New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

[Hoosier]

Euro is coming into its prime butt-stomping range as far as verification goes and the GEM agrees with it. It never quite bought into the huge deepening of the first storm like the GFS did anyways, so I guess it isn't a total shocker that this is now showing up as a 2-part system. One thing I do have to caution is the SW bias of the Euro, likely causing that second piece of energy to come out too slow. Time will tell, I suppose.

Disagree...I recall the Euro having rapid deepening to 980-985 mb toward Lake Superior at least on a couple runs.

[Stevo6899]

Chicago is .75 QPF mostly snow. MKE is .5

Not bad at all.

Care to share precipitation amounts for other areas involved? Thanks

[kab2791]

My oh my, the 12Z Euro is interesting with the secondary development...

STL: 0.61 QPF (2m/850 temps below freezing, maybe sleet/freezing rain with 543-547 thicknesses)

+ 0.13 QPF all snow

PIA: 0.30 QPF (2m temps below zero, but 850s above zero and 500 thicknesses above 540)

+0.54 QPF all snow (precip probably not over yet)

ORD: 0.58QPF+ all snow after some light mixing (precip probably not over yet)

GRR: 0.44 QPF (Probably miz of snow/sleet/freezing rain, with precip not over yet)

DET: All rain through 12Z Sun, more precip to come...

The maps later will help for the later hours

[cyclone77]

Looks like the Euro is very similar to the GEM, except maybe a bit slower.

Edit: The op GFS probably won't catch on to the southern low theory for at least a few more days. It always seems to lag behind in these setups. It'll focus on the lead wave much longer than the global models.

[Stevo6899]

My oh my, the 12Z Euro is interesting with the secondary development...

STL: 0.61 QPF (2m/850 temps below freezing, maybe sleet/freezing rain with 543-547 thicknesses)

+ 0.13 QPF all snow

PIA: 0.30 QPF (2m temps below zero, but 850s above zero and 500 thicknesses above 540)

+0.54 QPF all snow (precip probably not over yet)

ORD: 0.58QPF+ all snow after some light mixing (precip probably not over yet)

GRR: 0.44 QPF (Probably miz of snow/sleet/freezing rain, with precip not over yet)

DET: All rain through 12Z Sun, more precip to come...

The maps later will help for the later hours

How do u know the precipitation types with the euro. Never used the euro pay site so just curious.

[Hoosier]

The JMA, fwiw, also likes the second low idea but is farther west with it (northwest Indiana at 144 hours).

[kab2791]

How do u know the precipitation types with the euro. Never used the euro pay site so just curious.

Its a guess based on the upper level thicknesses, upper level temps, and 2m temps.

[kab2791]

12Z Euro takes it through Lake Erie, up through Southen ON, pressue dropping to 992mb...

Other locales Like Northern IN/lower MI/OH/ON pick up 0.1-0.25 QPF in general (QPF at this time is not too important to worry about, the development of a seconday low is the important thing)

Chicago FTW this run

[okie333]

Man this is going to be a very interesting week to be sure. If the southern scenario does in fact pan out, then the potential is almost limitless. The gulf will be wide open for days, and the baroclinicy potential is enormous. All that combined with very strong mid and upper jet support screams very intense snowfall will probably fall somewhere. This is the type of storm that could easily dump a foot or more of snow over a fairly wide swath. Hopefully it won't move through a given area too fast and limit accumulations. Someone would likely get screwed by a huge dry slot with a storm system like this as well. This is all just speculation at this point, but the potential is enormous IMHO.

Would Tulsa possibly be in on this "foot or more"?

[Thundersnow12]

Euro is coming into its prime butt-stomping range as far as verification goes and the GEM agrees with it. It never quite bought into the huge deepening of the first storm like the GFS did anyways, so I guess it isn't a total shocker that this is now showing up as a 2-part system. One thing I do have to caution is the SW bias of the Euro, likely causing that second piece of energy to come out too slow. Time will tell, I suppose.

It will be interesting to see if the GFS starts to show the second sfc low over the next day or so.

[csnavywx]

Disagree...I recall the Euro having rapid deepening to 980-985 mb toward Lake Superior at least on a couple runs.

GFS had this amount of deepening when it was still in the Plains (before truncation). I don't believe the Euro ever had it anywhere near that deep that far south.

This is what I meant, should've clarified this. I knew it deepened it significantly, but if it's in Canada, who cares?

[TheWeatherPimp]

The first low will ultimately affect how far North and West the second low can go.

[cyclone77]

Would Tulsa possibly be in on this "foot or more"?

It's obviously just potential at this point, but at this point everyone's in the game. Basically about anything's possible at this point.

With several of the models over the past couple days advertising a very strong storm, it gives you an idea that there's plenty of potential with whatever this long wave trough decides to do.

[Chicago WX]

Ah what the heck, but the 0z lolgaps had the second low idea, albeit farther east.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_0z/nogapsloop.html

Regardless, a very interesting scenario, with all kinds of weather, seems to be playing out on the models right now. Should be fun to watch this one unfold.

[The_Global_Warmer]

amazing how one day can change everything....this is a classic situation for our area to get a major snow event. and the kind that heads NE or NNE if it really bombs that can give us snow, LAF, Chicago and so on.

I wonder if this can close off at H5.

[OhioValleyWx]

The key for me is that we have had rapid occluding lows since last winter and continuing into the start of this winter, so does this continue? Does the northern low simply run out of warm air advection and forcing and rapidly occlude leading to a broad, second low to develop farther downstream closer to the warm air profiles; then when that low loses its power, do we get another low to form farther south? This is unusual but the warm profiles simply are not as strong as they used to be from the 1990s until now. It is too early to know how the system will play out but as storms have moved eastward, the low simply gets choked of its warm air supply and a secondary low forms south of there. I am leaning that way but a few more days are needed to really see how this all plays out.

