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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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I have no direct meteorological observations lending to the following statement - just model experience, alone:

Newer runs of the GFS will continue the 06z and be trending ... while the other models seem to tick NW.  GFS may even go 20% less at 12z, then another 20 at 18z ...then the 00z completes the overcompensating.  Meanwhile, the Euro's been ticking NW. The GFS comes partially back tomorrow ...and what ultimately happens is something like S/SE zones get clipped by light.  Everyone else? #BLNT

That's just long years of operational/model experience telling me that... Usually, @< 96 hours the Euro won't approach absolute wrongness, nor will the GFS.  It's really rather remarkable to have both operational runs be that diametric, such that they were on the 00z run.  One is a upper moderate-lower major, the other is model .1 to .8" snow coverage - which is tantamount to model-noise dust and isn't even real.  So it's like we have all or nothing on the 00z run comparison, for an event squarely < D5.  Now that's a neat case.

So, some sort of compromise tends to verify ... whether that is 60/40 ... 30/70 ... 55/45 ... etc, with either coming in first place.   Right now that imaginary blend has more of flat bottle-rocket wave with a compressed light cold side affair across primarily CT-RI-E Ma up to maybe Logan.  

If the Euro is 'that' wrong, or the GFS is 'that' wrong - ...I also would almost give either some sympathy because we've found our selves yet again polluted with too much base-line velocity and hyper compression in the total hemisphere.  

 

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My rule of thumb is that if it's not yet in NAM range, it's too soon to create a thread.  Not that the NAM is going to tell us much that's reliable--but until that time frame, we really are still in that main thread realm of general pattern and 'looks'.

A caveat to this is that when we have a couple "looks" within a couple days of each other, splitting them out can alleviate confusion.  Other than that though--just enjoy what they show in that general look. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

06 Euro did inch North. Good sign. Talked to Jerry.  Waiting on more tests. Rough night for him. Please keep him in your thoughts 

A light event is still a possibility.  Thank you for the update on Jerry, glad he’s at least in the right place under medical care/observation.  
I’m not a super religious person, but I prayed to the almighty last night to take care and watch over him.  Jerry is a great guy. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro ticked NW

Get some rest. Long and tough tracking days are head for you.

 

10 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

My gut all along is that we maybe get 1"-3" here in Connecticut. I still think that's the case. I do think the Euro will take the Snows back up a bit oh, and the GFS will slide south of it

I didn’t think we even had anything to track until late month, back on 12/1, so even 1-3” would be welcomed.

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Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end.  Eventually 3 -6+For many

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end.  Eventually 3 -6+For many

Are you replacing the old DIT?

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