Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

sometimes I don't get that option. 

I wonder if it happens on other browsers

Does it to me on safari to a lesser extent....laptop is 7 years old, so...

[weatherwiz]

First call. 

Lots of positives here for sure! Could certainly trend in either direction but definitely loving the signals which are trending in a favorable direction 

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s important to note that this is also the NAM. Nothing else, especially the euro, is showing anything like this 

With the way the Euro has been, Are you trusting it 100%?

[MJO812]

Gfs shifted south

 

Looks like the Euro

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is going to be slight south and east of 12z…. Looks like everything is getting squashed a bit more this run.

NAM hitting the sauce 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs is going to be slight south and east of 12z…. Looks like everything is getting squashed a bit more this run.

NAM hitting the sauce 

Or maybe the Nam is right

[dryslot]

18z GFS was a slight improvement again @H5, Don't care what it shows right now at the surface.

[weathafella]

Gfs is certainly an advisory event for eastern areas.

[ORH_wxman]

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

[weatherwiz]

GFS just seems a bit flatter with the trough. but as stated...it's a definite improvement from before. I take that as a win 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Gfs is certainly an advisory event for eastern areas.

Surprised some of the queens in here didn't point out how much better it was for SE MA than 12z.

[Henry's Weather]

Huh... the GFS seems to ever so slightly reach neutral tilt sooner. Note the placement change of the 540 line. It's miniscule difference but it can be shown by a slight enhancement at the surface compared to 18z once the system gets going

[BombsAway1288]

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast.

On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

[dryslot]

What i keep in the back of my mind is keeping an eye to see if it starts to consolidate more going forward and starts to lose more of the IVT look that it has had in previous runs especially yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast.

On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

Might be tough right near water or in an urban heat island with light rates, but the airmass itself isn't exactly marginal. 925 temps are like -5C.....so prob upper 20s interior to near freezing on coast...maybe mid 30s right on the water and that's where most of the accumulation issues might happen in light rates.

[dryslot]

It would be helpful if we had more ridging out ahead of this too, But that just may be some spacing issues from today's that keeps it a bit flatter and east, But when you want some help from a SE ridge we don't have any.

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might be tough right near water or in an urban heat island with light rates, but the airmass itself isn't exactly marginal. 925 temps are like -5C.....so prob upper 20s interior to near freezing on coast...maybe mid 30s right on the water and that's where most of the accumulation issues might happen in light rates.

Probably should of specified a marginal airmass within a couple miles of the coast. Yeah, anywhere west of Boston should be good temp wise in the upper 20's. As for the coast, there's no chance of good accumulation when temps are near freezing and the precip is light

[Henry's Weather]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

Is what I've circled the baroclinic zone? First off, what is a baroclinic zone and second, how would it be prevented from escaping east?

[dendrite]

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What i keep in the back of my mind is keeping an eye to see if it starts to consolidate more going forward and starts to lose more of the IVT look that it has had in previous runs especially yesterday.

Almost pure deformation at H92 now.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was a uniquely maddening season. I have always said, play that year out 99 more times, and we'd do better each and every time.

A winter in which BWI has 7" more snow than CAR probably has a return interval similar to 1938 and the Octobomb.

If we get more than an inch on Wednesday, I'll call it a win.  (Unless S.Maine is getting a foot.)

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

First call. 

Lots of positives here for sure! Could certainly trend in either direction but definitely loving the signals which are trending in a favorable direction 

You know it's bad when GON jacks.

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Surprised some of the queens in here didn't point out how much better it was for SE MA than 12z.

Only ones who might live there would point that out.

[WxFreak11]

Local Mets here in the PVD area calling for a trace to maybe an inch of snow

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

That s the rub.  

[codfishsnowman]

gfs has an ambitious solution for the weekend....was ambitious for this one too

maybe its programmed to spit out more sensational outcomes when certain criteria are met?

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

gfs has an ambitious solution for the weekend....was ambitious for this one too

maybe its programmed to spit out more sensational outcomes when certain criteria are met?

Day6 is a legitimate certain criteria.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

gfs has an ambitious solution for the weekend....was ambitious for this one too

maybe its programmed to spit out more sensational outcomes when certain criteria are met?

Arent we going to be to warm for anything other than rain this weekend? 

[SouthCoastMA]

might be too warm here now. meh

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is what I've circled the baroclinic zone? First off, what is a baroclinic zone and second, how would it be prevented from escaping east?

Yes. That is the baroclinic zone. It’s just the area of thermal gradient where you get all the forcing and rapid development of the low. The way to not have it escape east is to weaken any front running shortwaves or energy and have the backside energy become dominant. This is kind of the issue on the current threat. We don’t have a really defined area of energy (usually seen as vorticity on the 500mb maps)....instead we have some weak impulses embedded in the trough. We really want the vorticity more defined near the base of the trough....that will naturally tend to happen of the trough becomes sharper so that is why we are rooting for that look. 

[MJO812]

Euro just trended west by alot

[IowaStorm05]

I’m glad that we didn’t lose this. At least not completely, and that trends look good.

The TV dude even said it, but a few of us are right in what is probably a pretty favorable spot especially in the hills above a couple hundred feet.

now I work right on the south coast, but live in Willimantic. And the difference between temps and snow averages between the two locations is enough that I’m willing to work outdoors in the winter on the coast, but probably would not do it in interior “upstate” CT. It’s nearly always 2-4 degrees cooler where I live, and We average 3 times as much snow as locations on the water, and we aren’t even in a relatively favorable spot compared to a few towns nearby.