New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

[Chicago WX]

12z GGEM 0-180 hours: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=180&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en

[Chagrin Falls]

What are you guys looking at? I can perhaps see a slight risk of severe weather in the Great Plains as the low vacates the Rockies, but after that it becomes occluded and weakening with a unfavorable upper-air pattern. The dying energy that is left high tails it to Labrador as the surface features slow down. I see a lot of stratiform rain for places like Indiana & Ohio.

[Stevo6899]

Man this is going to be a very interesting week to be sure. If the southern scenario does in fact pan out, then the potential is almost limitless. The gulf will be wide open for days, and the baroclinicy potential is enormous. All that combined with very strong mid and upper jet support screams very intense snowfall will probably fall somewhere. This is the type of storm that could easily dump a foot or more of snow over a fairly wide swath. Hopefully it won't move through a given area too fast and limit accumulations. Someone would likely get screwed by a huge dry slot with a storm system like this as well. This is all just speculation at this point, but the potential is enormous IMHO.

I was thinking the same but wouldnt the 2 decently strong lows that already went through minnesota sort of exhaust the energy out of the atmopshere for a few days? I know the GOM is open but that would be my worry.

[JoMo]

http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html

Thank you. Looks like it stays just barely to the SE of my area.

[northpittweather]

What are you guys looking at? I can perhaps see a slight risk of severe weather in the Great Plains as the low vacates the Rockies, but after that it becomes occluded and weakening with a unfavorable upper-air pattern. The dying energy that is left high tails it to Labrador as the surface features slow down. I see a lot of stratiform rain for places like Indiana & Ohio.

We seeing many impressive signs that point to a stronger system but the models are having some issues, and we will see the right solution in a few days

Great Plains to Ohio Valley and even the Mid Atlantic/Appalachians are going to see a warm up and severe storms could be a side effect

[The_Global_Warmer]

we have seen this before give us 4-8 inch snows here.

many times there is quite a large deformation zone on the backside. Timing it so crucial though and would take within 36 hours to pin down.

[michsnowfreak]

Its a LLLONG way to go, but I feared the trends as the week wore on would go in the opposite direction, meaning more blowtorch, ala Jan 2008. Its hard to remember in a winter that saw nearly double average snowfall over much of the great lakes, but there was a blowtorch of mid-60s for a few days in early January. I can still remember that, in a 78-inch winter no less, that week was sickening.

But anyway, now it looks like instead of a few days of low 50s, we will only briefly sneak up into the mid-40s (depending how much fog, etc, we may not lose the entire snowpack). And now theres already hints of a secondary southern low? Decent trends!

[The_Global_Warmer]

some of the ensembles hinting at it.

[tornadotony]

We seeing many impressive signs that point to a stronger system but the models are having some issues, and we will see the right solution in a few days

Great Plains to Ohio Valley and even the Mid Atlantic/Appalachians are going to see a warm up and severe storms could be a side effect

You need to chill...it's far too early to delineate specific threat areas...especially N of the OH Valley...

[cyclone77]

I was thinking the same but wouldnt the 2 decently strong lows that already went through minnesota sort of exhaust the energy out of the atmopshere for a few days? I know the GOM is open but that would be my worry.

The northern low associated with the lead wave is much weaker than forecast a few days ago. The stronger shortwaves arrive later on, and ignite rapid cyclogenesis over the southern US. I haven't looked much into the severe weather aspect, as I've been focusing more on the snowstorm potential.

[JoMo]

I was thinking the same but wouldnt the 2 decently strong lows that already went through minnesota sort of exhaust the energy out of the atmopshere for a few days? I know the GOM is open but that would be my worry.

Nah, he's saying that the models put too much emphasis on a lead wave and not enough on the one possibly farther south. It blows the low up over MN instead of blowing one up farther south.

[northpittweather]

You need to chill...it's far too early to delineate specific threat areas...especially N of the OH Valley...

Dude i am saying it's a possibility, it's one of those 50/50 things as of now

[TheWeatherPimp]

I disagree about only seeing stratiform rain across Indiana and even portions of Ohio. With the low not forecast to occlude until it is way North of the Ohio Valley, I think you will see a widespread severe weather threat across Oklahoma/Texas/Arkansas/Missouri and into portions of the Southwest Lower Ohio Valley on the 30th. By the 31st and the 1st, WAA should be cranking across portions of the Ohio and Tenn Valley and with a strengthening surface low, all kinds of upper support and some weak instability developing, the threat of at least isolated to scattered strong and severe storms is definitely real.

