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Wednesday’s Amazing Event 12/8/21


SnowenOutThere
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1 hour ago, high risk said:

           You're correct that it's a mesoscale version of the GFS (it's not as simple as just saying it's the GFS run at 3 km).      The FV3 is now one of the Hi-Res Windows, along with the ARW and ARW2.   (The FV3 replaced the NMMB in the last HiResWindow upgrade.)   All 3 of those models, along with the NAM Nest and HRRR, make up the HREF.

             The hi-res version of the FV3 is an initial step towards replacing all of the hi-res models (the Hi-Res Windows, HRRR, NAM Nest, and the HREF products) with an hourly, high-res FV3 ensemble in a few years.

So we will have hourly model runs soon. That’s gonna be great for the manic tendencies here. 

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38 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Looks like a 0.5-1" event to me.

Probably reasonable. Surface temps will be important though (when are they not??), so it probably a T at DCA and 1” for the Parrs Ridge crowd which stay at 30-32F for the duration.

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5 hours ago, mappy said:

I like the blend between GFS and Euro. Not as amped and wet as the GFS, but not scattered flurries like the Euro.

I think most here will see a dusting, or a little more than that, location dependent. 

Either way, snow in the first week of December with record warmth on the way, everyone should be thrilled. 

 

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Pretty sure the Euro isn't the one nailing this but it probably had the correct idea on it being a very low key event and the others are saying ok no alcohol at the party but we are definitely having cheetos and chocolate

blah cheetos

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23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO denies the existence of a storm entirely. Almost too much of an outlier for me to be inclined to believe it, but I'm sure it'll be right this time.

edit: it looked like it did on the 1hr maps - on the 6hr maps it seems to suggest some mood flakes. woo.

It is actually an improvement. Might be a dusting instead of virga.

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