Torch Tiger Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 This will likely be the first "significant" winter event of the winter for many in the NE forum. Let's go! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Hoping for good trends at 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Wow gfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Wow gfs I pray for me and you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I pray for me and you lol Count me in! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 It actually bombs the low 20 mb in 12 hours as it goes over the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Early Season Winter Storm Possible Mid Week Early Season Winter Storm Possible Mid Week The Situation: There appears to be a take two on the early winter "lion" that failed to materialize last week. Clearly not all of the potential for mischief in the atmosphere is realized, otherwise the plant earth would be nearly inhabitable and only individuals such as your's truly would rejoice. However, there appears to be yet another, higher percentage opportunity for winter to fire the first significant shot across the bow of southern New England next week, as illustrated by the mass convergence evident in the major teleconnections of the both the pacific: And the arctic: While the overall pattern across the hemisphere is relatively hostile both with respect to the pacific and polar domains, the shape and orientation of the polar vortex is such that it allows periodic intrusions of polar air into the our sector of the western hemisphere. One such episode will occur on the heels of a very mild and blustery day on Monday. It is this system that will bring early week rainfall and scattered wind damage before propelling a strong cold front through the region overnight on Monday into early Tuesday morning. It is this polar airmass that will set the stage for what is likely to be region's first significant and widespread snowfall of the 2021-2022 winter season on Wednesday. The initial upper air shortwave over the Saint Lawrence river valley will initially induce a southwest flow aloft that will cause precipitation to break out during the day on Wednesday. However, as the system encounters the relatively stout antecedent polar airmass in place it will begin to transfer the energy to the coast. Since there is no high latitude blocking or west coast ridging in place to provide the impetus for this evolution to transpire as such, it is subject to the nuances of timing. Thus far, it appears as though the system will arrive while the antecedent airmass provides enough resistance to produce a winter storm, however, there is still about a day or so for that to change. Just how quickly said resistance induces a transfer of energy to the coast in order to end the southwest flow aloft will determine how much of the snowfall transitions to rain, sleet, ice and how much precipitation falls. More diffuse primary energy and more pervasive antecedent polar air will promote a faster transfer of energy and heavier snowfall totals across the region. However, if polar air provides less resistance and the primary energy persists for a longer duration, than the protracted southwest flow aloft will ultimately advect milder, and drier air into the region ensuring nothing more than a modest to moderate snowfall across the entirety of the region. Preliminary Anticipated Storm Evolution: The warm front in association with the first system driving far to the northwest should advance through the region on Monday warming, followed by rainfall and very gusty southwest winds with some sporadic damage and power outages. The region will spend Monday in the warm sector before the trailing cold front begins to advect colder air into the region overnight on Monday. The follow up disturbance will approach the area and induce an initial southwest flow aloft, which collide with the antecedent polar air mass in place to cause snow to break out from southwest to northeast on Wednesday morning. Precisely just how long the primary parent energy remains prominent will determine how extensive the period of southwesterly flow will last. It is likely that precipitation will mix with/change to sleet and rain inside of route 128 and near and to the south of the Mass pike. The Wednesday morning commute should be especially problematic across SW New England. However, the Wednesday evening commute should be a messy across the region, especially north and perhaps across northern Connecticut, as a significant period of glaze is possible. While some freezing rain is also possible outside of I 495 and south of the Mass pike, it should be most prevalent across the northern section of Connecticut, where the southwest flow aloft is likely to persist the longest and is able to thin the layer cold sufficiently in the mid levels of the atmosphere. Regardless of what exactly transpires, the system looks to exit the area early Thursday. First Call: The primary question to ponder over the weekend and into early next week is just how fast that coastal energy transfers and consolidates off of the coast. The 12z GFS is very aggressive in closing off the coastal low in the mid levels late Wednesday night. H85: H700: This has important implications on the forecast because it shifts winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere from south and southwesterly: to more easterly, which limits precipitation type issues both in duration and extent by and duration. This also acts to protract the period of accumulating snowfall overnight Wednesday into early Thursday, especially across the northern and eastern third of the region. This cold have significant implications on the Thursday morning commute. Hopefully there will be more a consensus with respect to the evolution of coastal cyclogenesis over the next day or two, but here is the current best estimate. Final Call be issued on Tuesday- 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18z gfs slays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18z GEFS does have more meh members now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 hours ago, ineedsnow said: 18z GEFS does have more meh members now though I honestly thought the 18z version was a little bit of a shirk job for route 2 corridor and up. It was snowier ptype for more people but it was also less QPF bombing low or not; it was strengthening low but it was also tracking it slightly south of the previous tracks which were better for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Ah what the hell, somebody will appreciate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon is a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Icon says, what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 GFS not backing down. Thought it would move east. All other guidance seems to be trending more offshore. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Icon is a miss 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon says, what storm? Yeah, And? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Unc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Unc That is pretty realistic...like GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Unc Ant just made a mess in the drivers seat of the squad car... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Ant just made a mess in the drivers seat of the squad car... IDK what to believe but if Euro jumps then we may be back to a SWFE by game time lol. Seriously good banana N of Maine though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is pretty realistic...like GEFS Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ant just made a mess in the drivers seat of the squad car... I'm off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Are we posting in here now? Jerry, Ant, Ray you guys staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Are we posting in here now? Jerry, Ant, Ray you guys staying up for the Euro? I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp… 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m heading to the hospital-some concerning symptoms so I doubt I’ll do pbp… Ahh dam Jerry. So hope everything is ok. All the best to you. Dam I feel bad hearing this. Sending Thoughts and prayers to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Sorry to hear it. Hope you feel better soon @weathafella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Hope everything is okay and you get better quickly @weathafella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Euro is pretty much garbage for all of us from the MA up to NNE tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Euro is pretty much garbage for all of us from the MA up to NNE tonight Thanks for the update. We’ll either it’s gonna end up leading the way here…or it goes down in flames and we perhaps crown a new king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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