Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Wonder how far is was continuously on the ground for. Surveys will be able to tell whether is briefly cycled at some point or not. without a doubt will be a an (in)famous long track tornado.

I think it cycled after hitting Samburg, and then the Mayfield tornado started SW of Cayce, likely took out that town, then continued for over 150 miles.

[Calderon]

Defiance, MO tornado rated preliminary EF-3 and May go higher, per LSX Twitter.


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[cheese007]

Unbelievable damage footage coming out of Mayfield. Like others have said it very much looks similar to the Joplin aftermath

[andyhb]

More devastation from the area around Earlington KY.

[Moderately Unstable]

57 minutes ago, vman722 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Estimated wind speed for that Mayfield tornado? 

 

The "Mayfield" tornado, as it's being referred to, is *not* just the Mayfield tornado. This tornado was on the ground for potentially over 200 miles. Maybe it cycled once; storm survey teams will determine the continuity of the damage track. But based on the images coming in so far, for Mayfield in particular, upper end EF-3 to middle end EF-4 damage is widespread. The image above from Jeff shows **possible** EF-5 damage. That depends on how well anchored that home was and how well it was constructed (materials). In support (or not) of the EF-5 rating, the survey team will look around that area for ground scouring. EF-5s produce extensive scouring. A good "at home" way to demonstrate this is to take a leaf blower, put it on high, and point it at the ground at close range. The extreme concentrated wind jet will actually physically extricate the grass and soil directly below the blower, like it was dug out with a shovel. That's basically the same thing that happens with an extreme end tornado (on a larger scale). Same thing with debarked trees. When we talk EF-5 damage, we are talking very specific markers of extreme damage that are frankly hard to replicate through any other mechanism. EF-4 damage is devastating, but it's just shy of "complete". 

 

43 minutes ago, Chreeyiss said:

I know you’re stating that as the lower bound, but it’s hard for me to imagine the survey will conclude anywhere near that low, given the insane velocity bins on radar last night. This will be a great case study on how g2g values translate to damage surveys, or don’t.

The damage images coming in, on large scale, I would also go with in the 170ish range, with exception of that Jeff image. If that is not just a one off and that's what the SW side of town looks like, that would change my perspective significantly. At the end of the day, radar is great for in-situ forecasting but it doesn't beat post storm survey and analysis. Unless you're in a DOW a mile from the storm, radar is not perfect. Partly because the radar beam unless in the above scenario, isn't actually viewing the tornado at the ground. And, partly because while radar is excellent, extreme end things (grapefruit hail, 250mph winds, etc), are more likely to cause issues with the radar beam, the returns, and subsequent digital interpretation. The TBSS illustrates that concept. TBSS occurs when objects in the air cause reflection and scattering of the incoming radar beam, such that they then hit the ground, before reflecting back to the hail (in this case, debris), and then to the radar. Radar calculates distance based on amount of time it takes the beam to return. Longer return time + multiple returns equal that long spike of lower reflectivity seeming to emanate from the storm. But that's obviously not actually what's happening! There's no light precip falling under that spike even though according to the radar's algorithm, there is. All of this is to say, we take the combination of data from radar to understand a storm, not just shear. I will also say, for the most part, the WSRs do a great job with parameterization of wind speeds in tornadoes. I'm simply saying, storm damage survey "wins" versus radar estimated shear when they disagree with one another. 

Separately, the action that raises debris up 20, 30, 35k feet into the air is not linearly correlated to tornadic wind speed. That's why the study Sam Emmerson did specifies EF-4+ rather than EF-5. There aren't a lot of EF-5s on which to create a strong data set to make that into its own classification. 

 

31 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Looks like we found potential EF-5 damage in Mayfield. 

 

That is much more indicative of the type of devastating damage you talk about with upper end EF-4 or EF-5 storms. If more images like this come out you'll see more mets talking firmly about EF-5 stuff. Central Mayfield is definitely more middle EF-4. This is not. This is more "Joplin". I also think that because the tornado was on ground for so long, there may be other areas where EF-5 intensity is possible. Mayfield is in the spotlight as a fairly big town that got hit near peak strength, but it wouldn't be surprising to learn of ef-5 damage somewhere else on the path, too.

[andyhb]

Possibly double digit fatalities in Bremen from the Mayfield tornado. That is a tiny town.

[Amped]

I've seen enough, EF5.

[Hoosier]

25 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Possibly double digit fatalities in Bremen from the Mayfield tornado. That is a tiny town.

Bremen only has a couple hundred residents or so.  

As if Mayfield didn't tell us enough, you know it's bad when you see these rural/small town death tolls.

[cincy.wx]

Current running total of deaths, with links to verification:

Western Tennessee - 3

Edwardsville, Illinois - 2

Bowling Green, Kentucky - "multiple", but no number given

Mayfield, Kentucky - between 50 and 70

Bremen, Kentucky - 11

Dawson Springs, Kentucky - no number given, but deaths reported

Monette, Arkansas - 5

Defiance, Missouri - 1

[Hoosier]

Since there are really only 2 options at this point, here's some historical context:

Last (E)F-4 tornado in Kentucky:  3/2/2012

Last (E)F-5 tornado in Kentucky:  4/3/1974

[09-10 analogy]

In a way, this seems more unprecedented than April 2011. NOT as bad overall, obviously, but certainly bad enough and maybe more anomalous? After all, you had April 1965 and 1974 as predecessor comparable events for April 27, 2011. April has probably had more tragic tornado outbreaks than any other month. But December? There doesn't seem to be anything like this on the record, except for the 1957 event I linked earlier -- 37 total, 1 F5, 3 F4s. But the fatality count there was 19. (From the wiki, a lot of those tornadoes were after dark, it seems.) Now, the governor of Kentucky, who's probably about as unimpeachable a source as you could get in the immediate aftermath of something like this, is speculating about more than 100 deaths (at least last I heard). With other fatalities in Arkansas and Tennessee. So, really, no comparison, at least using fatality count as the (ghoulish) metric for ranking outbreak severity.

