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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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I'm sure this has been mentioned - all do creds and salutations ...

But, there is some modest NORLUN aspects about this Wed night system, where despite the models having coalesced around a surface track really too far out to be meaningful, there is a fair amount of mid level wind anomaly still moving SW-NE over us.  This trough's open wave appeal has the wind momentum aloft smear back W-N ..etc.

Anyway, that tends to want to add some lift to the column in my mind. SO ...I open the NAM and there it is; both the 32 and 12 km version do lay in a 6 hour stationary band of frozen QPF from roughly EEN to Logan by 50 miles either side.  The 3 km is more of a smear but it does 'fill in' with it a bit.  ...I mean, it's just the fact that they do -

Also, as an aside and for how little it is worth, the ICON ( of bad performance ) model, has been actually trending west.  

I am wondering if the RGEM is liking some NORLUN/ IVT suggestion too ?  Maybe that's more of a meso-beta scale phenomenon and these alternate model types do tend to have insight in those scales - unfortunately ( tho ...) about as much as they also day dream there.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Isn’t a person here who wouldn’t want that INVT no matter how fraudulent it may be. Similar to fake and synoptic snow last 2 days in Gaylord Michigan. 29 inches posted in the upstate NY thread by Josh_4184

435696FB-9AA3-442A-A5AC-C51AD582072F.jpeg

I already mentioned...I buy it at this range....just tough to pin hopes to it as you would a storm because scope is so limited and its relatively unpredictable.

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair, we’re only barely 1/4 of the the way through it as of today. So it would be incredibly premature to call it “not to remember” when we have 24 more days to the month.  But I get your drift. 

People forget how boring 12/2008 was in terms of snowfall until holiday week....

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

People forget how boring 12/2008 was in terms of snowfall until holiday week....

People forget a lot of things…the angst in here is almost too much to take sometimes. The volatility in the modeling has been huge…and it’s tough to say where things go in 10-15 days, let alone 3-4 weeks.  But folks are jumping out of trees with nooses around their necks all over the place in here.  
 

It’s the 7th of December…let’s all remember that. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

People forget a lot of things…the angst in here is almost too much to take sometimes. The volatility in the modeling has been huge…and it’s tough to say where things go in 10-15 days, let alone 3-4 weeks.  But folks are jumping out of trees with nooses around their necks all over the place in here.  
 

It’s the 7th of December…let’s all remember that. 

I still feel very good about later this month in through the new year...hang tight.

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