Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed

Its okay to be frustrated with the fact that cutter after cutter keeps wrapping up west of us, but then the one system that looks timed right to provide significant snow gets sheared out. Its not a snow map thing...its just a "that sucks soggy ass" thing. Just like last December, when we couldn't buy a phase, then the Grinch phases like a Mo-fo when it would have been a light snowfall, otherwise.

[weatherwiz]

This system is going to be up in the air until probably the last minute. The ceiling for overperforming (somewhere) is pretty high. Having the baroclinic zone so far north (which all models are in general agreement on) is a nice to see. I don't know what the odds are for this to develop on the earlier side but this does have potential to get its act together in enough time to get a band of moderate snow to traverse CT, RI, and eastern MA. Going to be lots of moisture thrown into this system with favorable thermal profiles and great dynamics to work with. So the frame work is there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

This system is going to be up in the air until probably the last minute. The ceiling for overperforming (somewhere) is pretty high. Having the baroclinic zone so far north (which all models are in general agreement on) is a nice to see. I don't know what the odds are for this to develop on the earlier side but this does have potential to get its act together in enough time to get a band of moderate snow to traverse CT, RI, and eastern MA. Going to be lots of moisture thrown into this system with favorable thermal profiles and great dynamics to work with. So the frame work is there. 

Agree.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its okay to be frustrated with the fact that cutter after cutter keeps wrapping up west of us, but then the one system that looks timed right to provide significant snow gets sheared out. Its not a snow map thing...its just a "that sucks soggy ass" thing. Just like last December, when we couldn't buy a phase, then the Grinch phases like a Mo-fo when it would have been a light snowfall, otherwise.

This is precisely why this winter I am going to try hard and not get so invested in anything that is beyond 4 days out. The past few winters have been a dangling carrot in front of the horse. The pattern we just become established in is just too chaotic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is precisely why this winter I am going to try hard and not get so invested in anything that is beyond 4 days out. The past few winters have been a dangling carrot in front of the horse. The pattern we just become established in is just too chaotic.

The good news is that while some of the seasonal models look mild, none of them look dry. That is good ratter insurance IMO....the vast majority of our ratters are fairly dry, unless its a super el nino torch. I feel confident this will not be a ratter for the  majority of SNE.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The good news is that while some of the seasonal models look mild, none of them look dry. That is good ratter insurance IMO....the vast majority of our ratters are fairly dry, unless its a super el nino torch.

One of the first things I like to see when looking long-term/seasonal in the winter for us is whether the pattern looks wet or dry. If it looks wet...I don't care what temperature anomalies look like or what the averaged smoothed out pattern looks like. At our latitude, if we are above-average precip for the winter there's a good bet we're getting at least one great snow event. 

[dryslot]

Discussion for another thread but i don't think anyone wants to see a dry pattern in winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One of the first things I like to see when looking long-term/seasonal in the winter for us is whether the pattern looks wet or dry. If it looks wet...I don't care what temperature anomalies look like or what the averaged smoothed out pattern looks like. At our latitude, if we are above-average precip for the winter there's a good bet we're getting at least one great snow event. 

Yea, our snowfall is more closely correlated to precip, than temps...different story for around NYC and points southward. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Getting into the earlier ages whence it it becomes lesser wise to question the guidance particularly < 80 hours.

But having the Euro be that far S/suppressed compared to the GFS  ... does tend to force needing to ask the question in this case.  Weird. 'specially this close.

The NAM notoriously has a NW bias over the western Atlantic > 48 hours out for these type of ascending waves.  Actually ... I don't see that as not being the case with everything, really -

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Discussion for another thread but i don't think anyone wants to see a dry pattern in winter.

Well, right....lol

The point is that positive temp anomalies are less prohibitive to seasonal snowfall here than they are to the south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting into the earlier ages whence it it becomes lesser wise to question the guidance.

But having the Euro be that far S/suppressed compared to the GFS  ... does tend to force needing to ask the question in this case.  Weird. 'specially this close.

The NAM notorious has a NW bias over the western Atlantic > 48 hours out. 

We are within 48 hours, I think...

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, right....lol

The point is that positive temp anomalies are less prohibitive to seasonal snowfall here than they are to the south.

Definitely, A +2 or 3 in Jan up here is still below freezing so its a non factor as we get into Jan-Feb as far as temps go, But we want a wet pattern too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Definitely, A +2 or 3 in Jan up here is still below freezing so its a non factor as we get into Jan-Feb as far as temps go, But we want a wet pattern too.

+3F is pushing it down here, but anything less primarily impacts retention.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are within 48 hours, I think...

Looks like it brings the goods around 54 but ...that to me doesn't diminish the notion either way, because it doesn't just get all the sudden un-hindered of bias at 48 hours, either. 

Plus... f'n NAM

[weatherwiz]

FWIW as we're getting inside the 48-hour window but the 18z HRRR seems to be siding with a NAM-type ordeal

 

EDIT:

 

Scratch this...I had the NAM up not the HRRR

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The good news is that while some of the seasonal models look mild, none of them look dry. That is good ratter insurance IMO....the vast majority of our ratters are fairly dry, unless its a super el nino torch. I feel confident this will not be a ratter for the  majority of SNE.

The Euro seasonal is exceptionally dry this winter 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro seasonal is exceptionally dry this winter 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That’s not the one I saw. Let me see if I can find it 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

FWIW as we're getting inside the 48-hour window but the 18z HRRR seems to be siding with a NAM-type ordeal

 

EDIT:

 

Scratch this...I had the NAM up not the HRRR

18z HRRR is NW like the NAM is too

 

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One of the first things I like to see when looking long-term/seasonal in the winter for us is whether the pattern looks wet or dry. If it looks wet...I don't care what temperature anomalies look like or what the averaged smoothed out pattern looks like. At our latitude, if we are above-average precip for the winter there's a good bet we're getting at least one great snow event. 

A good bet but not a lock.  2009-10 was an exception (in many ways!)  Each month November thru March had AN precip and the 5-month period had 128% of normal.  Snowfall was on the borderline between BN and ratter; frustration was at thermonuclear level.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the one I saw. Let me see if I can find it 

DJF looks pretty much the same.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

A good bet but not a lock.  2009-10 was an exception (in many ways!)  Each month November thru March had AN precip and the 5-month period had 128% of normal.  Snowfall was on the borderline between BN and ratter; frustration was at thermonuclear level.

That was a uniquely maddening season. I have always said, play that year out 99 more times, and we'd do better each and every time.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

18z HRRR is NW like the NAM is too

 

Yup! I feel a bit better now  Was looking at NAM when I thought I was looking at the HRRR 

 I always love when the HRRR gets into range (even if it's at the 48-hour mark) b/c it can really be useful when spotting and assessing for trends. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will say that a lot of very negative PDO seasons can be dry across the US, but the PDO is not very highly correlated to our quadrant of the country.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not the one I saw. Let me see if I can find it 

(goes to search twitter)

[Damage In Tolland]

I’ll find it. The DJF map which is when winter is.. was dry 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

(goes to search twitter)

“Do you have the Euro seasonal image saved prior to this update? I recall the last one showed much drier than normal didn’t it?”

[Damage In Tolland]

Nina winters following wet summers compositely have been drier than normal 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll find it. The DJF map which is when winter is.. was dry 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

“Do you have the Euro seasonal image saved prior to this update? I recall the last one showed much drier than normal didn’t it?”

I have a few texts out. I know the DJF maps were Uber dry in last update. I distinctly remember it