Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

[Stebo]

2 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

That's much better news.

I found an article with more info on the candle factory:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spokesman-8-factory-workers-dead-8-missing-from-tornado/ar-AARJOeB

“Many of the employees were gathered in the tornado shelter and after the storm was over they left the plant and went to their homes,” said Bob Ferguson, a spokesman for the company. “With the power out and no landline they were hard to reach initially. We’re hoping to find more of those eight unaccounted as we try their home residences.”

 

Unfortunately there's an ugly lie going around Twitter and YouTube this afternoon claiming candle factory workers weren't allowed to seek shelter because of their race.  Needs to be nipped in the bud, but will probably become an established urban myth.

Not a lie...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kentucky-tornado-factory-workers-threatened-firing-left-tornado-employ-rcna8581

[DanLarsen34]

When I mentioned earlier today that the damage NE of Mayfield was most likely to end up at EF-5, this is what part of the reason why. 
 

The damage in Bremen is extremely intense. The forest damage alone is about as bad as any I’ve seen. It’s very reminiscent of some of the most intense damage we saw from some of the worst 4-27-2011 tornadoes. That alone won’t lead to an EF-5 rating, of course, but it’s important contextual evidence. 

[Amped]

4 hours ago, wxman_ind said:

There is a process to go through before EF-4 or 5 ratings are given, and it takes time.

Exactly. I still don't have any doubt this was an EF5.

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Exactly. I still don't have any doubt this was an EF5.

Same, to me it is a question of how strong of an ef-5 and how many damage indicators there are into the ef-5 category

[CryHavoc]

20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Same, to me it is a question of how strong of an ef-5 and how many damage indicators there are into the ef-5 category

Agreed.  It's already one of the most impressive tornadic events of all-time.

My only thought now is just how violent it was at peak.  Is it comparable to say, Plainfield/Rainsville?  Or stronger, like Smithville/El Reno (2011)?  Or even stronger than those?

Undoubtedly we haven't seen every piece of damage from this storm, and IIRC some of the most telling photos from 4/27 were only found/made public several days or even a week later, like the ground scouring from Philadelphia in 2011.

Btw, love Mr. Perfect. One of my fondest memories as a kid watching him wrestle. 

[Buckeye05]

10 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Agreed.  It's already one of the most impressive tornadic events of all-time.

My only thought now is just how violent it was at peak.  Is it comparable to say, Plainfield/Rainsville?  Or stronger, like Smithville/El Reno (2011)?  Or even stronger than those?

Undoubtedly we haven't seen every piece of damage from this storm, and IIRC some of the most telling photos from 4/27 were only found/made public several days or even a week later, like the ground scouring from Philadelphia in 2011.

Not to derail the thread, we may go the rest of out lives without ever seeing a tornado as violent as Smithville ever again. That one was in a league of its own, to the point where you can't really compare it with the "average" EF5. That said, I'd say that Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the closest match to this recent one when it comes to comparing previous EF5 events.

[CryHavoc]

51 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Not to derail the thread, we may go the rest of out lives without ever seeing a tornado as violent as Smithville ever again. That one was in a league of its own, to the point where you can't really compare it with the "average" EF5. That said, I'd say that Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the closest match to this recent one when it comes to comparing previous EF5 events.

I would posit that Jarrell, Phil Campbell, and Smithville are 3 of the strongest tornadoes in history, at least in the modern era.

But if you had asked me a week ago if we'd ever see another tornado to rival the Tri-State, I would have laughed because as inconceivable as EF5s are, a path length of over 200 miles is just as rare as one with an intensity of those three storms.  Perhaps even more rare, since I don't think we have anything on the books that was even within 80% of the TST.

Records are meant to be broken, and unfortunately I think it's a virtual certainty we'll see another day similar to 4/27.  It might be 5 years from now or 50, but eventually the synoptic parameters will be in place to unleash another near perfect outbreak of tornadoes.

[zinski1990]

10 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I would posit that Jarrell, Phil Campbell, and Smithville are 3 of the strongest tornadoes in history, at least in the modern era.

But if you had asked me a week ago if we'd ever see another tornado to rival the Tri-State, I would have laughed because as inconceivable as EF5s are, a path length of over 200 miles is just as rare as one with an intensity of those three storms.  Perhaps even more rare, since I don't think we have anything on the books that was even within 80% of the TST.

Records are meant to be broken, and unfortunately I think it's a virtual certainty we'll see another day similar to 4/27.  It might be 5 years from now or 50, but eventually the synoptic parameters will be in place to unleash another near perfect outbreak of tornadoes.

