WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 At least early, the trend seems wetter. Small steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: We do non-events well. My bar for success is having flakes in the air. THat's all I ask. Give me a postcard scene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cobalt said: RGEM holds steady Wasn’t this the model that put out 50” for Baltimore last January about 36 hours before the event? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wasn’t this the model that put out 50” for Baltimore last January about 36 hours before the event? yep - it and its cousin, the HDRPS. They are fun to look at but clearly a little quirky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: RGEM holds steady With the RGEM on our side what can go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 I think a key part of us getting more snow is watching how the precip over IN, OH, WV is behaving. The models that give us more snow have that area really blossoming. The ones that don’t have that area very dry and then precip tries to develop overtop of us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 maybe we should just look at the short range models...not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 central MD pummeled!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: maybe we should just look at the short range models...not the GFS After the 12z GFS I agree we should all look at the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: I think a key part of us getting more snow is watching how the precip over IN, OH, WV is behaving. The models that give us more snow have that area really blossoming. The ones that don’t have that area very dry and then precip tries to develop overtop of us. I agree. If this tries to develop east of the mountains it wil leave us high and dry out here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: maybe we should just look at the short range models...not the GFS eh, I'm curious to see how long it holds steady. Shrunk the bullseye and generally lowered totals across the board (bad) but maintains the same general look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 A general wetter/drier is all we should be looking at. Pinpointing the exact highest amounts is not a SKOL that the models have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: central MD pummeled!! We abscond. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS is incrementally trending souther and drier. Still the wettest solution ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: FV3 is the GFS dynamical core run at mesoscale resolution. I think it may be taking over for the NAM, but @high risk or @dtk can confirm. You're correct that it's a mesoscale version of the GFS (it's not as simple as just saying it's the GFS run at 3 km). The FV3 is now one of the Hi-Res Windows, along with the ARW and ARW2. (The FV3 replaced the NMMB in the last HiResWindow upgrade.) All 3 of those models, along with the NAM Nest and HRRR, make up the HREF. The hi-res version of the FV3 is an initial step towards replacing all of the hi-res models (the Hi-Res Windows, HRRR, NAM Nest, and the HREF products) with an hourly, high-res FV3 ensemble in a few years. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A general wetter/drier is all we should be looking at. Pinpointing the exact highest amounts is not a SKOL that the models have. Lol, skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Compare the location and strength of that vorticity lobe up north to the previous few runs of the GFS, and compare it to the latest Euro run. GFS is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, skill Siri apparently likes some chaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Canadian holds steady -- really a slight improvement even. Wetter across the board. 12z 00z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, skill i just assumed you meant to write SKOL as a vikings fan. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Maybe things are meeting somewhat in the middle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wasn’t this the model that put out 50” for Baltimore last January about 36 hours before the event? I thought it was the RGEM. Might need to do a little research... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 NAM and GFS soundings are respectable for Wednesday morning in terms of temperatures and dendritic growth zone. Column is well below freezing except for right at the surface potentially. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, mappy said: i just assumed you meant to write SKOL as a vikings fan. After yesterday I have renounced my Viking fan status for at least a day or two lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: I thought it was the RGEM. Might need to do a little research... That’s the model he had posted about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Canadian holds steady -- really a slight improvement even. Wetter across the board. 12z 00z True. What it shows is deeper low. And deepening. The main issue for us as I see it is to get that thing to begin that development about 3-6 hours earlier. I think that’s doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NAM and GFS soundings are respectable for Wednesday morning in terms of temperatures and dendritic growth zone. Column is well below freezing except for right at the surface potentially. I don't think CAPE agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s the model he had posted about Oh...yeah. I was reading it in the context of the FV3 discussion just above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 UKIE definitely did not cave but manages to drop T-1" through the most populated areas of the subforum so many folks might be happy with it anyway. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: UKIE definitely did not cave but manages to drop T-1" through the most populated areas of the subforum so many folks might be happy with it anyway. I honestly have no faith in this model. When it shows good things I disregard that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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