Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, bwt3650 said:

I'm gonna sell the Sierra going from 400" to zero in the next 28 years...little dramatic

Lmao exactly!  

[CoastalWx]

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the next two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

[IowaStorm05]

9 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It's not as simple as global warming = less snow. 

higher temps = more moisture... stronger storms...

Well for certain areas absolutely. But push the envelope enough and you end up with mostly rain most of the time.

I could envision a period where we get widespread 48 inch snowstorms across SNE once every 2 or 3 years, while most of the time it’s always rain. 

See I think coastal SNE temps nowadays are really marginal for good snow to be reliable. From what I’ve read and studied we can’t afford several degrees of warmer on average. We might occasionally get massive snowstorms but like, not all the time or anything. 
 

i don’t really know what it’s going to do, except to say that I think this region is guaranteed to be in for very thundery summers in the future at least. This past summer was intense, with stormy patterns and those hot waters offshore helping to prevent atmosphere stabilization, lots and lots of thunderstorms. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the best two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

Funny … the CPC tele isn’t anywhere close to ver extreme. I’ve see that deeper.  Interesting 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the next two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

Absolutely!   Banana hammocks and peace pipes. Folks get so dam dramatic.  OMG it’s never gonna snow again BS.  

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely!   Banana hammocks and peace pipes. Folks get so dam dramatic.  OMG it’s never gonna snow again BS.  

The warming trend is very real though. December has been a torch averaged over the past decade. 

Fastest temperature rise of any winter month. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

Well for certain areas absolutely. But push the envelope enough and you end up with mostly rain most of the time.

I could envision a period where we get widespread 48 inch snowstorms across SNE once every 2 or 3 years, while most of the time it’s always rain. 

You better lay off the Bong bro….

[TalcottWx]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The warming trend is very real though. December has been a torch averaged over the past decade. 

Fastest temperature rise of any winter month. 

And BOS 30 year snow average has done nothing but increase..... Just playing devil's advocate here.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The warming trend is very real though. December has been a torch averaged over the past decade. 

Fastest temperature rise of any winter month. 

Ya ya ya…and Al Gore told everybody back in 2000, that by 2015 there’d be no more snow in New England.  How’d that work out? 
 

It’s gonna snow this winter here. And it’s gonna snow every winter going forward from now.  And that’s a fact.  

[Hazey]

Do they convert to centimeters for Canadian accums?

Yes that is in cms. So 16” in Yarmouth to 10 out east. Environment Canada always goes a little conservative but a foot is possible if everything comes together in my opinion.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The best way to reverse GW is for every weenie to violently heave their shovels and snowblowers into their local scrapyards. 

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the next two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

Yeah, maybe if you miss a snowstorm by 0.5C you might wonder about 50 years ago.

But this? Pilgrims would be chillin’ on the beach, happy to be warm.  Looks like the real deal for a December “relaxation.”

[IowaStorm05]

8 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

And BOS 30 year snow average has done nothing but increase..... Just playing devil's advocate here.

But the mountain west is in even bigger trouble. Especially California. I get warmer atmosphere so bigger storms idea it works for some regions but no, West Coast mountain ranges CANNOT afford more global warming. The area is already heavily dependent on colder air masses to allow snow levels to fall low enough to drop deep snow packs. Even if, for a time, the warmer atmosphere allows for bigger snowstorms, the pineapple expresses and warmer overall flow will melt those. No matter how you slice it there won’t be a snowpack left to provide California the water the way they have things set up today. 
 

The whole region there is dependent on a slowly melting deep snowpack to last into late spring. Bigger storms or not that’s not gonna be a thing in 40 years. But I will probably be dead by then so those people will just have to move.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya ya ya…and Al Gore told everybody back in 2000, that by 2015 there’d be no more snow in New England.  How’d that work out? 
 

It’s gonna snow this winter here. And it’s gonna snow every winter going forward from now.  And that’s a fact.  

That is not a fact actually but we get what you’re howling wolfie. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

And the mountain west is in even bigger trouble. Especially California. I get warmer atmosphere so bigger storms idea it works for some regions but no, West Coast mountain ranges CANNOT afford more global warming. The area is already heavily dependent on colder air masses to allow snow levels to fall low enough to drop deep snow packs. Even if, for a time, the warmer atmosphere allows for bigger snowstorms, the pineapple expresses and warmer overall flow will melt those. No matter how you slice it there won’t be a snowpack left to provide California the water the way they have things set up today. 

Until it’s not.  

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

But the mountain west is in even bigger trouble. Especially California. I get warmer atmosphere so bigger storms idea it works for some regions but no, West Coast mountain ranges CANNOT afford more global warming. The area is already heavily dependent on colder air masses to allow snow levels to fall low enough to drop deep snow packs. Even if, for a time, the warmer atmosphere allows for bigger snowstorms, the pineapple expresses and warmer overall flow will melt those. No matter how you slice it there won’t be a snowpack left to provide California the water the way they have things set up today. 

I have a much more basic understanding of western us meteorology- only really the basical meteo 101 or dealing w/ mountain ranges, ocean marine layers, etc, from what I know from here. So I have to defer to others on this topic.

