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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Soundings become extremely unstable.

I mean, this is classic heavy snow sounding from an IVT....I do think there's a decent chance something will set up, but we just don't know where yet.

image.png.cf155a95ac4a172b33c5cb9b82cee48d.png

 

You can't forecast those...all you do is engage in an ill advised game of the pin the tail on the delusion.

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8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, Yeah, Especially when the 12z HRRR has it 70 miles or so NE of the Nam, I hate these systems that keep showing these troughs.

HRRR has it like 10 mi NE of me...I may not be in a bad spot given some sort of compromise. God, what am I doing....its an inverted freaking trough.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I mean they happen...just a matter of where.

The ingredients are there for a good one...we have deep moisture....not dry above like 800mb, lol. Extremely unstable lapse rates occur too.

You just need the LL convergence/lift.

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Soundings become extremely unstable.

I mean, this is classic heavy snow sounding from an IVT....I do think there's a decent chance something will set up, but we just don't know where yet.

image.png.cf155a95ac4a172b33c5cb9b82cee48d.png

 

I would suspect ratios would be quite high under that. Probably even maximizing ratio potential too...sufficiently cold through the column, super light winds, and looks like a cross-hair sig too. Maybe ratios upwards of 20:1? 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I would suspect ratios would be quite high under that. Probably even maximizing ratio potential too...sufficiently cold through the column, super light winds, and looks like a cross-hair sig too. Maybe ratios upwards of 20:1? 

Grab a 40oz under that and just touch yourself visualizing the CAPE

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I would suspect ratios would be quite high under that. Probably even maximizing ratio potential too...sufficiently cold through the column, super light winds, and looks like a cross-hair sig too. Maybe ratios upwards of 20:1? 

Oh for sure...if it actually verified...someone would prob get 10-12" fluff bomb from that look. The problem as we've been saying, this might set up 200 miles away too.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh for sure...if it actually verified...someone would prob get 10-12" fluff bomb from that look. The problem as we've been saying, this might set up 200 miles away too.

Yup...that's the challenge with these things. Incredibly difficult to pinpoint where they occur and sometimes even when modeled they don't materialize as so 

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