Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

[DanLarsen34]

Also worth noting this. 

 

[Amped]

Here's a research paper from 2013 on the Tristate Tornado.   The longest continuous path of damage path might be similar.

Quote

Beginning in central Madison County, MO, and continuing to Pike County, IN, a distance of 280 km (174 mi), there are no gaps >3.2 km (2 mi), more strongly suggesting that the tornado was likely continuous for that path segment.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268801867_The_1925_Tri-State_Tornado_Damage_Path_and_Associated_Storm_System

 

[cheese007]

 

[nwohweather]

substance-lacking post but this stuff is seriously just nuts to think about. I wonder how much energy is required to tear apart reinforced concrete like that... Or move two hundred ton rail cars and stuff. It is actually insane to think that the atmosphere is capable of producing such a concentrated release of energy

Foundations can usually are built to handle 4,000 PSI

[Malacka11]

25 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Foundations can usually are built to handle 4,000 PSI

So generally speaking, what does the most damage to a structure when a tornado hits it? Would it be flying debris or the winds themselves? 

[brianc33710]

On 12/13/2021 at 7:51 PM, CryHavoc said:

I would posit that Jarrell, Phil Campbell, and Smithville are 3 of the strongest tornadoes in history, at least in the modern era.

But if you had asked me a week ago if we'd ever see another tornado to rival the Tri-State, I would have laughed because as inconceivable as EF5s are, a path length of over 200 miles is just as rare as one with an intensity of those three storms.  Perhaps even more rare, since I don't think we have anything on the books that was even within 80% of the TST.

Records are meant to be broken, and unfortunately I think it's a virtual certainty we'll see another day similar to 4/27.  It might be 5 years from now or 50, but eventually the synoptic parameters will be in place to unleash another near perfect outbreak of tornadoes.

Read about the April 1977 Smithfield Tornado just outside of Birmingham, AL. That 1 supposedly almost convinced Fujita to give it a F-6 rating.

[brianc33710]

7 hours ago, sigerson said:

he magnitude of this event made it emotionally troubling for every team member.” Somewhere in my notes is a comment by an NWS met after LeeCounty, saying that some mets (probably the younger ones) treated it all like a video game, with all the gee-whiz computer stuff, until something awful happened on their watch. Then, it became very, very real.

I know that Jim Stefkovich, Head Meteorologist at the Birmingham, AL NWS at the time of the 27 April 2011 Superoutbreak said something similar to this as it related to the debris balls from that Superoutbreak. I thought he said it in this clip from his presentation to the Alabama EMA about the Superoutbreak but its not quite word for word in this video. But Im almost certain this quote came from Jim as he mentions how those in his office felt when the debris balls appeared. In case the hyperlink doesnt work Ill share it below too.

Edit: Im adding part 1/2 here for those who want to watch it. Part 2/2 is the link given above.

EDIT TWO: Jim says these exact words in the first 90 seconds of his presentation from that Superoutbreak that August at TEDxTalks Red Mountain. I knew it was Jim I just had to find the right video. Ill leave the top 2 cause some still might want to see them.
 

 

[DanLarsen34]

 

[cheese007]

As a counterpoint to the previous tweet. Would not be shocked if EF-4 is the final rating

[Chreeyiss]

31 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

As a counterpoint to the previous tweet. Would not be shocked if EF-4 is the final rating

Surprising to me that not even those houses in that lakefront community (I think near Earlington?) count. I guess building codes aren’t sufficient even in the wealthier areas.

[sigerson]

13 hours ago, brianc33710 said:

Jim says these exact words in the first 90 seconds of his presentation from that Superoutbreak that August at TEDxTalks Red Mountain. I knew it was Jim I just had to find the right video.

Thank you, Brian. This is what I remember hearing. I've been busy scouring WeatherBrains for the quote.

[Calderon]

3 hours ago, Chreeyiss said:

Surprising to me that not even those houses in that lakefront community (I think near Earlington?) count. I guess building codes aren’t sufficient even in the wealthier areas.

Those are the areas he said he couldn't get access to on Kentucky Lake northeast of Benton. 

[andyhb]

3 hours ago, Chreeyiss said:

Surprising to me that not even those houses in that lakefront community (I think near Earlington?) count. I guess building codes aren’t sufficient even in the wealthier areas.

He didn't survey there.

[Chreeyiss]

Ah, missed that. Thanks for the clarification.

[Calderon]

PAH has updated to EF3+ preliminary with winds of 190mph now. It's trending in an obvious direction.

[Buckeye05]

NWS Paducah now has the Mayfield tornado wind estimate in the high-end EF4 range.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, Calderon said:

PAH has updated to EF3+ preliminary with winds of 190mph now. It's trending in an obvious direction.

Need over 200 mph for EF-5, right?  200 exactly won't do it?

[Indystorm]

I wonder if Tim Marshall surveyed west of Dawson Springs and Mayfield

[Calderon]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Need over 200 mph for EF-5, right?  200 exactly won't do it?

Correct, 201mph is EF-5. The 2011 Chickasha, OK tornado is listed as a 200mph EF-4 with "plausible EF5" actually in their damage assessment text and is still a point of questioning. 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Correct, 201mph is EF-5. The 2011 Chickasha, OK tornado is listed as a 200mph EF-4 with "plausible EF5" actually in their damage assessment text and is still a point of questioning. 

Hope we don't see something like that with this one.  The weenies need definitive answers.

[CheeselandSkies]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hope we don't see something like that with this one.  The weenies need definitive answers.

Wasn't Rochelle also pegged right at 200 MPH?

[Buckeye05]

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Wasn't Rochelle also pegged right at 200 MPH?

Yeah Rochelle is in the books as a “200 MPH EF4” as is Chapman, KS 2016.

[Chicago Storm]

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[Chicago Storm]

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.


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[BuffaloWeather]

[Santa Clause]

Of course lol

[hlcater]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.


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I'd be quite surprised if they stick with 190.

[Calderon]

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.


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Vilonia, AR would like to enter the chat. 

[McHenrySnow]

11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.


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I knew they'd never go EF-5. 

[hlcater]

Just now, McHenrySnow said:

I knew they'd never go EF-5. 

I bet you did