Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

[Hoosier]

For a little perspective on what we are looking at...

The last time there was a "nocturnal" tornado in December in Indiana was on December 8, 1966.  It occurred around dawn -- which is why I put nocturnal in quotation marks -- but that's good enough for me.

Only looking at December nocturnal tornadoes and not including other winter months probably underestimates the frequency/rate of occurrence a bit, but you get the point.  It's freaking unusual.

[Malacka11]

Some serious drought busting going on in Naperville

[Indystorm]

7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Some serious drought busting going on in Naperville

Good rain in Griffith as well.  Gotta get the moisture up here to prime overnight storms

[McHenrySnow]

I hope the HRRR is right and we get over an inch, we sorely need it. I'm just happy to get precipitation of any sort at this point. 

[Indystorm]

Storms seem to be initiating now in the tor watch area west of Little Rock

[sbnwx85]

52 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For a little perspective on what we are looking at...

The last time there was a "nocturnal" tornado in December in Indiana was on December 8, 1966.  It occurred around dawn -- which is why I put nocturnal in quotation marks -- but that's good enough for me.

Only looking at December nocturnal tornadoes and not including other winter months probably underestimates the frequency/rate of occurrence a bit, but you get the point.  It's freaking unusual.

Meteorologist Andrew Whitmyer in South Bend posted this interesting fact.

 

[Tezeta]

I really hope this busts. I am busy tonight and don’t want to be distracted by RadarScope debris balls and stuff. 

[Sydney Claridge]

While well outside of this subforum (this seems to be the main thread for the event), storms are going up over the eastern DFW metroplex, much further west than expected.  SPC says they are "high based" in a mesoscale discussion regarding the possibility of issuing a watch for the ArkLaTex.

I do wonder what this means in terms of implications for later in the event.

[Chicago Storm]

Outside of the sub-forum, but nice example of a slowly maturing supercell in a high shear environment, near Little Rock.


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[Indystorm]

Cells are also starting to pop south of Kirksville MO.

[cheese007]

Storm out in DFW just got severe warned

[janetjanet998]

Rapid increase of convection  over several areas now..central MO

 

and also discrete stuff trying to get going from S IL into MS

 

edit: meso out for the MS storms east of current watch

[janetjanet998]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 553  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   520 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2021    

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS   SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI

    * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 520 PM UNTIL   1100 PM CST.     * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75   MPH POSSIBLE   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE    

[janetjanet998]

first TOR warning of the event

 

 * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...   MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...   SOUTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...     * UNTIL 615 PM CST.    

* AT 528 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO   WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNNVILLE, OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF MAYFIELD, MOVING   NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

[Indystorm]

For what it is worth TWC has a Torcon of 7 for se MO into western KY  to PAH area

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Warned cell doesn't look exceptionally impressive at the moment.

Kind of unusual for them to put out an update MD on a watch seven minutes after issuing the watch...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0553.html

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1984.html

[Calderon]

The activity over western MO will tell the tale for the northern half of the risk. We'll see if things stay more linear or if we can get more robust updrafts to become more individual. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Three active tornado warnings now, one each in AR, MO and KY.

AR cell has rapidly organized and taken on blatant supercell structure on reflectivity. It'd be my greatest short-term concern for a significant tornado threat.

Edit: MO cell not looking too shabby, either...

[Calderon]

Very likely about to get a confirmed TOR near Marshfield, MO. That cell is on a perfect trajectory for STL metro.


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[nwohweather]

31 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

first TOR warning of the event

 

 * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...   MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...   SOUTHEASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...     * UNTIL 615 PM CST.    

* AT 528 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO   WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNNVILLE, OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF MAYFIELD, MOVING   NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

And to think this is the slow one. I wouldn’t be shocked tonight to see storm motions at 60+

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, Calderon said:

Very likely about to get a confirmed TOR near Marshfield, MO. That cell is on a perfect trajectory for STL metro.


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It has a long ways to go before it gets there. It can happen, though. Anyone remember the six-state supercell from 3/12/06?

[WeatherMonger]

2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It has a long ways to go before it gets there. It can happen, though. Anyone remember the six-state supercell from 3/12/06?

Vividly

 

just wish I was on a forum like this or accuweather at the time. 5 days later we were in a Blizzard warning

[Chicago Storm]

Very likely about to get a confirmed TOR near Marshfield, MO. That cell is on a perfect trajectory for STL metro.


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CC signature with it.


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[Indystorm]

5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

It has a long ways to go before it gets there. It can happen, though. Anyone remember the six-state supercell from 3/12/06?

Most definitely....was in Kentland IN at the time and followed that cell all day as it moved ne.

[Chicago Storm]

32 minutes ago, Calderon said:

The activity over western MO will tell the tale for the northern half of the risk. We'll see if things stay more linear or if we can get more robust updrafts to become more individual. 

Either way there will be a wind/tornado threat, whether activity is cellular or QLCS.

[Indystorm]

10 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Very likely about to get a confirmed TOR near Marshfield, MO. That cell is on a perfect trajectory for STL metro.


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That concerns me, especially with the SPC comment that tornadic cells will increase in eastern MO

[mob1]

The cell in NE Arkansas is starting to look very impressive. Wording on the warning seems to indicate that it's a confirmed tornado, but I'm not sure as it looks like an unusual way of putting it. I'd be very surprised if it isn't currently producing a tornado. 

[Calderon]

That concerns me, especially with the SPC comment that tornadic cells will increase in eastern MO

Yeah, the usually conservative tv mets here are becoming very concerned with the quick evolution of this group.

Starting to see a lot of mergers and cells becoming dominant.


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[mob1]

[Indystorm]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The cell in NE Arkansas is starting to look very impressive. Wording on the warning seems to indicate that it's a confirmed tornado, but I'm not sure as it looks like an unusual way of putting it. I'd be very surprised if it isn't currently producing a tornado. 

Memphis NWS (MEG) has a horrible practice of saying  "a severe storm producing a tornado..." when they are only observing radar indicated rotation with nothing actuaLLY CONFIRMED AS OF YET.... it is very misleading and confusing. They need to say "capable of producing a tornado" like other offices do when observing rotation.