The snow cover should be gone by Thursday and into Friday and I'm guessing, don't hang me for saying this, that we'll see 60 degree temperatures realized as far North as Illinois and Indiana.

[Hoosier]

What are you guys looking at? I can perhaps see a slight risk of severe weather in the Great Plains as the low vacates the Rockies, but after that it becomes occluded and weakening with a unfavorable upper-air pattern. The dying energy that is left high tails it to Labrador as the surface features slow down. I see a lot of stratiform rain for places like Indiana & Ohio.

Yesterday's run would've suggested severe potential north of the Ohio River but the latest runs are less favorable as they have sped up and call into question the amount of moisture return farther north. Still really far out there and unclear if this trend will continue or flip back as we get closer.

[northpittweather]

Yesterday's run would've suggested severe potential north of the Ohio River but the latest runs are less favorable as they have sped up and call into question the amount of moisture return farther north. Still really far out there and unclear if this trend will continue or flip back as we get closer.

I am starting to doubt that the this trend will continue, this storm will start having the appearance of the January 2008 storm and will bring a warm sector up north possibly bigger than that storm

[Hoosier]

A lot of questions right now. Will we have 1 low or 2 lows? Which one will be the stronger one? Where will the second one go?

[L.B. LaForce]

I am starting to doubt that the this trend will continue, this storm will start having the appearance of the January 2008 storm and will bring a warm sector up north possibly bigger than that storm

Synoptically speaking, this trough is a bit sharper than that of the January 2008 storm. The current model solutions however do show a pretty decent example of a full latitude trough.

[Moneyman]

EURO is out to hr 132.

12z 132: 1008 LOW in N. MN

0z 144: Sub 1008 LOW in UP

[Hoosier]

12z Euro looks like it's going to try to focus on the second low. The first one isn't even below 1000 mb when it leaves the US.

[Thundersnow12]

You need to chill...it's far too early to delineate specific threat areas...especially N of the OH Valley...

we have been trying to tell him that..

[Moneyman]

12z EURO: Hr 150: Sub 1004 MB LOW in S. Canada, due north of the UP. 1008 LOW in Texas

0z EURO: Hr 162: Sub 1000 MB LOW in SE Canada, due north of MI. 1012 LOW in S. Texas.

[WxMidwest]

If the Primary Storm isn't going to be as strong as originally progged, expect differences in the baroclinic zone, and not quite as much warming and snow-pack melt.

[Moneyman]

Euro looks a lot slower.

12z EURO Hr 162: LT-MOD precip over Chicago.

0z EURO Hr 174: Mod precip in Indiana.

Not sure how strong it is though.

[tornadotony]

If the Primary Storm isn't going to be as strong as originally progged, expect differences in the baroclinic zone, and not quite as much warming and snow-pack melt.

Not necessarily...it depends on the positioning of the baroclinic zone...you can still get monstrous WAA w/o a strong sfc reflection...see 1/7/08.

[Moneyman]

HR 168 has a 1008 LOW in TN. 0z EURO had a 1008 LOW in the Ohio, lake Erie area.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro looks icy for LAF. Ice changing to snow with the second system.

[Moneyman]

Looks like maybe 3-6 inches for Chicago for the 2nd storm (if that). W. IND looks to be ice, changing to snow. LOW gets down to about 1000 MB at HR 174. Wide area of 1000 pressure in SE. Canada, Ohio, and Lake Erie area.

[northpittweather]

I Just have a gut feeling this isn't the right the solution, the storm just looks weird and out of wack

[Moneyman]

Chicago is .75 QPF mostly snow. MKE is .5

Not bad at all.

[csnavywx]

Euro is coming into its prime butt-stomping range as far as verification goes and the GEM agrees with it. It never quite bought into the huge deepening of the first storm like the GFS did anyways, so I guess it isn't a total shocker that this is now showing up as a 2-part system. One thing I do have to caution is the SW bias of the Euro, likely causing that second piece of energy to come out too slow. Time will tell, I suppose.