New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

[cyclone77]

Boy, the Euro sure has the look of wanting to blow up a strong surface low over northeast Texas at 168hr.

[Stebo]

Boy, the Euro sure has the look of wanting to blow up a strong surface low over northeast Texas at 168hr.

Here's 192

[Hoosier]

Here's 192

Interesting...looks like a second low which gives LAF a significant snowstorm.

[JoMo]

The GGEM also has a feature but it doesn't blow up though across Texas at 156. Also 0z GFS Ensemble P003, and P004 show some kind of feature across Texas as well that pushes out with precip behind the front and even develops a low.

Of course this will all be gone on the 12z runs.

[Stebo]

The GGEM also has a feature but it doesn't blow up though across Texas at 156. Also 0z GFS Ensemble P003, and P004 show some kind of feature across Texas as well that pushes out with precip behind the front and even develops a low.

Of course this will all be gone on the 12z runs.

True :/

[tornadotony]

The 00z Euro is trending more toward a "typical" winter severe pattern for the midwest for New Year's Eve, with more prolonged moisture return and a weaker sfc low, and a major, major, major, major threat (if it were to verify verbatim) for the mid-south and southeast New Year's Day into the 2nd.

[hawkeye_wx]

NWS now officially has 50s in the forecast for southeast Iowa Friday. Good-bye snow.

[daddylonglegs]

So what...this thing is a big dud up here? GFS really doesn't look too impressive on amounts (rain)... Looks like temps *could* climb into the low 40's here. Not sure how the snow pack will handle these temps/rain.

[roardog]

It should be a fog lovers paradise.

[Stevo6899]

Here's 192

This most likely occurs if the first couple waves are weak and energy is left in the SW? Would be nice, by new years that will be 3 weeks since weve seen any snow period.

[cyclone77]

Yeah if you see any sun in your areas over the next few days enjoy it, because starting Wednesday the entire Midwest will be buried under low clouds and fog.

[Chicago WX]

0z Euro FTW. Snow melter and then a snow adder. One can dream.

[mnweather]

12Z GFS still cuts the low through MN. Seems to strengthen more towards the Canadian border.

[cyclone77]

12z GEM has a surface low closed off in southeast Texas at 144 hours. This thing could really rip it up if it cuts north-northeast from there. Looking at the H5 trough, it kind of looks like it wants to, to me.

The base of the H5 trough looks much less rounded, and has more of a tight V shape to it. That would seem to indicate it may have some residual energy rounding the base at that time. I guess we'll see what the new Euro shows.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Nearly all of the models are showing some leftover energy at the base of the trough. It will be interesting to watch this play out over the next several days as it would appear there is a pretty descent possibility of seeing a second area of slp develop.

[mnweather]

12z GEM has a surface low closed off in southeast Texas at 144 hours. This thing could really rip it up if it cuts north-northeast from there. Looking at the H5 trough, it kind of looks like it wants to, to me.

The base of the H5 trough looks much less rounded, and has more of a tight V shape to it. That would seem to indicate it may have some residual energy rounding the base at that time. I guess we'll see what the new Euro shows.

Will be interesting. Could be quite a QPF producer! Will be fun to watch.

[cyclone77]

This may be a bit of wish casting, but the models may be trending towards what I was mentioning yesterday morning. Sometimes the models overdevelop the lead wave, and blow the thing up too quickly. The secondary wave(s) a lot of the time end up being stronger, and we go through a period where the storm appears to weaken, only to wind up with a stronger/further south main storm system. The weakening process of the northern storm has already begun. The 00z Euro hinted at a stronger/more southeasterly developing storm after the first wave passes well to the north. The new Euro will definitely be interesting. Hopefully it continues the trend.

[northpittweather]

I can't wait to see what Larry Cosgrove is going to say about this storm

I think a large severe threat will likely exist from New Years Eve to the 2nd of January

[JoMo]

This may be a bit of wish casting, but the models may be trending towards what I was mentioning yesterday morning. Sometimes the models overdevelop the lead wave, and blow the thing up too quickly. The secondary wave(s) a lot of the time end up being stronger, and we go through a period where the storm appears to weaken, only to wind up with a stronger/further south main storm system. The weakening process of the northern storm has already begun. The 00z Euro hinted at a stronger/more southeasterly developing storm after the first wave passes well to the north. The new Euro will definitely be interesting. Hopefully it continues the trend.

yeah last night the Euro and UKMET both hung energy back, the GGEM hung some back as well but never did develop it, and a few of the GFS Ensembles did as well.

[Thundersnow12]

between watching the east coast blizzard and this...its going to be a fun next few days. gotta love this pattern!

[cyclone77]

The new GEM only strengthens the northern surface low to a little under 1000mb by 144 hours. There's no way the surface low will be that weak when we have so much baroclinicy to work with, not to mention the intense wind fields at all levels. We may be on the verge of seeing explosive development near the base of the trough. Time will tell...

[cyclone77]

yeah last night the Euro and UKMET both hung energy back, the GGEM hung some back as well but never did develop it, and a few of the GFS Ensembles did as well.

Yep. The 12z GFS ensembles will be interesting to look at, although I think the GEM and Euro will be quicker to pick up on something like this than even the GFS ensembles. I can't see any of the Euro ensembles, but I bet the 12z version will be interesting.

[northpittweather]

This my map thinking where the low will go, at this current time

[snowstormcanuck]

GGEM does indeed spawn a secondary low along the front, running up the OH Valley into Lk Erie. Chicago gets fringed but a nice moderate hit along a Cape Girardeau to Flint axis. No snow for me as usual.

[cyclone77]

GGEM does indeed spawn a secondary low along the front, running up the OH Valley into Lk Erie. Chicago gets fringed but a nice moderate hit along a Cape Girardeau to Flint axis. No snow for me as usual.

There we go. It would be a nice hit from St. Louis, up through LAF, into much of Michigan.

[daddylonglegs]

Pitt...pull that snowstorm north.. There is no way i see snow out of this thing...

GFS totally killed precip amts here.

[Chicago WX]

GGEM does indeed spawn a secondary low along the front, running up the OH Valley into Lk Erie. Chicago gets fringed but a nice moderate hit along a Cape Girardeau to Flint axis. No snow for me as usual.

There we go. It would be a nice hit from St. Louis, up through LAF, into much of Michigan.

I'll temper my enthusiasm for now.

[cyclone77]

Man this is going to be a very interesting week to be sure. If the southern scenario does in fact pan out, then the potential is almost limitless. The gulf will be wide open for days, and the baroclinicy potential is enormous. All that combined with very strong mid and upper jet support screams very intense snowfall will probably fall somewhere. This is the type of storm that could easily dump a foot or more of snow over a fairly wide swath. Hopefully it won't move through a given area too fast and limit accumulations. Someone would likely get screwed by a huge dry slot with a storm system like this as well. This is all just speculation at this point, but the potential is enormous IMHO.

[JoMo]

GGEM does indeed spawn a secondary low along the front, running up the OH Valley into Lk Erie. Chicago gets fringed but a nice moderate hit along a Cape Girardeau to Flint axis. No snow for me as usual.

You have a link to the GGEM past 144 on the 12z run or you paysite it?

[cyclone77]

You have a link to the GGEM past 144 on the 12z run or you paysite it?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html