Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

[powderfreak]

18 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like putting this down to just the isotherms is a injustice to global warming.

I think we know absolutely nothing about what might occur as a result. 

But that's just my opinion.

I do understand how intricate meteorology can be.

I agree, the science is unknown long term.  We are adding “energy” or heat to the overall atmosphere.  The question is how small a ripple rocks the boat.

Current data is less dramatic than certain language.

[bwt3650]

13 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

For water resources there It’s all about how it’s stored and delivered. 
 

Im not as good at explaining it as they are but in essence not really, somehow they need the precip to fall as snow, and for that snow to stick around into late spring to work the way they need it to for today’s setup of reservoirs.

they say that when it falls as rain, it goes to waste somehow, by running off or evaporating. That’s it I think. The evaporation. 

Who is "they"?  If you are trying to make a point about climate change, fine.  But usually when people over dramatize things, you lose credibility.  There will still be snow in the Sierra in 30 years and it will still snow in New England.  We will not see a 48" snowstorm every 2-3 years.  I'm not picking a side on the climate change issue, but I am picking a side on the speed and results that some people shout about for attention. 

[IowaStorm05]

24 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Who is "they"?  If you are trying to make a point about climate change, fine.  But usually when people over dramatize things, you lose credibility.  There will still be snow in the Sierra in 30 years and it will still snow in New England.  We will not see a 48" snowstorm every 2-3 years.  I'm not picking a side on the climate change issue, but I am picking a side on the speed and results that some people shout about for attention. 

I don’t really care if you do or don’t like what I wrote. There are no guarantees that what I say is going to verify exactly. But I have faith you’re smart enough to get it. 
 

im not a professor. I don’t need to be exact and do 4 hours of new research before I say something. And the Sierra and Reno area is dramatic to me. I grew up there. I like how Reno looks under a blanket of snow and have little certainty that that’s going to always be happening in the near future.

But I digress. This week, unlike most of us, Reno area is getting a bunch of snow. 
 

But I just really don’t have faith that, if given 3 or 4 more degrees of warming, that it is going to snow as much as it used to in these parts. Or many parts. That’s all I was trying to convey in detail. Given how infrequent I post on here overall, and the natural variability of topic on these threads, I thought that it was appropriate and could be done without being criticized.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bro, in our lifetimes it’ll still be snowing here. What it does 500 years from now who really gives a flying crap.  It won’t matter to any body alive now, or anybody to be born for another 400 years.
 

And Nobody has any real answers to any of this. But it will snow every winter from now through the end of our years here. 

You don’t know the weather 7days from now, Mr “anything can happen” but yet guarantee I will have accumulating snow every winter until I die.
 

Volatility is only increasing my man. We can certainly have a snowless winter followed by a record breaking one, in the future. Heck, we’ve come close to snowless winters already. 36-37 and 72-73 were pretty awful, single digits. 

[CoastalWx]

This place needs snow lol.

Gfs sort of like ern CT and RI into adjacent MA, but not as robust as the NAM. 
 

There’s almost like 3 areas to watch. One is near Portland Maine. One might be CT into adjacent MA into NH where WAA and some convergence in lower levels may help. The other area is somewhere in NE MA to maybe Plymouth county later on as the NE flow and NW flow converge there. I’m not sure what area will be dominant, but some snow is likely in those areas. Might take until later on near coast when winds go more N and NW. Maybe hills in ORH county can benefit from being colder.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This place needs snow lol.

Gfs sort of like ern CT and RI into adjacent MA, but not as robust as the NAM. 
 

There’s almost like 3 areas to watch. One is near Portland Maine. One might be CT into adjacent MA into NH where WAA and some convergence in lower levels may help. The other area is somewhere in NE MA to maybe Plymouth county later on as the NE flow and NW flow converge there. I’m not sure what area will be dominant, but some snow is likely in those areas. Might take until later on near coast when winds go more N and NW. Maybe hills in ORH county can benefit from being colder.

How about we just get the best of it and call it a day?

[Typhoon Tip]

We still haven’t made climate quota for 2015 yet in some cases. Being 250% above normal that year requires the 1980s to balance that lol. 

[IowaStorm05]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This place needs snow lol.

Gfs sort of like ern CT and RI into adjacent MA, but not as robust as the NAM. 
 

There’s almost like 3 areas to watch. One is near Portland Maine. One might be CT into adjacent MA into NH where WAA and some convergence in lower levels may help. The other area is somewhere in NE MA to maybe Plymouth county later on as the NE flow and NW flow converge there. I’m not sure what area will be dominant, but some snow is likely in those areas. Might take until later on near coast when winds go more N and NW. Maybe hills in ORH county can benefit from being colder.

I have definitely been thinking that this one is liable to deliver some surprises both positive and negative.

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You don’t know the weather 7days from now, Mr “anything can happen” but yet guarantee I will have accumulating snow every winter until I die.
 

Volatility is only increasing my man. We can certainly have a snowless winter followed by a record breaking one, in the future. Heck, we’ve come close to snowless winters already. 36-37 and 72-73 were pretty awful, single digits. 