There are gonna be a lot of studies on this one, for certain. 

 

(Moved this from Mid Atlantic forum; seems more pertinent here.)

[Calderon]

22 minutes ago, WXMan42711 said:

Current running total of deaths, with links to verification:

Western Tennessee - 3

Edwardsville, Illinois - 2

Bowling Green, Kentucky - "multiple", but no number given

Mayfield, Kentucky - between 50 and 70

Bremen, Kentucky - 11

Dawson Springs, Kentucky - no number given, but deaths reported

Monette, Arkansas - 5

Defiance, MO 1 fatality. 

[Calderon]

Edwardsville/Pontoon Beach, IL tornado (Amazon) rated EF-3 so far.

[Hoosier]

16 minutes ago, 09-10 analogy said:

In a way, this seems more unprecedented than April 2011. NOT as bad overall, obviously, but certainly bad enough and maybe more anomalous? After all, you had April 1965 and 1974 as predecessor comparable events for April 27, 2011. April has probably had more tragic tornado outbreaks than any other month. But December? There doesn't seem to be anything like this on the record, except for the 1957 event I linked earlier -- 37 total, 1 F5, 3 F4s. But the fatality count there was 19. (From the wiki, a lot of those tornadoes were after dark, it seems.) Now, the governor of Kentucky, who's probably about as unimpeachable a source as you could get in the immediate aftermath of something like this, is speculating about more than 100 deaths (at least last I heard). With other fatalities in Arkansas and Tennessee. So, really, no comparison, at least using fatality count as the (ghoulish) metric for ranking outbreak severity.

There are gonna be a lot of studies on this one, for certain. 

 

(Moved this from Mid Atlantic forum; seems more pertinent here.)

What happened last night, especially in Kentucky, is an absolute freakshow for this time of year. 

I did some digging and it looks like the deadliest December tornado in KY prior to this was back on December 4, 1925, with 2 fatalities. 

[Calderon]

While the damage is incredible in Mayfield, this tornado was likely not even at its strongest point then given some of the damage pics from Dawson Springs and Bremen. 

[DeltaPilot]

Just...WOW......

 

https://twitter.com/T_Hofelich/status/1469525957941895173?s=20&fbclid=IwAR1aEYFbSNNPqnByG_XENgIiB_QDRrDvZP9K29JfG5t4Pa0gGasyxryUWko

[09-10 analogy]

24 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What happened last night, especially in Kentucky, is an absolute freakshow for this time of year. 

I did some digging and it looks like the deadliest December tornado in KY prior to this was back on December 4, 1925, with 2 fatalities. 

The deadliest ever I could find was Vicksburg MS in 1953, with 38. 

[CryHavoc]

[Normandy]

The combination of tree defoliation, mangled vehicles, high death toll, and multiple houses swept clean off foundation leads me to believe EF-5 is likely.  Terrrible tragedy and prayers to those affected

[WhirlingWx]

Bowling Green area

[bamabonners]

Was this a case of old buildings and no shelters or was the tornado really that strong?  Or option c, both...  

[WeatherMonger]

17 hours ago, MUWX said:

Looked to have a big time CC drop. Sure looked it was on the ground. 

Given an EF2 rating today

 

[Windspeed]

Looks like ground scouring can be seen near Bremen.

[Amped]

Have any EF-0 or EF1s been reported yet?  Seems this outbreak was mostly high end tornadoes.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Amped said:

Have any EF-0 or EF1s been reported yet?  Seems this outbreak was mostly high end tornadoes.

I'm sure we'll see some.  Going to take a while to sort through all the data/reports.

[Chicago Storm]

Have any EF-0 or EF1s been reported yet?  Seems this outbreak was mostly high end tornadoes.

As of this time I haven’t seen anything below EF-2, but obviously it’s still early.


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[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

As of this time, I haven’t seen anything below EF-2… But obviously it’s still early.


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The likely one near Crown Point is a good candidate to come in as EF-0 or EF-1.  BTW, would be the first December tornado in the LOT cwa since 1973 if confirmed.

[nwohweather]

https://twitter.com/mitchell_knight/status/1469656473068265479?s=2

This video is just... wow.

The roar man…

[*IndyMeso*]

Not sure if this was posted yet but this is a really great graphic of the evolution of the long supercell.

 

[hlcater]

Here is a gofundme organized by myself and a few other chasers if anyone is feeling generous. I personally vouch that they're going to a good cause. We looked through the list of charities and found the one we thought was best. We're 2000$ deep on the road to 10,000. Even if you can't donate, even something as little as spreading the link would do tremendous good!

https://www.gofundme.com/f/kentucky-tornado-disaster-relief