Snowcrazed71 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve been worried about grinder since Friday evening when everything went OTS Lol.. Coming feom you, thats funny. Your mood changes like the Wind 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I think we’ll need to see some other guidance like the euro moving NW by 00z tonight. That’s when the first piece of crucial energy comes onshore in BC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: #nomorethreadsuntil2daysaway Added to the hashtag 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Get well Jerry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 06z euro did improve some over 00z. Sharper with the main trough and gets some light precip up into NNE now which suggests some weak ML forcing getting further NW. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Feel better Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 An every day lurker and infrequent poster I just want to lift up prayers and positive vibes for Jerry. He’s an important part of this forum and we wish him good health soon 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Feel better Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Gfs sliding se as is the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs sliding se as is the gefs. Euro ticked NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I have no direct meteorological observations lending to the following statement - just model experience, alone: Newer runs of the GFS will continue the 06z and be trending ... while the other models seem to tick NW. GFS may even go 20% less at 12z, then another 20 at 18z ...then the 00z completes the overcompensating. Meanwhile, the Euro's been ticking NW. The GFS comes partially back tomorrow ...and what ultimately happens is something like S/SE zones get clipped by light. Everyone else? #BLNT That's just long years of operational/model experience telling me that... Usually, @< 96 hours the Euro won't approach absolute wrongness, nor will the GFS. It's really rather remarkable to have both operational runs be that diametric, such that they were on the 00z run. One is a upper moderate-lower major, the other is model .1 to .8" snow coverage - which is tantamount to model-noise dust and isn't even real. So it's like we have all or nothing on the 00z run comparison, for an event squarely < D5. Now that's a neat case. So, some sort of compromise tends to verify ... whether that is 60/40 ... 30/70 ... 55/45 ... etc, with either coming in first place. Right now that imaginary blend has more of flat bottle-rocket wave with a compressed light cold side affair across primarily CT-RI-E Ma up to maybe Logan. If the Euro is 'that' wrong, or the GFS is 'that' wrong - ...I also would almost give either some sympathy because we've found our selves yet again polluted with too much base-line velocity and hyper compression in the total hemisphere. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs sliding se as is the gefs. My gut all along is that we maybe get 1"-3" here in Connecticut. I still think that's the case. I do think the Euro will take the Snows back up a bit oh, and the GFS will slide south of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 06 Euro did inch North. Good sign. Talked to Jerry. Waiting on more tests. Rough night for him. Please keep him in your thoughts 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 My rule of thumb is that if it's not yet in NAM range, it's too soon to create a thread. Not that the NAM is going to tell us much that's reliable--but until that time frame, we really are still in that main thread realm of general pattern and 'looks'. A caveat to this is that when we have a couple "looks" within a couple days of each other, splitting them out can alleviate confusion. Other than that though--just enjoy what they show in that general look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 06 Euro did inch North. Good sign. Talked to Jerry. Waiting on more tests. Rough night for him. Please keep him in your thoughts A light event is still a possibility. Thank you for the update on Jerry, glad he’s at least in the right place under medical care/observation. I’m not a super religious person, but I prayed to the almighty last night to take care and watch over him. Jerry is a great guy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro ticked NW Get some rest. Long and tough tracking days are head for you. 10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: My gut all along is that we maybe get 1"-3" here in Connecticut. I still think that's the case. I do think the Euro will take the Snows back up a bit oh, and the GFS will slide south of it I didn’t think we even had anything to track until late month, back on 12/1, so even 1-3” would be welcomed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Several handfuls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Get some rest. Long and tough tracking days are head for you. I didn’t think we even had anything to track until late month, back on 12/1, so even 1-3” would be welcomed. I stayed up until the 6z gfs yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 8 hours ago, weathafella said: I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp… Hope everything is ok Jerry..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Pluffmud said: An every day lurker and infrequent poster I just want to lift up prayers and positive vibes for Jerry. He’s an important part of this forum and we wish him good health soon Same here, best wishes for a speedy recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end. Eventually 3 -6+For many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I stayed up until the 6z gfs yesterday Haha. Sicko. Parked in an alley counting down the minutes until the 6z gfs initializes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Haha. Sicko. Parked in an alley counting down the minutes until the 6z gfs initializes. I worked overtime so I got out at 330am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The UK has improved toward looking like low end moderate snows. Good for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I worked overtime so I got out at 330am. At the desk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: At the desk? I was outside 9 hours overtime 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end. Eventually 3 -6+For many Are you replacing the old DIT? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I was outside 9 hours overtime Street beat ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Street beat ? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Are you replacing the old DIT? Did he listen to Scott and Will? That’s basically my default every time. LOL. If I was in Vegas I think I would go with those odds every time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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