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

And the mountain west is in even bigger trouble. Especially California. I get warmer atmosphere so bigger storms idea it works for some regions but no, West Coast mountain ranges CANNOT afford more global warming. The area is already heavily dependent on colder air masses to allow snow levels to fall low enough to drop deep snow packs. Even if, for a time, the warmer atmosphere allows for bigger snowstorms, the pineapple expresses and warmer overall flow will melt those. No matter how you slice it there won’t be a snowpack left to provide California the water the way they have things set up today. 

Isn't rain instead of snow just as good out there?

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That is not a fact actually but we get what you’re howling wolfie. 

Ya that is a fact Luke. It’s gonna snow here this winter. Even in the worst ratters, it snows here. May not be much..but it always snows some.  

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, maybe if you miss a snowstorm by 0.5C you might wonder about 50 years ago.

But this? Pilgrims would be chillin’ on the beach, happy to be warm.  Looks like the real deal for a December “relaxation.”

I feel like putting this down to just the isotherms is a injustice to global warming.

I think we know absolutely nothing about what might occur as a result. 

But that's just my opinion.

I do understand how intricate meteorology can be.

[IowaStorm05]

5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Isn't rain instead of snow just as good out there?

For water resources there It’s all about how it’s stored and delivered. 
 

Im not as good at explaining it as they are but in essence not really, somehow they need the precip to fall as snow, and for that snow to stick around into late spring to work the way they need it to for today’s setup of reservoirs.

they say that when it falls as rain, it goes to waste somehow, by running off or evaporating. That’s it I think. The evaporation. 
 

and frankly, climate change models suggest that warming is not going to be doing any favors for precip amounts in California overall, so it’s not like there’s going to likely be a significant increase in annual precip from modeled climate change to make up for the fact that it’s not being captured and saved as snow. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that is a fact Luke. It’s gonna snow here this winter. Even in the worst ratters, it snows here. May not be much..but it always snows some.  

“Snow every winter moving forward” is not a fact, by definition. It is a speculative and a fairly damn safe one for sure, based on historical data, but what happens 25,50,100, 500 winters from now….you seem to know. Interesting.

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

For water resources there It’s all about how it’s stored and delivered. 
 

Im not as good at explaining it as they are but in essence not really, somehow they need the precip to fall as snow, and for that snow to stick around into late spring to work the way they need it to for today’s setup of reservoirs.

they say that when it falls as rain, it goes to waste somehow, by running off or evaporating. That’s it I think. The evaporation. 

The slower melt likely spread out the precipitation over time leading to better conditions for plant and animal life overall.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

“Snow every winter moving forward” is not a fact, by definition. It is a speculative and a fairly damn safe one for sure, based on historical data, but what happens 25,50,100, 500 winters from now….you seem to know. Interesting.

Bro, in our lifetimes it’ll still be snowing here. What it does 500 years from now who really gives a flying crap.  It won’t matter to any body alive now, or anybody to be born for another 400 years.
 

And Nobody has any real answers to any of this. But it will snow every winter from now through the end of our years here. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

For water resources there It’s all about how it’s stored and delivered. 
 

Im not as good at explaining it as they are but in essence not really, somehow they need the precip to fall as snow, and for that snow to stick around into late spring to work the way they need it to for today’s setup of reservoirs.

they say that when it falls as rain, it goes to waste somehow, by running off or evaporating. That’s it I think. The evaporation. 

To me that sounds like an engineering problem… Mother Nature is giving the water either way, snow or rain.  We are comfortable humans, maybe we need to adapt a bit.  But if the water falls from the sky, no matter what form, that’s on us for not utilizing it properly.

[IowaStorm05]

Places like northern New England are probably going to see increases in annual snowfall from global warming providing setups for more moisture and blockbuster storms.

but Southern New England? I think that after perhaps a transitional period with occasional massive blockbuster snowstorms, we’re simply going to get rain. no way are annual snowfalls here as big as they were in the last century region-wide. I don’t have proof on hand, but already there are some years in westerly Rhode Island where it barely snows at all. What does it do? It rains! It’s not Iowa. There isn’t gads of polar air always tunneling through the region. 
 

unstable polar air masses should make things interesting for a good while but I doubt that’s going to win out forever

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the next two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

I'm over 50 and we have been getting abnormally warm temps in winter since I was a kid.   It just happens, belly to belly cold and snow is extremely rare in SNE.   I don't deny climate change but crappy winters are poor evidence.   Anomalous rainfall on the other hand has definitely seemed more common recently than when I was a kid.

[Henry's Weather]

wonder what the litetature is on increasing angular momentum due to temp increase. Seems logical enough to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure global warming will be talked about over the next two weeks,  but the truth is....even Governor Bradford in 1630 would have been in a Speedo with Chief Massasoit given this -PNA.

That pattern does not suprise me in the least, I just didn't expect it in December. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

wonder what the litetature is on increasing angular momentum due to temp increase. Seems logical enough to me.

The overall temp gradient between mid latitudes and Arctic is decreasing which in theory would lead to slower westerly momentum.

[WxWatcher007]

Soooo…how much for Hartford?