I always thought the Philadelphia tornado on 4/27 was the strongest for some reason. 70 mph movement and 2 ft ground scouring. Imagine if that one hit more structures like others did that day

[nwohweather]

It really speaks for itself how violent this tornado really was. It’s been 8 years since we’ve had an EF5 in the United States, so the fact it seems like a slam dunk is very telling. I’d compare this a lot with Greensburg though, especially with the rail car damage

[yoda]

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

Not a lie...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/kentucky-tornado-factory-workers-threatened-firing-left-tornado-employ-rcna8581

Thats just infuriating 

[yoda]

4 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

 

H/T @North Balti Zen

Posted in our subforum... reposting it in here

[DanLarsen34]

12 hours ago, Buckeye05 said:

Not to derail the thread, we may go the rest of out lives without ever seeing a tornado as violent as Smithville ever again. That one was in a league of its own, to the point where you can't really compare it with the "average" EF5. That said, I'd say that Hackleburg-Phil Campbell is probably the closest match to this recent one when it comes to comparing previous EF5 events.

Smithville is definitely near or at the top of any strongest tornadoes ever list. It caused some of the worst damage we’ve ever seen, yet it only affected the areas it hit for 1-2 seconds if I remember correctly because of how fast its forward speed was. 
 

Hackleburg-Phil Campbell, though, is right up there too. It’s in almost a league of its own because of the fact that it produced consistent EF-5 damage for dozens of miles along its path. The Mayfield Tornado may be similar given the pictures we’ve seen, but we’ll have to wait for the official surveys to confirm. 

[cheese007]

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all

[Chicago Storm]

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all

The area from just NE of Samburg up to along the KY/TN border has always been the question mark, so good so see at least some bits of confirmation on that now.


.

[Chreeyiss]

5 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Looks like the tri-state record may stand after all

It can but honestly it probably shouldn’t. Each of these events are likely similar in that they are probably not continuous.

[marsman]

Anyone post this yet? Visible ground scar on a satellite image from Dec 13th. Madisonville, KY is in the center of the map, the Cumberland River is at the bottom left.

[Chicago Storm]

Putting together information that has been provided thus far…

Path length is currently ~163 miles across PAH and LMK CWA’s in KY. This is from the KY/TN border in Graves Co KY, up to the Breckinridge/Grayson County KY borders.


.

[Windspeed]

This may have to be tabbed a special indicator by the survey crew, not unlike the ripped up hospital parking stops for the Joplin EF5, but this rebar enforced concrete foundation was annihilated at a home site in Bremen.

[Malacka11]

substance-lacking post but this stuff is seriously just nuts to think about. I wonder how much energy is required to tear apart reinforced concrete like that... Or move two hundred ton rail cars and stuff. It is actually insane to think that the atmosphere is capable of producing such a concentrated release of energy

[CryHavoc]

45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This may have to be tabbed a special indicator by the survey crew, not unlike the ripped up hospital parking stops for the Joplin EF5, but this rebar enforced concrete foundation was annihilated at a home site in Bremen.

I wish the guy who posted those photos kept them public, you can't see them now.

[madwx]

6 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

I wish the guy who posted those photos kept them public, you can't see them now.

probably too many wx weenies hounded his Facebook asking him if it was EF5 damage

[Hoosier]

NWS PAH has the path plotted on their event page.

[Normandy]

Upon closer inspection of this photo, I do not see the rebar within the pieces of concrete (you would see them sticking out the edges).  That being said there is ample evidence that this was EF-5

[largetornado]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

Upon closer inspection of this photo, I do not see the rebar within the pieces of concrete (you would see them sticking out the edges).  That being said there is ample evidence that this was EF-5

I AM NOT DISCOUNTING THE DAMAGE. However, that concrete work was improperly done. They didn’t pull the rebar up and it basically sat at the bottom of the pour (if they pulled it up, no way that concrete breaks like that or there would at least be evidence of the rebar in the concrete). In other words, that rebar provided little if any strength) I’m very curious where the hell that rebar grid went as post tornado pictures just show gravel. 

[CryHavoc]

4 minutes ago, largetornado said:

I AM NOT DISCOUNTING THE DAMAGE. However, that concrete work was improperly done. They didn’t pull the rebar up and it basically sat at the bottom of the pour (if they pulled it up, no way that concrete breaks like that or there would at least be evidence of the rebar in the concrete). In other words, that rebar provided little if any strength) I’m very curious where the hell that rebar grid went as post tornado pictures just show gravel. 

It's possible it shows up in the other photos, but yeah, the two highlighted do not in fact show rebar in the structure.

[luckyweather]

substance-lacking post but this stuff is seriously just nuts to think about. I wonder how much energy is required to tear apart reinforced concrete like that... Or move two hundred ton rail cars and stuff. It is actually insane to think that the atmosphere is capable of producing such a concentrated release of energy

This is actually a really interesting way to look at tornados and weather events, imho. It very well could have produced the highest recorded energy release of any tornado ever.

