Wednesday’s Amazing Event 12/8/21

[SnowenOutThere]

We know it will be a non event but still warrants a thread just because. This is for discussion, banter and obs. Just yeah, even with it being a non event we should have a thread so the normal ones don’t get flooded with reports of flurries and whining. Mods can delete if they want. Got the idea from @WxUSAF

[yoda]

I'm taking the 6z GFS and holding it tight 

[WinterWxLuvr]

This one is tricky I think and could surprise. Might not too. So, that’s my contribution.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This one is tricky I think and could surprise. Might not too. So, that’s my contribution.

I like the blend between GFS and Euro. Not as amped and wet as the GFS, but not scattered flurries like the Euro.

I think most here will see a dusting, or a little more than that, location dependent. 

Either way, snow in the first week of December with record warmth on the way, everyone should be thrilled. 

[yoda]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z… models that show snow that I found

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Hugging the SREFs until they pass out from asphyxiation. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

I like the blend between GFS and Euro. Not as amped and wet as the GFS, but not scattered flurries like the Euro.

I think most here will see a dusting, or a little more than that, location dependent. 

Either way, snow in the first week of December with record warmth on the way, everyone should be thrilled. 

I do really think that this is a fine line situation. If you go back and look at the upper levels from the runs that were good vs the weaker runs now, you can’t find real significant differences, only minor ones.

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Hugging the SREFs until they pass out from asphyxiation. 

That SREF run is 9Z so it will be interesting to see the 12Z suite. I mean I would love a 1-3 inch wide spread event…. But I guess I won’t believe it without EURO or NAM support.

[mappy]

Current snowfall forecasts from LWX and nearby offices

[Ji]

That SREF run is 9Z so it will be interesting to see the 12Z suite. I mean I would love a 1-3 inch wide spread event…. But I guess I won’t believe it without EURO or NAM support.

The euro is not a short range model

[CAPE]

Disco from Mount Holly this morning on our non event- the end bit is a tad interesting given the timeframe. Cant just toss the GFS though.

We continue to track a fast moving frontal wave which could impact the region on Wednesday. Trends for several cycles now have been for this wave to be less amplified and to track further south, bringing colder but drier outcomes to the region. The 06.00z GFS made a small bump back north, but most guidance showed little change, with the EC and UKMET remaining essentially total misses. Whether correct or not, the other models have clearly been chasing the EC for some time now, and the forecast is weighted in that direction. But on account of a smaller weighting given to the GFS, there is still some light (around 0.5 inches) snow accumulation indicated for most of the region. The southward trends do suggest that whatever precipitation does fall, if any, it will fall mostly or entirely as snow. But with a very dry air mass in place heading into the event, we will need appreciable saturation and lift to generate any precipitation at all, and it is possible that will not happen. Overall, it looks like a minor or non-event, but still cannot rule out a more moderate snowfall.

[Weather Will]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

37 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

That SREF run is 9Z so it will be interesting to see the 12Z suite. I mean I would love a 1-3 inch wide spread event…. But I guess I won’t believe it without EURO or NAM support.

The euro is not a short range model

I know that but as we get inside 48 hours today, can anyone point to any significant storm where the NAM and EURO had no precipitation???  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looks like the SREFS dried up to me

[NorthArlington101]

NAM is coming in much more amped. Should be a better run.

A significant step in the right direction from the nothingburger it tossed out at 06z.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Big improvement in the NAM. This should be starting to get close to the start of the beginning of where the NAM might start to begin to get at least a little better idea of what might happen.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’ll tell ya, I don’t think it would take much to make this at least interesting. Seriously 

[H2O]

This applies to so many here

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll tell ya, I don’t think it would take much to make this at least interesting. Seriously 

No question about it. 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll tell ya, I don’t think it would take much to make this at least interesting. Seriously 

For Torchember—I’ll take what the NAM is selling. Any snow would be good snow …

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

This applies to so many here

that's perfect.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looks like the SREFS dried up to me

[RickinBaltimore]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

This applies to so many here

Yup I'm the one on the right. I don't need a HECS to be happy, I'll take some snow TV while I work. 

[CAPE]

 

[anotherman]

 

Hahahaha, that’s hilarious.

[WinterWxLuvr]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

In all seriousness, I don’t find the 3k to be very reliable.

[WinterWxLuvr]

28 minutes ago, H2O said:

This applies to so many here

So true

[Weather Will]

What is the FV3 on TT?  Is that the new NAM?  It shows some snow on Wed. At 12Z.

[Herb@MAWS]

We do non-events well. My bar for success is having flakes in the air. 

[WxUSAF]

FV3 is the GFS dynamical core run at mesoscale resolution. I think it may be taking over for the NAM, but @high risk or @dtk can confirm.

[Cobalt]

RGEM holds steady