That first low will be over MN and into N MI and S Canada but it could very well be losing its punch by the time it is in that locale with some broad low forming in MO, IL, IN, etc.

Josh

[northpittweather]

Seems like this storm is going to be a high impact storm of possibly both types of weather (winter and severe weather)

The main question is will there be one stronger storm or two weaker lows, personally the one stronger storm seems to be more favorable because of the weather pattern coming up (the models in the medium range have been not great with the last 2 storms including the current Nor Easter on the East Coast and the Midwestern Blizzard 2 weeks ago)

Don't be shocked if the Models by later tonight or tomorrow starts showing a stronger single system (hours 100 through 180 or so has not been great at all)

[Chagrin Falls]

A morph to an anafront is possible in the eastern Midwest as the front slows down, the dynamics go north into Canada and the leading edge of the cold air becomes very shallow. The 12Z ECMWF doesn't show much moisture associated ahead of the front by the time it reaches Ohio. The warm air ridging is going to be significant and the trend is for this front to slow down, especially with decreasing dynamics.

[northpittweather]

A morph to an anafront is possible in the eastern Midwest as the front slows down, the dynamics go north into Canada and the leading edge of the cold air becomes very shallow. The 12Z ECMWF doesn't show much moisture associated ahead of the front by the time it reaches Ohio. The warm air ridging is going to be significant and the trend is for this front to slow down, especially with decreasing dynamics.

Doesn't seem right with the pattern coming up, still seems like the stronger single system is more likely than what the map shows above

[Hoosier]

Doesn't seem right with the pattern coming up, still seems like the stronger single system is more likely than what the map shows above

You gotta give some reasoning if you're going to keep throwing this out there.

[OhioValleyWx]

A morph to an anafront is possible in the eastern Midwest as the front slows down, the dynamics go north into Canada and the leading edge of the cold air becomes very shallow. The 12Z ECMWF doesn't show much moisture associated ahead of the front by the time it reaches Ohio. The warm air ridging is going to be significant and the trend is for this front to slow down, especially with decreasing dynamics.

I am leaning that way but this winter has been nothing normal over the last 20 years, so I would not be surprised if a 3rd scenario tries to pop out and then end up with something in between all three.

Josh

[northpittweather]

You gotta give some reasoning if you're going to keep throwing this out there.

Just the overall pattern coming seems conductive to a warm up and some type of storm, with a blast of arctic air moving south, i already gave reasoning

1. Pattern Change is likely after blow torch

2. A Double Storm like on the GFS and EURO isn't likely, + it's in the inaccurate medium range

3. It's La Nina and this storm is conductive during a La Nina

[daddylonglegs]

I'm going with low 60Fs for Milwaukee... anyone?

[TheWeatherPimp]

Just the overall pattern coming seems conductive to a warm up and some type of storm, with a blast of arctic air moving south, i already gave reasoning

1. Pattern Change is likely after blow torch

2. A Double Storm like on the GFS and EURO isn't likely, + it's in the inaccurate medium range

3. It's La Nina and this storm is conductive during a La Nina

Your reasoning is terrible, absolutely terrible!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[daddylonglegs]

Awesome thread!

[northpittweather]

From Larry Cosgrove

Cyclogenesis will get underway off of the coast of Oregon on Tuesday, with the impulse dropping southeastward into California and Nevada before recurving toward the TX Panhandle on December 30. As of now, most of the computer schemes favor a track along the "Panhandle Hooker A" route, that is from near Amarillo TX into Lake Superior. Typically, this type of path is a very wet and stormy one for the Mississippi and Ohio Valley watershed. Snow and ice considerations are relegated to the Great Plains after the system leaves the Intermountain Region, with severe thunderstorms possible from TX and OK into the Corn and Tobacco Belts. Very cold Arctic values will push out the warmer regime over the eastern states by the end of the holiday weekend.

[TheWeatherPimp]

From Larry Cosgrove

If you would read the rest of Larry's discussion, he goes into detail about why he supports the idea of a second area of low pressure forming!

[Hoosier]

2. A Double Storm like on the GFS and EURO isn't likely, + it's in the inaccurate medium range

Indeed it is...so on that note, how do we know that the previous GFS solution isn't the inaccurate one? Clearly there's going to be a storm or 3 with all of the energy coming into the west coast, but the details are up for grabs.

[Chagrin Falls]

Let's not attack people's reasoning. There is no reason to get bitter or angry because of non-perfect computer simulations. Let's not destroy another thread and respect opinions of everyone and enjoy the ACTUAL weather as it happens. Ultimately, the weather is not predictable and verification will be different than everyone thinks, at least to some extent.

To argue over computer models is really unfortunate. Although, Ted Kaczynski is probably laughing in his cell somewhere.

[hoosierwx]

Seems like this storm is going to be a high impact storm of possibly both types of weather (winter and severe weather)

The main question is will there be one stronger storm or two weaker lows, personally the one stronger storm seems to be more favorable because of the weather pattern coming up (the models in the medium range have been not great with the last 2 storms including the current Nor Easter on the East Coast and the Midwestern Blizzard 2 weeks ago)

Don't be shocked if the Models by later tonight or tomorrow starts showing a stronger single system (hours 100 through 180 or so has not been great at all)

Severe thunder snows, with isolated snownados?