IowaStorm05 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Responding to Tip, I would go with the models coming a lot closer today and then a slow trend north and west. That’s just based on how Will and Scott described this set up a couple of days ago and the likelihood that this ends up coming north. This feels like one of those situations where you do get a trend back to the north in the end. Eventually 3 -6+For many Closer? Sure, within the realm of possibilities. "A lot" - mm... The gist of 'finding something of a compromise' between the diametric 00z operational versions is paramount for me. The non GFS versions were a lot SE of the GFS, so having non-GFSers coming NW would be by definition closer, either way. Having said that, I don't see any Meteorological reason why they will come "a lot" - lol... This system is squeezing up through a couple of elephant assess: one being the vestigial Canadian PV ...the other is the a semi-permanent height surplus in the S. That doesn't offer a lot of correction wiggle room. Put it this way... the GFS needs to move SE a smaller amount to cause this to miss a lot.. .but the other runs have to move quite a bit to even get half way, and do so between those to larger synoptic aspects. It's fun to play the model fight tho - give you that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 From BOX AFD Wednesday... It appears increasingly likely that at least part of southern New England could see its first widespread accumulating snow of the season. The dynamics are impressive. The 00z GFS shows a decent storm intensifying close to the 70W/40N benchmark with deformation band forming across the CWA. Omega within the favorable Dendritic Growth Zone of -12 to -18C looks to be in the 15-20 unit range, along with negative 700-500mb equivalent potential vorticity and good 700mb frontogenesis should help set up a decent mesoscale band sometime Wednesday afternoon into evening. The question will be whether it is cold enough for 1 inch per hour snowfall rate to materialize and how much snow can accumulate before potential mixing or changeover to rain especially along the Boston- Providence corridor. Ensemble model guidance (GFS, EC and GEM) have continued to advertize decent probability of 24 hour 3-plus inches snowfall, with consensus of at least 40-50 percent for Wednesday into Wednesday night across interior MA and CT, using uniform 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. Dependent on how impressive the cold air injection is, this ratio could potentially be a little higher. In fact, the GFS shows SLR of around 14 to 16:1. While it is still too premature to go into possible snowfall accumulation, would like to see greater signal for formation of deformation band across the CWA especially when the Convection- Allowing Models come into range by Sunday night/Monday morning. Given it is a fast-moving system, snowfall rates will likely have to approach or exceed an inch per hour for Warning criteria snowfall (6 inches averaged over a forecast zone in a 12 hour period). There is above average uncertainty with the Boston-Providence corridor because either it could be a mostly rain event or it could be the sweet spot for significant snowfall accumulation if the colder air holds its ground and the deformation band sets up in the vicinity. So plenty for snow lovers to ponder over and continually monitoring over the next couple of days. For now, really don`t have the confidence to come up with a snowfall map until the Hi-res ensemble guidance (HREF) comes into range but we have time to fine-tune the specifics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Best wishes to jerry. Hope everything is okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: A light event is still a possibility. Thank you for the update on Jerry, glad he’s at least in the right place under medical care/observation. I’m not a super religious person, but I prayed to the almighty last night to take care and watch over him. Jerry is a great guy. Until the Nam shows something of consequence, I will assume the GFS is broken...LoL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: From BOX AFD The question will be whether it is cold enough for 1 inch per hour snowfall rate to materialize and how much snow can accumulate before potential mixing or changeover to rain especially along the Boston- Providence corridor. Sounds like they don't buy the trend south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 12zNAM is a scraper. A little more amped than 06z but not a big move. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I hope you feel good soon Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12zNAM is a scraper. A little more amped than 06z but not a big move. Fat lady is definitely warming up on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Could it end up a south of pike special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Could it end up a south of pike special? I think it could end up as anything at this point. I do think we muster a couple inches inland. Nothing wrong with that if that’s how it pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Love ya @weathafella 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just seeing something going on with Jerry, hope you're well Jerry we need you back here asap, it's wintertime after all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 06 Euro did inch North. Good sign. Talked to Jerry. Waiting on more tests. Rough night for him. Please keep him in your thoughts Thanks for the update.Your weather family is concerned and thinking about you, Jerry. Hope it was just a scare and you’re back home soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Closer? Sure, within the realm of possibilities. "A lot" - mm... The gist of 'finding something of a compromise' between the diametric 00z operational versions is paramount for me. The non GFS versions were a lot SE of the GFS, so having non-GFSers coming NW would be by definition closer, either way. Having said that, I don't see any Meteorological reason why they will come "a lot" - lol... This system is squeezing up through a couple of elephant assess: one being the vestigial Canadian PV ...the other is the a semi-permanent height surplus in the S. That doesn't offer a lot of correction wiggle room. Put it this way... the GFS needs to move SE a smaller amount to cause this to miss a lot.. .but the other runs have to move quite a bit to even get half way, and do so between those to larger synoptic aspects. It's fun to play the model fight tho - give you that. My use of “a lot” was definitely an unintended overstatement. What I think is that the models will come a lot closer at 12Z and 18Z today and then overnight and tomorrow we’ll start to see a slow trend toward something that’s more north and west and may be a little more impressive. I’ve been watching my weather underground accumulation protection from Wednesday be somewhere around 8 inches a couple days ago and slowly drop to about 2 1/2 inches as of this morning. I expect that to go back up in the end maybe around 5 inches inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 hours ago, weathafella said: I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp… Get well soon, I hope everything is ok with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Gfs is weaker again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is weaker again The flow is too fast, we need blocking to slow it down. Just not going to get a strong storm in this pattern, the gfs foot+ of snow solution was always a low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Gfs folding like a cheap suit… laughably south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What a horrible model the gfs is Heck the Euro has also been bad 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1-3 for a lot of the area. It will look December-y for a day or two in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Mood snow..I’ll take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a horrible model the gfs is Heck the Euro has also been bad Close enough to keep an eye on it and plenty of time for the shift north right? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Not our winter 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 You guys give up to easily, still time for a good shift, it's only Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, DavisStraight said: You guys give up to easily, still time for a good shift, it's only Sunday. Unfortunately a good shift could also remove most of SNE from seeing anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What happened to the north shift that was called for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What happened to the north shift that was called for? Flow too progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not our winter 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not our winter 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a horrible model the gfs is Heck the Euro has also been bad There’s a reason why I never use the gfs for my forecasts. The Euro/Navy/Canadian blend never really was on board for this one. Gfs was on its own, so I’m not surprised it was wrong. Right now the pattern sucks, hopefully things change with the MJO going into phase 7 and 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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