TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Nice low end warning event on the NAM for SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would prefer it not be there, I don't care where it ends up. Those are the kiss of death for a nice event. I would too, We just need the northern stream to keep digging SE to get that surface low back further west, That's one of the keys and for it to stay amped up as well, Heights out ahead were somewhat better too so a combo of all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: NAM a solid 1 to 3. I'd take that then some nice warm air for mid month. ...Because warm December weather always gets people in the holiday spirit. Brown ground, mild temps, and boring weather. Such a great thing to look forward to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I would too, We just need the northern stream to keep digging SE to get that surface low back further west, That's one of the keys and for it to stay amped up as well, Heights out ahead were somewhat better too so a combo of all of it. That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Cold Miser said: ...Because warm December weather always gets people in the holiday spirit. Brown ground, mild temps, and boring weather. Such a great thing to look forward to. At least the timing is such that we should be able to look ahead to the change during the holiday GTG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away. It try's too inject more northern stream energy, But you don't get it to capture and close off until its well north of here, That's why i want to see it keep digging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 RGEM looks marginally better.....general 1-2 for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Icon is further south with the coastal but gets more snow in here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Nice low end warning event on the NAM for SE Mass Are we holding off on punting it to the moon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Are we holding off on punting it to the moon? We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM It's not only the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3". 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something. I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3". First flakes/snow for me. I’ll take that pre-12/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3". Last night's 00z GGEM is the only current model run that didn't have at least an inch or two....and it's probably going to cave at 12z given what he RGEM has done since 00z. It's getting fairly likely we see some accumulating snows over a good chunk of SNE. Whether that's an inch or two or something more prolific remains to be seen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Need to get rid of that IVT look that keeps popping up every run up here, So keep backing the slp in. No thanks. Get that IVT up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: No thanks. Get that IVT up here. Good luck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Solid warning event here if guidance holds with death band tantalizing close. Another tick or two west and double digits might be attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Good luck. I prefer the higher upside with the IVT vs SNE sloppy seconds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 12z GFS is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I prefer the higher upside with the IVT or get nothing vs SNE sloppy seconds. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 GFS trough was deeper but it looked slightly more progressive so it was kind of a wash with 06z for sensible wx impact. PRecip was maybe a little more widespread than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Gfs isn’t going to get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS trough was deeper but it looked slightly more progressive so it was kind of a wash with 06z for sensible wx impact. PRecip was maybe a little more widespread than 06z. do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold? No idea, i don't use those maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold? Must be a BS algorithm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: Interesting. Good luck. Ribbing aside, the 3k NAM gets a little of both into SW ME. You can see the sfc convergence zone and the reflectivities blow up along it amid the larger, weaker synoptic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good luck. Franklin County and IVTs - things that never meet. The 0.6" from today's warm rain may be more snow than falls here Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Franklin County and IVTs - things that never meet. The 0.6" from today's warm rain may be more snow than falls here Wednesday. Right now, I don't expect much if any unless this keeps ticking west on upcoming runs, Its rare for the IVT here as well, Certainly not going to rely on it to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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