40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Time will tell.... Time has already told....the months of September and October don't mean anything with respect to winter, whether this season is mild or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 https://www.wwlp.com/news/local-news/hampden-county/video-alligator-spotted-in-westfield-river/amp/ Video of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense. If I was agreeing with you, you would say that I am making sense lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 We would all have a field day tracking if we lived near the great lakes. Non stop tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not that it matters at day 45, but I didn't think it was brutal...I see what you mean about the EPO ridge collapsing, but a couple of caveats... 1) Signals at that extensive lead time can get muted. 2) The PV is really biased to our side of the globe just N of Hudson's Bay, though fairly stout...I think we'd have chances in that set up. I would take that look...its actually not that mild here. Looks like room for scooter highs in QC and Swfe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: If I was agreeing with you, you would say that I am making sense lol... Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data. If you would like to argue that this winter will be well below normal in snowfall, feel free, but it won't be because of how mild October was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, because this isn't a subjective argument....if anything, there is an inverse correlation between Sept/Oct and winter. It not about agreeing with me, its about correctly interpreting data. Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast. My forecast wasn't cold, it was near normal. Your thoughts and opinions are worthless when they run counter to facts, as are mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 at least we have gators 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: My forecast wasn't cold, it was near normal. Your thoughts and opinions are worthless when they run counter to facts. Did you base some of your past winter forecasts on facts??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Did you base some of your past winter forecasts on facts??? Yes. Were said facts always weighted appropriately into the forecast? No, which is why some were misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Well you are entitled to your thoughts and opinions and I am entitled to mine. We disagree.....good luck with your cold and snowy winter forecast. You do realize he can still be right ? It's not even winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: You do realize he can still be right ? It's not even winter yet. Perfectly valid to think the winter will be awful...that may prove correct. All I meant was that fact RE the fall correlation to winter isn't debatable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: You do realize he can still be right ? It's not even winter yet. I hope he is going to be right BUT at this point there needs to be a massive pattern change. I find the bolded interesting because you begin to look for winter weather in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Perfectly valid to think the winter will be awful...that may prove correct. All I meant was that fact RE the fall correlation to winter isn't debatable. Perhaps in the new climate regime the fall is going to be weighed more heavily... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I hope he is going to be right BUT at this point there needs to be a massive pattern change. I find the bolded interesting because you begin to look for winter weather in October... I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensifies in October, but TBH, it never stops.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Perhaps in the new climate regime the fall is going to be weighed more heavily... Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Greatsnow, all Ray and Will mean is that September and October can be very warm, and the winters following many times turn out fine-Good. Some of you guys are way to downtrodden all the time. We are just getting into the winter…let’s see how it goes going forward. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I hope he is going to be right BUT at this point there needs to be a massive pattern change. I find the bolded interesting because you begin to look for winter weather in October... Late September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, maybe...possible. In that respect, we will need to wait to see. In the grand scheme of things, we have such a minuscule amount of data that correlations can always change. one of the problems is comparing current day temps/precip to 30 year norms. Current day temps should be compared to the long term data set for reporting stations. And yes I do realize that the "official" gathering place for the data has changed within cities and towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Great Snow snarling this morning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...its not the start to the season I expected. You are right that the collection data really intensified in October, but TBH, it never stops.... BINGO...it never does stop. I think alot of the early looks ahead to winter that early (heck probably even going into late summer) stem with those involved in energy demand/forecasting. But I have to agree...at least from the minimal work I've done with attempting long-range forecasting there is not a whole heck of correlation between fall/winter. Significant changes happen to the northern hemisphere during this period from changing wavelengths to changing correlations between teleconnectors and the overall pattern. Also, you can have significant short-term weather phenomena which can result in a significant hemispheric pattern change. For example, perhaps a significant recurving typhoon in the PAC or a monster ATL storm which completely re-shapes the NAO or a significant stratospheric event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Great Snow snarling this morning Not at all this isn't Fox News lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Late September oh gee I forgot you turn your attention to winter weather once the Mets have been eliminated from contention....but isn't that usually by the end of July??? lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 going to lock that NAM run for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: one of the problems is comparing current day temps/precip to 30 year norms. Current day temps should be compared to the long term data set for reporting stations. And yes I do realize that the "official" gathering place for the data has changed within cities and towns. Absolutely right....it makes the use of analogs more challenging, certainly, but doesn't strip them of their value IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: going to lock that NAM run for here Hanging your hopes on a norlun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 NAM gone wild with IVT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely right....it makes the use of analogs more challenging, certainly, but doesn't strip them of their value IMO. I have never been a fan of using 30 year norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM gone wild with IVT I'd take that, but I'd almost feel dirty coming from an inverted fraud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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