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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
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This is absolutely ridiculous. So freaking sick and tired of this. Everything just turns to crap. crap...crap...crap. Winter isn't even fun anymore....it's just full of stupid dry cold and then when we get something we torch. This is why social media sucks...everyone going bonkers posting D5-7+ garbage and then sounding alarms b/c there is "good agreement" at D5 and then it all goes to SHIT. Was a nice 2-3'' of snow that much to ask for????? :angry: 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

This is absolutely ridiculous. So freaking sick and tired of this. Everything just turns to crap. crap...crap...crap. Winter isn't even fun anymore....it's just full of stupid dry cold and then when we get something we torch. This is why social media sucks...everyone going bonkers posting D5-7+ garbage and then sounding alarms b/c there is "good agreement" at D5 and then it all goes to SHIT. Was a nice 2-3'' of snow that much to ask for????? :angry: 

I think I have a shot at 2"+ out here...

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I have a shot at 2"+ out here...

much better than me. 

This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I wasn’t expecting a Wizzy melt on 12/7 over 1-2”, that’s for sure.

The first few inches of the season are always special...or hell the first storm really. Also knowing what lies ahead with the pattern moving forward we need to capitalize on any chance (no matter how minor) we can get

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

much better than me. 

This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. 

It is maddening...I had a minimelt last night, but its only early Dec....some of the best seasons didn't do jack until after xmas, though that is a dangerous slope in a la nina.....most of the good ones are not late starters. However, I will say that last season is one of the better ENSO analogs, and it pulled off the late start. I think we will need help from the arctic, though because this one is much better coupled than last season, which acted more like a warm ENSO event.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

much better than me. 

This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. 

Stop moaning and start looking at the positives. Stomping your feet and flailing your arms will not change the outcome. You have to be prepared for this. I am 50 now, I went through the eighties where it wasn't the most Banner decade of snow. However, there are always those few storms that made you forget about how bad a winter was. And I'm sure we'll have the same this winter. Chin up and pull those big boy pants up and look forward to what will come ahead. 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

And what a brutal looking eps run thru D45. Maybe some chances around NYE with a transient AK ridge but back to death heights there in Jan again.  

Not that it matters at day 45, but I didn't think it was brutal...I see what you mean about the EPO ridge collapsing, but a couple of caveats...

1) Signals at that extensive lead time can get muted.

2) The PV is really biased to our side of the globe just N of Hudson's Bay, though fairly stout...I think we'd have chances in that set up.

I would take that look...its actually not that mild here.

1642723200-I00Nl9bMItk.png

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not that it matters at day 45, but I didn't think it was brutal...I see what you mean about the EPO ridge collapsing, but a couple of caveats...

1) Signals at that extensive lead time can get muted.

2) The PV is really biased to our side of the globe just N of Hudson's Bay, though fairly stout...I think we'd have chances in that set up.

I would take that look...its actually not that mild here.

1642723200-I00Nl9bMItk.png

Gotchya. Thanks. Probably a gradient look that favors NoP. We need a better look down here though. 

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