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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd


northpittweather

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Let's not attack people's reasoning. There is no reason to get bitter or angry because of non-perfect computer simulations. Let's not destroy another thread and respect opinions of everyone and enjoy the ACTUAL weather as it happens. Ultimately, the weather is not predictable and verification will be different than everyone thinks, at least to some extent.

To argue over computer models is really unfortunate. Although, Ted Kaczynski is probably laughing in his cell somewhere.

Completely agree. Anything is possible!

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DVN basically says it's way too early to tell what's going to happen.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS. AGAIN...THIS STORM

SYSTEM WILL BE SIGNIFICANT AND HIGHLY NONLINEAR. NO ONE MODEL

SOLUTION OR MODEL WILL HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM AND IT

WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS BEFORE THERE IS ANY CONVERGENCE IN

MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL

ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE TROF BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE THE

STORM TO OCCLUDE. THE KEY TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON FRIDAY IS WHERE

DOES THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ON THE FRONT GO. SINCE YESTERDAY ALL

GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE OR STRONGLY SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A

TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWFA. RIGHT NOW A BEST

GUESS IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL EITHER BISECT OR MOVE UP

OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

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If the Euro secondary solution is still showing up within 96 hours, I know which one I'm following.

heh. Kansas City mentioned that only one GEFS ensemble supported that EC solution and the GGEM ensembles were split on which solution to pick.

The general consensus is a wait and see approach from the Plains offices.

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LOT has backed off the late week temps.

They had us in the low to mid 50's for Friday and Saturday., they are now going with low to mid 40's. This to, shall change...

They also discuss the possibility of storms

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE UPPER 40S TO RIGHT AROUND 50F

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS

THE AREA. MUCH OF THIS WILL HINGE ON TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH

MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY EXISTING SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND AND POSITION OF

BAROCLINIC ZONE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT

CONSISTENT THUS FAR AND WOULD EXPECT THE FORECAST AREA TO LIE WELL

INTO THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL LEAD TO QUICKLY MELTING SNOW. THIS

COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN /GFS SHOWING PWATS OVER

AN INCH/ COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON

SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SATURATION. BUFR SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH

IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE VERY

HIGH SO IF WE DO SEE THUNDERSTORMS...WOULD EXPECT SOME TO BE STRONG.

COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY AND

COLD AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

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Welcome to the pattern change folks. We’ve been discussing this for a while in our TX/MX topic. What is interesting is how consistent the models have been depicting an 'event' in this timeframe. The 'finer details' remain to be seen, but at this range it does raise an eyebrow and is certainly worth watching for our entire Geographical sub forum. The dynamics look crazy. Thanks MJO pulse among other factors. ;)

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BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STORM SYSTEM

HEADING INTO THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY...WITH A WARM/RAINY SOLUTION MORE

LIKELY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CARVES OUT A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST

ON WED...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING OVER THE PLAINS BY FRI NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD

RESULT IN SOME PCPN WED NIGHT/THU. INITIALLY...DEPTH OF THE

SATURATION WOULD SUPPORT ONLY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN

RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN THU MORNING. RAIN WOULD BE

DOMINANT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

THE NEXT...AND PERHAPS MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WITH THIS STORM LOOKS TO

COME ON FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE MAIN PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS

NORTHEAST OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC

LOW WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT RIDES INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 00Z SAT.

PCPN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH GOOD LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FUELING WHAT SHOULD BE RAIN. SOME THUNDER

ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN SNOW BANDS/DEFORMATION AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE

WEST/NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MN. HOWEVER...COULD SEE

SOME SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRI NIGHT...WITH COLD AIR CHANGING

LINGERING RAIN OVER TO SNOW. WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION VIA

THIS SCENARIO.

blah... GFS doesn't show a whole lot of precip here... be interesting to see what happens with this glacier...

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What ever, i want to see what you guys can pump out, i'll make comments if need

I hope you understand that nobody is picking on you per say. It's just when you offer an opinion, you either a) need to provide reasonable explanation on your position or b ) be prepared for people to take your opinions worth a grain of salt.

I am involved in financial investments, especially as they pertain to the stock market. It's comparable to me trying to move a client to make an investment in a certain stock by telling them supply and demand will move this stock to a higher price in the near future. Sure, supply and demand are the underlying forces of stock movement. However, giving them this explanation will leave them with a lot of questions, and I will probably not be entrusted with their funds. There are so many determinants of supply and demand, and they will likely want to know what forces will be at work at a certain time and why they will move in a particular direction.

Hopefully you take this as constructive criticism and not a lecture.

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Depending on what happens, it could really be a mess here in southern Minnesota. We have so much snow on the ground that if we get rain (like what most models are showing right now), flooding will probably be a big issue. Of course at this point, thats a pretty big if - we will see how things look in the coming days...

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Looks like the GFS might be trending towards the EURO in a way. First storm was really weak (compared to 18z) and a storm came out of the gulf and moved NNE (was weak though)

Anyone else see this?

somewhat, i think the low is just two slow, the gfs has two strong disturbances coming out of the Rockies, it looks more favorable for severe weather than the last few runs across the Eastern US

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somewhat, i think the low is just two slow, the gfs has two strong disturbances coming out of the Rockies, it looks more favorable for severe weather than the last few runs across the Eastern US

You might need to realize that severe weather will most likely be confined further south than further north into the ohio valley and great lakes. More southern than eastern part of the U.S.

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