the coming days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looks like the GFS might be trending towards the EURO in a way. First storm was really weak (compared to 18z) and a storm came out of the gulf and moved NNE (was weak though) Anyone else see this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 Looks like the GFS might be trending towards the EURO in a way. First storm was really weak (compared to 18z) and a storm came out of the gulf and moved NNE (was weak though) Anyone else see this? somewhat, i think the low is just two slow, the gfs has two strong disturbances coming out of the Rockies, it looks more favorable for severe weather than the last few runs across the Eastern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 somewhat, i think the low is just two slow, the gfs has two strong disturbances coming out of the Rockies, it looks more favorable for severe weather than the last few runs across the Eastern US You might need to realize that severe weather will most likely be confined further south than further north into the ohio valley and great lakes. More southern than eastern part of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 27, 2010 Author Share Posted December 27, 2010 You might need to realize that severe weather will most likely be confined further south than further north into the ohio valley and great lakes. More southern than eastern part of the U.S. I know that!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 The GFS will continue to have major issues for the next few days. It's had major problems in this time period all season. I'm just patiently awaiting the GEM and especially the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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