madwx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 It's been a slow start to the season but a dynamic shortwave trough looks to move through the central US causing lee cyclogenesis and Colorado low moving NE through the sub. Euro(and to a lesser extent the GFS)has been consistent showing a band of double digit snow totals to the NW of the low center and has been trending slightly SE with each. Right now the highest risk seems to be to the north of the WI/IL border. At the same time a potentially substantial severe risk will be occurring in the southern parts of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I think MSP will be on the far northern fringe of things so I’m trying not to get to excited. My local ski hill is 40 miles southeast so I’m getting pretty optimistic about powder skiing this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 So far this is looking like a potentially pretty solid hit up here by Green Bay. Models have us in the 6-8" range. If this pans out we wlil actually have a pretty decent snowpack going. Too bad it's going to melt in the torch of the century afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 The solution to getting snow across portions of iowa seems to be letting the low deepen quickly. The 18z euro has a far better developed deformation zone to the west of the low compared to other models and has 1-4" across eastern iowa because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 Looks like a few showers/dry slot/flurries for this area with this. Top 3 event in the bag for fall/winter season so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 15 hours ago, madwx said: It's been a slow start to the season but a dynamic shortwave trough looks to move through the central US causing lee cyclogenesis and Colorado low moving NE through the sub. Euro(and to a lesser extent the GFS)has been consistent showing a band of double digit snow totals to the NW of the low center and has been trending slightly SE with each. Right now the highest risk seems to be to the north of the WI/IL border. At the same time a potentially substantial severe risk will be occurring in the southern parts of our subforum. SPC has been pretty low-key with this, never outlining an area beyond Day 3, and just a 15% slight risk now that it is Day 3. Broyles must be on vacation...that or they're gun-shy after all the 11th hour failures of seemingly slam-dunk outbreaks in recent years (although mostly the ones west and north of Dixie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 The Euro continues to look the most significant severe weather wise, even well up into IL/IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Can we please get an accumulation in MKE, still waiting on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Hi-res models coming into focus and slowing inching north. First winter storm watch of the season posted. Looks like Minneapolis might win the thread the needle pattern award. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 After trending southward for a couple days, looks like most models have shifted back north a little. Beginning to think the chances for a fresh foot of snow are becoming more likely. If so, that would put the snow depth here in excess of 2 feet by late Saturday and with the freeze and thaw pattern upcoming, it will likely harden up the snowpack and create a little extra staying power. At any rate, I don't expect a complete melt off up here next week.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Severe weather threat looking possible up into the LOT CWA now.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 56 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Severe weather threat looking possible up into the LOT CWA now. . Agree, particularly south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 If the 18z HRRR has any clue on the severe threat tomorrow…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Too bad it's gonna be dark at 2pm so any chance of watching is non existent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 18z NAM not to HRRR extent, but getting close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Helicity and dews are scary for this time of year. Shades of Nov. 6, 2005 in Evansville? Friday night could be very active with 10% tor in the enhanced area.....I will focus on Memphis to EVV area and am surprised that svr risk extends this far north to nw Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 I dig his intro music, does anyone know the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Another aspect to watch is the synoptic high wind potential. Should have 45-60MPH wind gusts potential across IL/IN/MI/OH.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 It's a crazy we have a threat like this so close to the shortest day of the year, but then again, cold season has been the severe season in my area in recent years. It's a shame initiation will likely be after sunset, but regardless I'll be chasing anyway due to the rarity of the event. This is actually quite a scary setup considering the giant area of the warm sector, the screaming storm motions, and nighttime initiation. Plus many will be caught off guard due to the fact that it's December. Even crazier is that we might get another tornado threat next week much further to the NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: I dig his intro music, does anyone know the track? suspect early Pink Floyd before the drugs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 12 minutes ago, WaryWarren said: I dig his intro music, does anyone know the track? Lost in Space, Cobby Costa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Heading up to Newberry in the morning to ride this one out....with my sled of course. Gotta get in on the fun before the warmup wipes it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Severe weather threat looking possible up into the LOT CWA now. . Knew being in town would reel in the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 39 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Another aspect to watch is the synoptic high wind potential. Should have 45-60MPH wind gusts potential across IL/IN/MI/OH. . Watches already up for lower Michigan, we look to mix almost to 800mb and there is 65kts up there so we could really be in for quite an event here locally Saturday morning and into the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Heading up to Newberry in the morning to ride this one out....with my sled of course. Gotta get in on the fun before the warmup wipes it out.Aiming to arrive late day Munising. Newberry going to look a lot better this weekend than it did for our March trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Riding this one out indoors with hot chocolate as we all watch Jonger's rescue on cable news. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 Think I’m gonna drive up to Stevens Point or so to see some snow. Hopefully I won’t have to adjust further north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 9, 2021 Share Posted December 9, 2021 First winter storm warning of the season imby. Going to be sweating the gradient tomorrow, would like to be 30-40 miles south but given the pattern we are in I’ll take it! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 I'm hoping the 3km NAM is correct in giving us a quick half inch of rain prior to dry slot intrusion. If HRRR verifies a tenth or so would do it lol. Looks like a burst of flurries possible around daybreak Sat. Storm system doesn't get it's act together soon enough to give this area anything notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 6 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: First winter storm warning of the season imby. Going to be sweating the gradient tomorrow, would like to be 30-40 miles south but given the pattern we are in I’ll take it! You could be getting lucky I haven't gotten over 12'' of snow in a storms since December 2010. Last time I remember southern Minnesota getting over 14'' was May 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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