WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Perhaps not... But nah - there are flows conducive to better predictive skill - present era is/was definitely not one of those examples. I’ve seen plenty of conducive flows where the modeling loses storms also. D5 is a crapshoot at best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: It's pretty much a dartboard scenario. All options on the table. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Notice Scoots not posting . That Says everything Will had pretty much bailed too. You know it’s time to fold em when the big players exit stage right 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 Maybe the last chance of the year, or at least until post-Christmas. Rough one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ve seen plenty of conducive flows where the modeling loses storms also. D5 is a crapshoot at best. You could be angry ... or, you can learn from this - up to you... There are flow regimes where you can have reasonable confidence at D5 ... this was not one of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Will had pretty much bailed too. You know it’s time to fold em when the big players exit stage right Listen, both those guys feel it’s gonna bump north. You’ll see em both return when that starts to happen, or it goes to Bermuda completely. if ya get a couple inches it’s a win. It’s Sunday for god sakes. This is a Wednesday deal if it happens? You’re as fickle as the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You could be angry ... or, you can learn from this - up to you... There are flow regimes where you can have reasonable confidence at D5 ... this was not one of those. I guess a good question when learning from this is why was the GFS so bad while the rest did "better". Still3 days out so I guess the GFS could end up correct, but that ship has at least sailed for the time being.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You could be angry ... or, you can learn from this - up to you... There are flow regimes where you can have reasonable confidence at D5 ... this was not one of those. John..nobody is angry. And you’re not the end all be all on here either. You can think what you want professor, but day 5 is tenuous at best. Sure there are some times where a model latches on to something at 5 days out and takes it home. But I haven’t seen that happen in quite some time. But Thanks for the tip, typhoon tip. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 It is Sunday morning at 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I guess a good question when learning from this is why was the GFS so bad while the rest did "better". Still3 days out so I guess the GFS could end up correct, but that ship has at least sailed for the time being.... Too early to know which modeling did better or not imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Too early to know which modeling did better or not imo. A lot of modelologists around these parts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Notice Scoots not posting . That Says everything Maybe spending time with his family, nice day today, good weather to do things around the house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The Euro last week had next weeks storm as a cutter and then a coastal so the Euro didn't get it right either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: A lot of modelologists around these parts. Absolutely. Holy smokes this place is a dumpster fire. If we get a couple inches that’s great. If we don’t..that’s fine with me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The Euro last week had next weeks storm as a cutter and then a coastal so the Euro didn't get it right either. Correct..it hasn’t been anything to write home about either. It ain’t what it used to be, and hasn’t been for a few years now. But this isn’t figured out yet….so I’d hold off on how any one model did, or didn’t do at this juncture. That’s the only take home currently imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Maybe spending time with his family, nice day today, good weather to do things around the house. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Maybe spending time with his family, nice day today, good weather to do things around the house. She gone and he gone?? Coincidence? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Dryslot watching SNE crash on this one system like NNE the whole winter last year. Suck it up, cupcakes. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Listen, both those guys feel it’s gonna bump north. You’ll see em both return when that starts to happen, or it goes to Bermuda completely. if ya get a couple inches it’s a win. It’s Sunday for god sakes. This is a Wednesday deal if it happens? You’re as fickle as the wind. They felt it would bump north like 2 days ago… that’s a long time ago. I’m not fickle… I change based on modeling. Maybe we score a couple inches… but there is a lot of time left for this to slip into nothing… as is, really only 1 model is showing accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes. At Logan getting ready to go to Dallas. I’ll try to send the is back north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: They felt it would bump north like 2 days ago… that’s a long time ago. I’m not fickle… I change based on modeling. Maybe we score a couple inches… but there is a lot of time left for this to slip into nothing… as is, really only 1 model is showing accumulation Well modeling goes one way then another all the time. That’s Modelology Blizz. And sure there’s a lot of time left…for it to go either way. But swing with each model run if that floats your boat. If by tomorrow night it’s still out by Bermuda, then I’ll certainly agree that this is gone. And I’ll be totally fine either way..it’s 12/5 after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 You’ll want to see some changes by 00z tonight I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Still too early to bail on this one. But we’re definitely going to need to see a shift by 00z tonight when some of the key energy comes onshore. Synoptically there’s plenty of room to trend north...the trough axis isnpretty far west when this thing first gets going. It just needs to overcome the fast flow and semi-flattish western ridge. But we do have a propensity for SE ridging and there’s no blocking so both of those could help try and send it north. I do love the psychoanalysis on here. “Will and Scooter stopped posting”....meanwhile he’s at the airport and I’m outside doing final leaf cleanup. 3 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: John..nobody is angry. And you’re not the end all be all on here either. You can think what you want professor, but day 5 is tenuous at best. Sure there are some times where a model latches on to something at 5 days out and takes it home. But I haven’t seen that happen in quite some time. But Thanks for the tip, typhoon tip. The fact you felt it necessary to personalize anything (bold) at all evinces you are... Stop being a teenager and start growing - 2ndly, I am educated formally in this discipline of Meteorology - you are not. Sorry - deal with it. You are incorrect in your mentality regarding day 5... There are numbers that prove this empirically. If this comes back in the next few runs, all it does is underscore the natively bad deterministic skills of models in this type of flow regime. The regimes provide different skill - that is fact. deal with it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: At Logan getting ready to go to Dallas. I’ll try to send the is back north. chemtrails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The fact you felt it necessary to personalize anything (bold) at all evinces you are... Stop being a teenager and start growing - 2ndly, I am educated formally in this discipline of Meteorology - you are not. Sorry - deal with it. You are incorrect in your mentality regarding day 5... There are numbers that prove this empirically. If this comes back in the next few runs, all it does is underscore the natively bad deterministic skills of models in this type of flow regime. The regimes provide different skill - that is fact. deal with it. Cosgrove… that you?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Cosgrove… that you?? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Too early to know which modeling did better or not imo. I agree totally, I have seen way too many of these storms dismissed in the mid range only to come back in the short term. Especially recently for what ever reason that might be.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The fact you felt it necessary to personalize anything (bold) at all evinces you are... Stop being a teenager and start growing - 2ndly, I am educated formally in this discipline of Meteorology - you are not. Sorry - deal with it. You are incorrect in your mentality regarding day 5... There are numbers that prove this empirically. If this comes back in the next few runs, all it does is underscore the natively bad deterministic skills of models in this type of flow regime. The regimes provide different skill - that is fact. deal with it. Your condescending attitude is a lot to handle. You can think what you want. The flow is fast/tough I certainly give you that. But the modeling loses crap in buckled flows all the time too, especially out at day 5. So that’s my point and stance. We’ll leave at at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The fact you felt it necessary to personalize anything (bold) at all evinces you are... Stop being a teenager and start growing - 2ndly, I am educated formally in this discipline of Meteorology - you are not. Sorry - deal with it. You are incorrect in your mentality regarding day 5... There are numbers that prove this empirically. If this comes back in the next few runs, all it does is underscore the natively bad deterministic skills of models in this type of flow regime. The regimes provide different skill - that is fact. deal with it. He will beat you up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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