CheeselandSkies Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Sadly they still think the statewide total will probs end up at around 100, but it's better than the likely 200 total if all the people in the factory had died like they originally thought If I'm not mistaken, that makes it the deadliest single tornado since Udall if not for Joplin, correct? *Although it remains to be seen if the single-tornado toll will exceed Hackleburg or Tuscaloosa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I wouldn't be as definitive as some are, but I think it's greater than 50% chance of it being EF-5. I am probably more interested in whether it broke the Tri-State tornado record for path length. That is almost an unthinkable record in my book. It's like DiMaggio's hitting streak being broken. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 A lot of pictures I have seen remind me of some of those from Greensburg, KS but haven't heard it mentioned in comparisons. Greensburg was a smaller and more compact town, but not so different than some of these denser populations of bigger towns/cities. I'm not an expert or even educated in the field, so not ssying such is so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 ILX rated the 4th tornado an EF2 as well, said it was same storm as Cass County south of Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
largetornado Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I wouldn't be as definitive as some are, but I think it's greater than 50% chance of it being EF-5. I am probably more interested in whether it broke the Tri-State tornado record for path length. That is almost an unthinkable record in my book. It's like DiMaggio's hitting streak being broken. Reed timmer posted a video from someone showing it as a wedge on approach to the Mississippi River. He tweeted “likely 1 tornado” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I went ahead and uploaded a Google Drive folder with all my GR Level 3 screenshots from this event. When I have time I'll hook up my phone and add all my RadarScope screenshots, mostly from KHPX after it stopped updating on GR Level 3 for some stupid reason (after KPAH was already down for everybody).https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1XnEHjfxXwljZ-OHkXwkTt0j7wWPfIXwh?usp=sharing First grab of the eventual quad-state supercell is from LZK at 2354 UTC. At 0029/0031 from NQA is when it showed that dramatic BWER which I remarked reminded me of the early stages of the Cullman tornado from 4/27. At 0259 from PAH is when the debris signature explodes again just before Cayce, KY and starting at 0317 is when it starts to approach Mayfield. Unfortunately I went to bed before the Bowling Green tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chreeyiss Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, cheese007 said: That’s some crazy damage but I don’t buy the pavement scouring claim based on the photos provided. If they’re talking about the picture with the driveway, those appear to be tire tracks to me. They follow the path of the driveway exactly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 52 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said: That’s some crazy damage but I don’t buy the pavement scouring claim based on the photos provided. If they’re talking about the picture with the driveway, those appear to be tire tracks to me. They follow the path of the driveway exactly. They're talking about the lower left photo. But i'm not totally convinced that photo shows any pavement scouring either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 If I had to hazard a guess based on the damage pics and videos we’ve seen, I think the best shot we have at an EF-5 rating, as others have posited here, will be northeast of Mayfield. The damage out of the smaller communities like Bremen and Dawson Springs is just insane. It’s comparable at first glance to any of the recent EF-5s we’ve seen IMHO. Only official surveys will be able to definitely tell whether we had an EF-5 or not. Regardless of where this ends up officially on the rating scale though (it seems likely that it ends up AT LEAST a high-end EF-4 rating), this tornado was absolutely historic in a horrifying way. It likely produced a swath of at least EF-4 damage for dozens of miles at a time, and the path length is likely one of, if not the longest in modern history. I think this tornado event is also a good reminder that we’ve been extremely lucky since 2011 when it comes to violent tornadoes not hitting populated areas. Let’s hope this isn’t an indication of how the coming months may play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Some more higher end damage in this area of Warren County (near Bowling Green). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Looks like a 4 to me. People are posting the weakest ground scouring and we all know construction standards in W Kentucky are kinda sus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 NWS Paducah confirmed on TWC that the Cayce/Mayfield/Bremen tornado was a continuous, 128 miles long path across their entire CWA. So, there’s that to run with so far. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: Looks like a 4 to me. People are posting the weakest ground scouring and we all know construction standards in W Kentucky are kinda sus. They're probably better than in rural MS or AL, to be fair. Mayfield, Cambridge Springs, and the region of Princeton that was struck are reasonably well-off areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, andyhb said: They're probably better than in rural MS or AL, to be fair. Mayfield, Cambridge Springs, and the region of Princeton that was struck are reasonably well-off areas. At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 There is a process to go through before EF-4 or 5 ratings are given, and it takes time. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Up to 15 fatalities now in the Bowling Green area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: At least so far they havent gone higher than EF3 for anything. I find it hard to believe given some of the damage that nothing has even reached EF4 for 1 or several tornadoes. But yall said theyre stingy going above a 3 so maybe thats as high as we see even if its wrong. Things are pointing to at least EF-4, whether it's what we can tell based on damage photos (yes, there are some limitations at just looking at pictures) but also various radar data. I also feel like we can use the death toll as a proxy. Generally speaking, you are not going to get the kind of death count we are looking at from anything under EF-4, unless maybe it's a freak circumstance such as an outdoor event being hit or nothing but trailer parks, which we don't have in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 ^That must be outdated. There was an EF1 confirmed in Branson West, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 19 hours ago, largetornado said: 8 dead, 8 missing at candle factory. Not 70 dead like early estimates per AP and candle factory spokesman That's much better news. I found an article with more info on the candle factory: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/spokesman-8-factory-workers-dead-8-missing-from-tornado/ar-AARJOeB “Many of the employees were gathered in the tornado shelter and after the storm was over they left the plant and went to their homes,” said Bob Ferguson, a spokesman for the company. “With the power out and no landline they were hard to reach initially. We’re hoping to find more of those eight unaccounted as we try their home residences.” Unfortunately there's an ugly lie going around Twitter and YouTube this afternoon claiming candle factory workers weren't allowed to seek shelter because of their race. Needs to be nipped in the bud, but will probably become an established urban myth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'm just a layman, but this sure looks like another excellent call by the SPC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc33710 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is? 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Things are pointing to at least EF-4, whether it's what we can tell based on damage photos (yes, there are some limitations at just looking at pictures) but also various radar data. I also feel like we can use the death toll as a proxy. Generally speaking, you are not going to get the kind of death count we are looking at from anything under EF-4, unless maybe it's a freak circumstance such as an outdoor event being hit or nothing but trailer parks, which we don't have in this case. TWC had someone from the Paducah NWS going over their damage assessments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Using filtered storm reports, this was one of the most active days of 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, brianc33710 said: Thats decent placement on the SPCs part but maybe they shouldve enlarged moderate N & E and issue a High Risk where the Mod is? The SPC did an excellent job forecasting this event, especially given short-term model guidance that day. It wasn't until around 16z Friday when the CAM runs began to catch on to the overperforming surface temps/dews and started to realize the nightmarish potential of that day. The SPC also did an amazing job with their timely and descriptive MDs as the event unfolded. It's easy to say that they could've gone with a high risk after everything is said and done, but given the model guidance and general expectations for Friday its fair to say that they did a fantastic job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Re: SPC…I’m a well known hater of them in this sub-forum, but in this instance they did fairly well. It’s easy to say in hindsight they could have used a high risk, but in reality heading into the event you definitely couldn’t say that…as a moderate risk was adequate. The one argument you could possibly make is that for the evening outlook update, they could have expanded ENH and MOD probabilities across states like IL, IN and KY.But outside of that everything went well, and they used countless MCD’s to cover short term thoughts.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just now, Random Chaos said: In the Navy this is what we call invisible boot stomping as a hint, but I think that comes as no surprise to any of us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now