In the linked paper below from 2007-2013 the tornado with the most total energy release is the Tallulah-Yazoo City-Durant tornado of April 24, 2010 with a total kinetic energy of 516.7 terajoules. TKE is a formula of length, width, and wind speed. I don’t think there’s an all time TKE ranking so for sure others likely had a higher TKE.

For comparison a low end, relatively short ef0/ef1 would have a tke of 10-20 gigajoules. Average background atmosphere kinetic energy in settled weather would be sub 1,000 joules, so just an amazingly massive concentration and release of energy in a long, wide, f3-f5 like this event likely will end up being.

A lightning strike is like 1bn joules of energy transfer, so maybe a prolific lightning event would end up with higher exchange of energy between cloud and ground. Be interesting to understand and rank the most energetic events. Would a derecho a la Iowa 2020 have more tke than a long track f5 monster?

Ref (from 2015): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4489157/#!po=1.66667

[sigerson]

My first post. Howdy, y’all.

 I've learned a lot about tornado damage surveys working on my book about the Joplin tornado and the first ten years of the recovery (the book, and the recovery, are still in progress),

If it is not rated an EF5, people will howl. Communities take pride in surviving a major tornado. It’s a badge of honor. The worse it’s rated, the tougher they feel. Google the reaction in La Plata, MD when its 2002 EF5 was, upon further review, downgraded to EF4. There are still people who lobby to have the 1953 Worcester F4 promoted to an F5.

 

The rating is subjective. Enhanced Fujita is an enhanced guess, and open to difference of opinion among surveyors.

 

The survey process will be tough on the meteorologists who have never done it before. They are seeing, perhaps for the first time, the damage they warn people about, and meeting the people directly affected. The NWS Jarrell assessment noted, “The magnitude of this event made it emotionally troubling for every team member.” Somewhere in my notes is a comment by an NWS met after LeeCounty, saying that some mets (probably the younger ones) treated it all like a video game, with all the gee-whiz computer stuff, until something awful happened on their watch. Then, it became very, very real.

 

It would not surprise me at all to see construction quality mentioned a lot in the damage survey, and perhaps affect the rating. Two years after the Joplin tornado, the American Society of Civil Engineers reported it found no EF-5-level damage in Joplin. The ASCE did not say it wasn’t an EF-5, just that construction quality was so poor that buildings failed in far lesser winds. Ask Tim Marshall, Poor construction quality is its own pandemic. A lot of builders rely on gravity to keep a structure together. It works fine – until it doesn’t.

[purduewx80]

My dad was doing some work on their property today and found this photo. Took my mom ~2 hours to find its owner on a Facebook group. It traveled about 168 miles from the Eddyville, KY, area, near the north end of Land Between the Lakes.

[DanLarsen34]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but are these the photos everyone has been discussing today? 

 

 

[Buckeye05]

12 minutes ago, sigerson said:

My first post. Howdy, y’all.

 

 

 I've learned a lot about tornado damage surveys working on my book about the Joplin tornado and the first ten years of the recovery (the book, and the recovery, are still in progress),

If it is not rated an EF5, people will howl. Communities take pride in surviving a major tornado. It’s a badge of honor. The worse it’s rated, the tougher they feel. Google the reaction in La Plata, MD when its 2002 EF5 was, upon further review, downgraded to EF4. There are still people who lobby to have the 1953 Worcester F4 promoted to an F5.

 

 

 

The rating is subjective. Enhanced Fujita is an enhanced guess, and open to difference of opinion among surveyors.

 

 

 

The survey process will be tough on the meteorologists who have never done it before. They are seeing, perhaps for the first time, the damage they warn people about, and meeting the people directly affected. The NWS Jarrell assessment noted, “The magnitude of this event made it emotionally troubling for every team member.” Somewhere in my notes is a comment by an NWS met after LeeCounty, saying that some mets (probably the younger ones) treated it all like a video game, with all the gee-whiz computer stuff, until something awful happened on their watch. Then, it became very, very real.

 

 

 

It would not surprise me at all to see construction quality mentioned a lot in the damage survey, and perhaps affect the rating. Two years after the Joplin tornado, the American Society of Civil Engineers reported it found no EF-5-level damage in Joplin. The ASCE did not say it wasn’t an EF-5, just that construction quality was so poor that buildings failed in far lesser winds. Ask Tim Marshall, Poor construction quality is its own pandemic. A lot of builders rely on gravity to keep a structure together. It works fine – until it doesn’t.

 

Myself and many other reallllly question that study. It was done by people with zero background or training in the hallmarks of the various intensity levels of tornado damage. Most importantly, the damage to St. John’s is easily the most intense damage to a high-rise building ever documented. It’s underpinning system was damaged beyond repair, and the building was structurally compromised to the point where it had to be demolished. That requires 200+ MPH winds to happen. Period. Any experienced damage surveyor would tell you the same. So even from a strictly engineering based POV, that study is highly questionable, and the notion that no EF5 level structure damage occurred in Joplin just isn’t true.