But the point is it did snow. Even in 2012 it did snow. So that’s my point Mr. “always has an opposite answer.”  You can think what you want, but single digit snows in a season, while they totally suck, still count as snow. And that’s what I mean. It will snow this year…we won’t be shut out. 
 

And that’s the end of this complete BS.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

We still haven’t made climate quota for 2015 yet in some cases. Being 250% above normal that year requires the 1980s to balance that lol. 

I have....I was about 50" above average that season....the six seasons since? Around 75" below in the aggregate.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But the point is it did snow. Even in 2012 it did snow. So that’s the my point Mr. “always has an opposite answer.”  You can think what you want, but single digit snows in a season, while they totally suck, still count as snow. And that’s what I mean. It will snow this year…we won’t be shut out. 
 

And that’s the end of this complete BS.  

What did HFD get in 72-73? You seem to be a student of historical data. Curios what the records show. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the point is it did snow. Even in 2012 it did snow. So that’s my point Mr. “always has an opposite answer.”  You can think what you want, but single digit snows in a season, while they totally suck, still count as snow. And that’s what I mean. It will snow this year…we won’t be shut out. 
 

And that’s the end of this complete BS.  

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What did HFD get in 72-73? You seem to be a student of historical data. Curios what the records show. 

They didn’t get shut out. I can remember it snowing that winter..and accumulating here in Southington. But it was a ratter year for sure. But it wasn’t a shut out. I’m not gonna go look it up though. 

[TalcottWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime. 

Or our kids lifetimes. It makes no logical sense.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime. 

Yes, and that’s my only point. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What did HFD get in 72-73? You seem to be a student of historical data. Curios what the records show. 

Bradley had 35.2" that season. Lowest I see is 16.4" in 1979-80.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is absurd. SNE will never be shut out in our lifetime. 

But you can’t generalize SNE when some areas in SNE have come close already. And maybe some coastal locals in the region already have…?

Wolfie is growling for our locations in WCT, locking in accumulating snow every winter for the next 50yrs for me. Maybe 60 if I make it to a 100…with lots of help from edibles and eastern medicine. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Bradley had 35.2" that season. Lowest I see is 16.4" in 1979-80.

That’s strange. Boston had 10.3” and NYC had 2.8”. 

[CoastalWx]

I think I was the closest to getting shut out recently lol and that was in Boston, 10.3” in Dorchester in 11-12. Even the south coast had more. 

[CoastalWx]

Point is, given our climate, that’s virtually impossible to do even as it warms. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But you can’t generalize SNE when some areas in SNE have come close already. And maybe some coastal locals in the region already have…?

Wolfie is growling for our locations in WCT, locking in accumulating snow every winter for the next 50yrs for me. Maybe 60 if I make it to a 100…with lots of help from edibles and eastern medicine. 

Maybe the outer cape and islands conceivably, but I'll strongly bet against it...don't forget, much of that warming is occuring at night, and there is also more moisture available. It will take a very long time if that ever happens...its not a linear progression.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But you can’t generalize SNE when some areas in SNE have come close already. And maybe some coastal locals in the region already have…?

Wolfie is growling for our locations in WCT, locking in accumulating snow every winter for the next 50yrs for me. Maybe 60 if I make it to a 100…with lots of help from edibles and eastern medicine. 

Great debate Luke.  If you feel otherwise, I can respect that. I just don’t feel the same. I’m thinking 50-60 yrs is a very easy lock for accumulating snow for SNE.  If I’m wrong I won’t know it and neither will you. 
 

No more growling for me tonight boys, it’s all good.  Hope we see some snow tomorrow. If not we’ll have more chances going forward for sure.  See you all in the morning. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s strange. Boston had 10.3” and NYC had 2.8”. 

It was a strong el nino, so my guess is there were some huggers.

NYC really isn't comparable...I could see it happening there...they had like 7.8" in 2007-2008...I had like 80".

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Point is, given our climate, that’s virtually impossible to do even as it warms. 

THIS. 

[CoastalWx]

Many models sort of have that area of WAA snows coming into CT and MA. Maybe one of the jack areas is near Kevin and east of him?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Many models sort of have that area of WAA snows coming into CT and MA. Maybe one of the jack areas is near Kevin and east of him?

I'm sure I'll get porked...just assume it, at this point.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Point is, given our climate, that’s virtually impossible to do even as it warms. 

Wolfie has 0.5” already this season so he is safe this year. 

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe the outer cape and islands conceivably, but I'll strongly bet against it...don't forget, much of that warming is occuring at night, and there is also more moisture available. It will take a very long time if that ever happens...its not a linear progression.

It’s not just the warming though. It is the propensity for longer dry periods. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure I'll get porked...just assume it, at this point.

Well if someone is porked they aren’t missing much to be honest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Wolfie has 0.5” already this season so he is safe this year. 

 

It’s not just the warming though. It is the propensity for longer dry periods. 

Our section of the globe is NOT getting drier...false.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well if someone is porked they aren’t missing much to be honest.

I'd love a 2" snowfall over the holiday decor before it all goes to shit.