MN Transplant Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 HRRR at range and 3km NAM are bone dry 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 2:24 AM, MN Transplant said: HRRR at range and 3km NAM are bone dry Expand This system always has had a tough road to travel. The upper trough is too round and the low is too strung out to so it was always hard to believe the 18Z NAM and the earlier GFS models. Still there was enough uncertainty to not completely gainsay it. I'll be satisfied with mood flakes like the 00Z model has. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 And UsedTube brings the dagger. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Always trust the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 2:53 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Always trust the NAM Expand ALWAYS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 ALWAYS trust usedtobe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 3:00 AM, stormtracker said: ALWAYS. Expand I’m serious, at this point who would defend this model? As for the gfs, look at its 5 day forecast for this. Holy cow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I mean … caption this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 lol the nam. Poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 3:38 AM, mappy said: lol the nam. Poof Expand Went from 1 to 2 leaf piles to 1 to 2 leaves. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS sticks a fork in it. Suppression: that trend is never your friend. It all seemed to start going downhill when this thread was created - aptly denoting it as a "non-event" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 3:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I mean … caption this Expand How about….“Is this really what you want to be your hobby this winter?” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 3:22 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I mean … caption this Expand 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Looking at the changes at 5H on the 00z GFS from last night to tonight's 00z run is pretty significant in the grand scheme of things. The height rises out ahead disappeared with less amplification of the lead wave, leading to a flat disturbance that leaves much to be desired. I mentioned this morning that the GFS was likely too gung-ho on the potential and the Euro too paltry with mainly nothing. I did think they would meet in the middle to a T-2" snow somewhere in the sub, and that seems plausible, although T-1" may be more applicable considering the short term trend in the strength of the lead s/w and the fact the digging s/w over Minnesota keeps getting held back a touch, which is key in its interaction with the wave over KY/WV as it moves eastward. The weaker the interaction, the de-amplification pattern downstream would hold merit, leading to a light northern edge with a sharp cutoff due to confluence over Quebec. Still something to monitor, but could be more in the realm of mood flakes for the Rt 50 corridor over to @usedtobe neck of the woods. Tough break, but it is early in the season still. Welcome to Nina's 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 From Mount Holly lol Welp. What had already been a multi-day southward trend in the frontal wave we`ve been tracking for Wednesday reached a crescendo overnight. The GFS and NAM essentially completed a cave to the EC solution, keeping the frontal wave very de-amplified and with nearly all of its meager precipitation shield missing south. What was already looking like a very minor event is now looking like essentially no event at all. PoPs, QPF, and Snow have been reduced accordingly. Some negligible (less than 0.5 inch) snow accumulation is still forecast, but it is definitely possible most areas won`t see measurable snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 10:02 AM, CAPE said: From Mount Holly lol Welp. What had already been a multi-day southward trend in the frontal wave we`ve been tracking for Wednesday reached a crescendo overnight. The GFS and NAM essentially completed a cave to the EC solution, keeping the frontal wave very de-amplified and with nearly all of its meager precipitation shield missing south. What was already looking like a very minor event is now looking like essentially no event at all. PoPs, QPF, and Snow have been reduced accordingly. Some negligible (less than 0.5 inch) snow accumulation is still forecast, but it is definitely possible most areas won`t see measurable snow. Expand Literally what I wrote above haha. A dang shame that the lead wave just completely petered to insignificant in the short term, but it happens. Looks like the "winner" of any snow in the sub will probably be confined to the Lower Eastern Shore or back into VA somewhere. 1" max, if we can even get that to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 10:30 AM, MillvilleWx said: Literally what I wrote above haha. A dang shame that the lead wave just completely petered to insignificant in the short term, but it happens. Looks like the "winner" of any snow in the sub will probably be confined to the Lower Eastern Shore or back into VA somewhere. 1" max, if we can even get that to occur. Expand Might watch it snow on the Salisbury Uni webcam lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 3:51 AM, stormtracker said: Went from 1 to 2 leaf piles to 1 to 2 leaves. Expand I’ll be happy with mood leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 GFS is straight trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Well that was fun.....again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 11:20 AM, H2O said: I’ll be happy with mood leaves. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 I guess the north trend is dead, probably will be resuscitated when we have a marginal event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 11:35 AM, SnowenOutThere said: I guess the north trend is dead, probably will be resuscitated when we have a marginal event. Expand was there ever a north trend? it started north and has come south ever since. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 11:41 AM, mappy said: was there ever a north trend? it started north and has come south ever since. Expand I think he means the usual minor shifts back north that we tend to see on guidance as we approach game time. This is such a weak, strung out pos, the only possible trend from here is towards complete disappearance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 12:21 PM, CAPE said: I think he means the usual minor shifts back north that we tend to see on guidance as we approach game time. This is such a weak, strung out pos, the only possible trend from here is towards complete disappearance. Expand Got it. No last minute "north trend" for this one methinks. Sorry weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 12:23 PM, mappy said: Got it. No last minute "north trend" for this one methinks. Sorry weenies. Expand 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Who was the potato head that said a couple of days ago that they’d rather have the gfs on their side? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 12:23 PM, mappy said: Got it. No last minute "north trend" for this one methinks. Sorry weenies. Expand I should of moved to Short Pump VA lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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