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Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:05 PM, weatherwiz said:

much better than me. 

This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. 

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why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot

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weathafella
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Hi everyone!  Thanks so much for the multitude of good wishes-it means a lot and touches my heart!  We were watching a movie around 12:30AM when out of nowhere I got lightheaded and experienced severe

weathafella
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I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp…

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

My son was up at 6am and made me come outside in the snow with him.....what a weenie.    

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:17 PM, Lava Rock said:

why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot

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Models have gotten better as a whole. It’s just that now everyone has access to pretty graphics of snow 5+ days out. When 50 miles means flurries or a foot, that’s totally in the margin of error at that time. 

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:06 PM, weatherwiz said:

The first few inches of the season are always special...or hell the first storm really. Also knowing what lies ahead with the pattern moving forward we need to capitalize on any chance (no matter how minor) we can get

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  On 12/7/2021 at 1:14 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Is that what she said? 

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Good morning W W and. R A I. My declining days would be lost without the members of the forum and  … yup … remembering back, that’s what she said. As always …..

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:17 PM, Lava Rock said:

why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot

Expand  

I don't know if it's really a case of models sucking. These past few winters we have seen patterns become established which have tended to be progressive in nature which usually is associated with lots of moving parts (i.e. shortwave energy). When you have situations where there are so many pieces of energy and an infinite amount of interactions you get chaos from hell. This is why when looking just at SLP and sfc charts you get tons of different solutions not only from model-to-model but mode run-to-model run...it's a product of the infinite amount of solutions which exist. 

 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:05 PM, weatherwiz said:

much better than me. 

This is just frustrating b/c you watch the evolution of this from the upper-levels down to the surface and it's close to being a big hit. I' just so sick of this crap though these past few winters. It's almost not even worth monitoring or getting excited for any chance unless you're within 72-hours...and even then you probably get disappointed. 

Expand  

Models shoul not go out past 120 hours

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:22 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

C'mon that is 1 month.  September and October are months that lead into the winter season.  One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record. 

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If anything, there is actually an inverse correlation for the winter with Sept/Oct. The warmest Sept/Oct tend to have colder/snowier winters. You don't want November warm though (which it wasn't this year).

 

Just checking Boston really quick....their top 5 warmest Sep/Oct combos coming into this year was 2017, 1971, 2007, 1947, and 1961 (with 1983 close behind).

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:27 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if it's really a case of models sucking. These past few winters we have seen patterns become established which have tended to be progressive in nature which usually is associated with lots of moving parts (i.e. shortwave energy). When you have situations where there are so many pieces of energy and an infinite amount of interactions you get chaos from hell. This is why when looking just at SLP and sfc charts you get tons of different solutions not only from model-to-model but mode run-to-model run...it's a product of the infinite amount of solutions which exist. 

 

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makes sense, thanks.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:22 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

C'mon that is 1 month.  September and October are months that lead into the winter season.  One of the warmest falls if not the warmest fall on record. 

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I get that it was a mild fall, but its tough for me to connect the fall pattern to the early winter pattern when the month immediately preceding the change of seasons was pretty different.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

Models have gotten better as a whole. It’s just that now everyone has access to pretty graphics of snow 5+ days out. When 50 miles means flurries or a foot, that’s totally in the margin of error at that time. 

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Yeah this is really it....years ago you only had basic QPF maps and had to use experience to interpret snowfall based on thicknesses/mid-level temps, etc.....now you have a trillion weenie snow maps (many of which are awful...in both directions) that every person has access to and it can muddy the discourse quite a bit....esp beyond D5.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:28 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If anything, there is actually an inverse correlation for the winter with Sept/Oct. The warmest Sept/Oct tend to have colder/snowier winters. You don't want November warm though (which it wasn't this year).

 

Just checking Boston really quick....their top 5 warmest Sep/Oct combos coming into this year was 2017, 1971, 2007, 1947, and 1961 (with 1983 close behind).

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Exactly...Novie has a slight positive correlation to winter, I believe...so his post, aside from correctly characterizing the fall as one of the mildest on record, doesn't make much sense.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:41 PM, ineedsnow said:

lol atleast having no snow or ice has helped the alligator strive in the westfield river by The Bige in west springfield   saw on wwlp it was spotted again the other day :lol:

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wtf?????? how did an alligator get there? great now we have to deal with those. 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
  On 12/7/2021 at 1:17 PM, Lava Rock said:

why do the models suck so bad? I've asked every winter over the last few years why it seems anything more than 3 days out can go from norester, to cutter, to OTS. And like you said, even within 3 days, it can be a crapshoot

Expand  

Perhaps an attempt should  be made to let a new  model learn how to forecast on it's own.  The chess super computer Alpha Zero learned to play extremely high level chess by playing thousands upon thousands of games of chess  against itself. The computer has never "seen" a game played by humans or other computers.  The computer"learned" by trial and error.  I am far from a computer expert although I did stay at a Holiday Day Inn Express last night but I wonder if a similar development can  be taken to develop a new and much better weather model.

From the Wiki article

 AlphaZero was trained solely via "self-play" using 5,000 first-generation TPUs to generate the games and 64 second-generation TPUs to train the neural networks, all in parallel, with no access to opening books or endgame tables. After four hours of training, DeepMind estimated AlphaZero was playing chess at a higher Elo rating than Stockfish 8; after nine hours of training, the algorithm defeated Stockfish 8 in a time-controlled 100-game tournament (28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws).[1][2][3] The trained algorithm played on a single machine with four TPUs.

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