Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Nice low end warning event on the NAM for SE Mass 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would prefer it not be there, I don't care where it ends up. Those are the kiss of death for a nice event.

I would too, We just need the northern stream to keep digging SE to get that surface low back further west, That's one of the keys and for it to stay amped up as well, Heights out ahead were somewhat better too so a combo of all of it.

[Cold Miser]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

NAM a solid 1 to 3.

I'd take that then some nice warm air for mid month.

...Because warm December weather always gets people in the holiday spirit.  Brown ground, mild temps, and boring weather.  Such a great thing to look forward to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I would too, We just need the northern stream to keep digging SE to get that surface low back further west, That's one of the keys and for it to stay amped up as well, Heights out ahead were somewhat better too so a combo of all of it.

That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

...Because warm December weather always gets people in the holiday spirit.  Brown ground, mild temps, and boring weather.  Such a great thing to look forward to.

At least the timing is such that we should be able to look ahead to the change during the holiday GTG.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That, to me, is an artifact of the modeling being ambivalent in relation to whether or not to commit more N stream energy...I mean, theoretically it could be real, but it will probably either evolve into a real event or fade away.

It try's too inject more northern stream energy, But you don't get it to capture and close off until its well north of here, That's why i want to see it keep digging.

[Spanks45]

RGEM looks marginally better.....general 1-2 for most of SNE

[ineedsnow]

Icon is further south with the coastal but gets more snow in here

[NorEastermass128]

28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nice low end warning event on the NAM for SE Mass 

Are we holding off on punting it to the moon?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Are we holding off on punting it to the moon?

We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM

It's not only the Nam

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3".

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We punt… I’m not hinging anything on the NAM

When the NAM consistently shows the same idea beyond 48 it has a tendency to be onto something.  I usually discount the NAM when it makes wild run to run shifts but since the 18Z run yesterday it has not wavered a whole lot.

[NorEastermass128]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3".

First flakes/snow for me. I’ll take that pre-12/20. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The safest call right now is probably a general 1-3".

Last night's 00z GGEM is the only current model run that didn't have at least an inch or two....and it's probably going to cave at 12z given what he RGEM has done since 00z.

It's getting fairly likely we see some accumulating snows over a good chunk of SNE. Whether that's an inch or two or something more prolific remains to be seen.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Need to get rid of that IVT look that keeps popping up every run up here, So keep backing the slp in.

No thanks. Get that IVT up here.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

No thanks. Get that IVT up here.

Good luck.

[Hazey]

Solid warning event here if guidance holds with death band tantalizing close. Another tick or two west and double digits might be attainable. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good luck.

I prefer the higher upside with the IVT vs SNE sloppy seconds.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS is meh

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I prefer the higher upside with the IVT or get nothing vs SNE sloppy seconds.

Interesting.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS trough was deeper but it looked slightly more progressive so it was kind of a wash with 06z for sensible wx impact. PRecip was maybe a little more widespread than 06z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs isn’t going to get it done

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS trough was deeper but it looked slightly more progressive so it was kind of a wash with 06z for sensible wx impact. PRecip was maybe a little more widespread than 06z.

do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold?

No idea, i don't use those maps.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

do you have any idea why the weather.cod maps are so bullish on snow for tonight on the GFS and GEFS? do they run cold?

Must be a BS algorithm.

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Interesting.

Good luck.

Ribbing aside, the 3k NAM gets a little of both into SW ME. You can see the sfc convergence zone and the reflectivities blow up along it amid the larger, weaker synoptic lift.

[tamarack]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good luck.

Franklin County and IVTs - things that never meet.  The 0.6" from today's warm rain may be more snow than falls here Wednesday.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Franklin County and IVTs - things that never meet.  The 0.6" from today's warm rain may be more snow than falls here Wednesday.

Right now, I don't expect much if any unless this keeps ticking west on upcoming runs, Its rare for the IVT here as well, Certainly not going to rely on it to unfold.