ravensrule Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do you guys think they will issue warnings? Flurry warnings generally don't get issued until right before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: He moved south with his trolling - he was doing the same in our thread earlier today. Not to worry, he won't be doing it again. Ever. 7 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do you guys think they will issue warnings? "When will they hoist warnings?" "I'm one county away from a warning...weather knows county boundaries" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When do you guys think they will issue warnings? Blizzard ones right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Blizzard ones right? Still 90% likely that school will be canceled, so don't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Still 90% likely that school will be canceled, so don't worry. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 While walking to the bus this afternoon and thinking how it’s going to snow in 2 days and it sort of seems wrong. It feels sort of like spring, weirder weather was happened though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 NAM continues juicy with a good stripe out this way in Loudoun into central Maryland. That would make this a little event.. Now.. everything else needs to fall in line. LOL! I am dreaming, but that looks nice and a lot of the area would have more than a few flakes. Maybe happy hour will deliver all around! EDIT: Well 3KM NAM says.. NOPE - Probably not much to see here! Flakes.. sure! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: So we will have hourly model runs soon. That’s gonna be great for the manic tendencies here. We already do, for the RAP/HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Hey, at least it was another marginal improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 12k nam looks juicy, 3k looks weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 18z 12k NAM’d! Ignore 3K. He’s drunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 RGEM got drier and shifted southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Literal factor of 10 difference in precip total between the 12k and 3k NAM for MBY 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Mount Holly AFD for the 'event'.. On Tuesday night, the low will be strengthening offshore of the North Carolina coast, before lifting to the northeast through the day Wednesday, remaining offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. The ECMWF remains the farthest east with the low as it passes by, while the rest of the model guidance tracks the low farther to the west. The greatest lift/moisture combination within the dendritic snow growth zone will remain on the northwest side of the low, which will track across most of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, as well as Delaware and eastern Maryland. We expect light precipitation to begin around or just before sunrise as a weak lead short wave moves into the area. Then as a stronger short wave approaches after sunrise, we expect the precipitation to spread across much of the area, with the heaviest precipitation across the I-95 corridor, south and eastward. The air above the surface is expected to be below freezing the entire time. However, as the precipitation begins to develop and spread across the area, some areas may warm up to near freezing or slightly above, before wet-bulbing back to freezing or below. So we expect mostly snow for most areas, although some rain may mix in if temperatures warm up above freezing, especially near the coast. QPF amounts are mostly one to two tenths or less across the area, and any snow that falls are expected to remain mostly around an inch or less, although some areas could approach 2 inches if temperatures stay cool enough during the event. The highest amounts are likely to remain across the I-95 corridor south and eastward, before dropping off near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 21 minutes ago, Kleimax said: 12k nam looks juicy, 3k looks weak 3k always seems 50% drier than every other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 WB 18Z NAM. Lock it in!!! I did not see anyone post it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z NAM. Lock it in!!! I did not see anyone post it. When do radar hallucinations begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 WB 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kleimax said: GFS caved Its been methodical and incremental for many runs now. The precip area has been getting lighter and shrinking in coverage run after run. Pretty impressive. Not like a sudden "cave". Still, it is now in line with most other guidance, outside of the Euro with its patch of flurries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS caved Time to put global models in trash for this event.Unless they juice back up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Time to put global models in trash for this event. Unless they juice back up Pretty sure the 12k Nam was the best out of all the models last year anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Pretty sure the 12k Nam was the best out of all the models last year anyways I mean the NAM did do very well last winter so I guess there is still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Hearing 18z euro may be better?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hearing 18z euro may be better?? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Guidance seems to be converging on a solid coating to an inch. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Guidance seems to be converging on a solid coating to an inch. Nice to see the Euro get in on the "more than flurries/sprinkles" game. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 That's a nice hit for the Euro. I'm starting to believe this might actually happen. Probably a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 hours ago, Deck Pic said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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