dryslot Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Wow I thought that was coming NW through about 30 hours and then everything just escapes east. There just isn’t enough concentrated energy to take advantage of the sharper trough. Buckshot vorticity FTL. No help from the southern stream, Its all northern stream driven but we will need it to consolidate more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The vorticity will have no issue consolidating over Buffalo next week LOL...doesn’t need to when there’s a trough tickling Cabo San Lucas. Storms through BUF or through Chicago...same difference for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Yikes the nam got way ugly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: No help from the southern stream, Its all northern stream driven but we will need it to consolidate more. Yeah and I think we’re out of time...unless the NAM was a headfake and other guidance comes in beefed up. Best hope for more than 3” is prob someone getting lucky under IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: LOL...doesn’t need to when there’s a trough tickling Cabo San Lucas. Storms through BUF or through Chicago...same difference for us. I'd actually rather have it through Chicago...best WAA can sometimes go west of us of there is a good antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 This was called out days ago tho - systems deamp coming into shorter range. - model skill is inherently worse in this hemispheric circumstance. For whatever reason drives those observable biases … it doomed the GFS notions that originally triggered the enthusiasm for this thread. Heh. The upshot is the Euro needed a win … It may not nail all fields precisely but at this point probably righter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and I think we’re out of time...unless the NAM was a headfake and other guidance comes in beefed up. Best hope for more than 3” is prob someone getting lucky under IVT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: This was called out days ago tho - systems deamp coming into shorter range. - model skill is inherently worse in this hemispheric circumstance. For whatever reason drives those observable biases … it doomed the GFS notions that originally triggered the enthusiasm for this thread. Heh. The upshot is the Euro needed a win … It may not nail all fields precisely but at this point probably righter It didn't dampen, though...it just consolidates too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 That post should ensure a foot … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 These runs all have a little tickling finger of precip extending towards my backyard. Would this be an east wind situation? I max those out every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I mean… it’s still like 40 something hours away…. I suppose if it gets going a bit earlier, it could be intetesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It didn't dampen, though...it just consolidates too late. The euro D amplified it. The GFS had bad model performance… We can cut it up all we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s early obviously….. but tough to draw up a more frustrating start to the season…. This past weekends clipper also went poof Meh. None of these events looked good for more than a few runs 5+ days out. The pattern in general isn’t conducive for anything good. No skin off my back. I can think of a lot more frustrating things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and I think we’re out of time...unless the NAM was a headfake and other guidance comes in beefed up. Best hope for more than 3” is prob someone getting lucky under IVT. Yeah, This looks like its not going to get it done, But i'll wait to see the rest of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meh. None of these events looked good for more than a few runs 5+ days out. The pattern in general isn’t conducive for anything good. No skin off my back. I can think of a lot more frustrating things. Your in Tex ass… of course you don’t care 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The euro D amplified it. The GFS had bad model performance… We can cut it up all we want Well, tell Nova Scotia about the dampening lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Your in Tex ass… of course you don’t care I’ll be back tomorrow night with a binky for you. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 May as well just start a damaging wind threat for Sunday at this juncture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 If i grab a coating that sticks to the road I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, tell Nova Scotia about the dampening lol ‘Course …after the Gfs served for three days worth of runs, lies, …any takers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mean… it’s still like 40 something hours away…. I suppose if it gets going a bit earlier, it could be intetesting The thing is the entire deal will need to shift enough west to get the NS snows in here and I just do not see that at this range. If you notice, the shifts west don't do anything because the system is so diffuse back here that it doesn't bring heavier snow in. You need the entire cyclogen evolution to speed up by like 6-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ‘Course …after the Gfs served for three days worth of runs, lies, …any takers It dampened at our longitude yea, but it does eventually consolidate...semantics, I guess. I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It dampened at our longitude yea, but it does eventually consolidate...semantics, I guess. I know what you mean. The point was …,one of those two factors screwed this up in the case of the euro is definitely D amped the pattern in which this passed thru - it did not get feedbacks I’ve been watching it all week in the case of the GFS it timed it wrong . that’s model performance “models don’t perform well in these circumstance” - namely speed. Which also it’s kind of counterintuitive but I think the GFS nuanced with too much curvature in the larger scale flow earlier on, why it was getting a feedback sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Plus the GFS keeps trying to pinch off the bottom of that trough just before the warm-up farther out there. I don’t know if you guys been noticing that but again the GFS is probably high on everybody’s shit list right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The point was …,one of those two factors screwed this up in the case of the euro is definitely D amped the pattern in which this passed thru - it did not get feedbacks I’ve been watching it all week in the case of the GFS it timed it wrong . that’s model performance “models don’t perform well in these circumstance” - namely speed. Which also it’s kind of counterintuitive but I think the GFS nuanced with too much curvature in the larger scale flow earlier on, why it was getting a feedback sooner Yea, even a delay in development inherently implies deamplification...regardless of whether it ultimately realizes said potential downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Gfs whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs whiffs Terrible performance Remember when people thought this was going inland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs whiffs Congrats on the 2” Jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. That is the baroclinic zone. It’s just the area of thermal gradient where you get all the forcing and rapid development of the low. The way to not have it escape east is to weaken any front running shortwaves or energy and have the backside energy become dominant. This is kind of the issue on the current threat. We don’t have a really defined area of energy (usually seen as vorticity on the 500mb maps)....instead we have some weak impulses embedded in the trough. We really want the vorticity more defined near the base of the trough....that will naturally tend to happen of the trough becomes sharper so that is why we are rooting for that look. Thanks for this explanation. Even if this system misses there is a lot to learn...thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 12:22 PM, Torch Tiger said: This will likely be the first "significant" winter event of the winter for many in the NE forum. Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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