Lava Rock Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: much better than me. This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gotchya. Thanks. Probably a gradient look that favors NoP. We need a better look down here though. Agree. We'll see what happens...not worth sweating that range, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: November wasn't mild...I'm not sure what you are talking about. C'mon that is 1 month. September and October are months that lead into the winter season. One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Maybe 12z throws us a bone More like bone you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot Models have gotten better as a whole. It’s just that now everyone has access to pretty graphics of snow 5+ days out. When 50 miles means flurries or a foot, that’s totally in the margin of error at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The first few inches of the season are always special...or hell the first storm really. Also knowing what lies ahead with the pattern moving forward we need to capitalize on any chance (no matter how minor) we can get 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Is that what she said? Good morning W W and. R A I. My declining days would be lost without the members of the forum and … yup … remembering back, that’s what she said. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot I don't know if it's really a case of models sucking. These past few winters we have seen patterns become established which have tended to be progressive in nature which usually is associated with lots of moving parts (i.e. shortwave energy). When you have situations where there are so many pieces of energy and an infinite amount of interactions you get chaos from hell. This is why when looking just at SLP and sfc charts you get tons of different solutions not only from model-to-model but mode run-to-model run...it's a product of the infinite amount of solutions which exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: much better than me. This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. Models shoul not go out past 120 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: C'mon that is 1 month. September and October are months that lead into the winter season. One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record. If anything, there is actually an inverse correlation for the winter with Sept/Oct. The warmest Sept/Oct tend to have colder/snowier winters. You don't want November warm though (which it wasn't this year). Just checking Boston really quick....their top 5 warmest Sep/Oct combos coming into this year was 2017, 1971, 2007, 1947, and 1961 (with 1983 close behind). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Models should go out past 120 hours The problem is there are too many ridiculous products out there. Past 120-hours...hell maybe even 96 you only need upper-level charts and some SLP progs. No QPF or snow maps or whatever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't know if it's really a case of models sucking. These past few winters we have seen patterns become established which have tended to be progressive in nature which usually is associated with lots of moving parts (i.e. shortwave energy). When you have situations where there are so many pieces of energy and an infinite amount of interactions you get chaos from hell. This is why when looking just at SLP and sfc charts you get tons of different solutions not only from model-to-model but mode run-to-model run...it's a product of the infinite amount of solutions which exist. makes sense, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The problem is there are too many ridiculous products out there. Past 120-hours...hell maybe even 96 you only need upper-level charts and some SLP progs. No QPF or snow maps or whatever Agree These models keep getting upgraded which are making them worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: C'mon that is 1 month. September and October are months that lead into the winter season. One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record. I get that it was a mild fall, but its tough for me to connect the fall pattern to the early winter pattern when the month immediately preceding the change of seasons was pretty different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Models have gotten better as a whole. It’s just that now everyone has access to pretty graphics of snow 5+ days out. When 50 miles means flurries or a foot, that’s totally in the margin of error at that time. Yeah this is really it....years ago you only had basic QPF maps and had to use experience to interpret snowfall based on thicknesses/mid-level temps, etc.....now you have a trillion weenie snow maps (many of which are awful...in both directions) that every person has access to and it can muddy the discourse quite a bit....esp beyond D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If anything, there is actually an inverse correlation for the winter with Sept/Oct. The warmest Sept/Oct tend to have colder/snowier winters. You don't want November warm though (which it wasn't this year). Just checking Boston really quick....their top 5 warmest Sep/Oct combos coming into this year was 2017, 1971, 2007, 1947, and 1961 (with 1983 close behind). Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The problem is there are too many ridiculous products out there. Past 120-hours...hell maybe even 96 you only need upper-level charts and some SLP progs. No QPF or snow maps or whatever are you telling me my accuweather 90 day forecast won't verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: are you telling me my accuweather 90 day forecast won't verify unless that period happens to be right around climo...sadly, probably not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I'll take my inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: unless that period happens to be right around climo...sadly, probably not lol atleast having no snow or ice has helped the alligator strive in the westfield river by The Bige in west springfield saw on wwlp it was spotted again the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, ineedsnow said: lol atleast having no snow or ice has helped the alligator strive in the westfield river by The Bige in west springfield saw on wwlp it was spotted again the other day wtf?????? how did an alligator get there? great now we have to deal with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: wtf?????? how did an alligator get there? great now we have to deal with those. They think it was someones pet.. its been in the river for months now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Cmc did the best Hey maybe that will be the model of choice this winter since it was just upgraded . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot Perhaps an attempt should be made to let a new model learn how to forecast on it's own. The chess super computer Alpha Zero learned to play extremely high level chess by playing thousands upon thousands of games of chess against itself. The computer has never "seen" a game played by humans or other computers. The computer"learned" by trial and error. I am far from a computer expert although I did stay at a Holiday Day Inn Express last night but I wonder if a similar development can be taken to develop a new and much better weather model. From the Wiki article AlphaZero was trained solely via "self-play" using 5,000 first-generation TPUs to generate the games and 64 second-generation TPUs to train the neural networks, all in parallel, with no access to opening books or endgame tables. After four hours of training, DeepMind estimated AlphaZero was playing chess at a higher Elo rating than Stockfish 8; after nine hours of training, the algorithm defeated Stockfish 8 in a time-controlled 100-game tournament (28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws).[1][2][3] The trained algorithm played on a single machine with four TPUs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: They think it was someones pet.. its been in the river for months now how do you have an alligator as a pet? where did they keep it...the bathtub? do they eat spiders? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get that it was a mild fall, but its tough for me to connect the fall pattern to the early winter pattern when the month immediately preceding the change of seasons was pretty different. Time will tell.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: lol atleast having no snow or ice has helped the alligator strive in the westfield river by The Bige in west springfield saw on wwlp it was spotted again the other day How big is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: how do you have an alligator as a pet? where did they keep it...the bathtub? do they eat spiders? Yes, And people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: how do you have an alligator as a pet? where did they keep it...the bathtub? do they eat spiders? no idea If they do ill bet you go catch it lm guessing no though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just now, DavisStraight said: How big is it? they say 18 to 48 inches but looks bigger in the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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