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OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021


wdrag
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I can never tell where some members are located, but thanks for the reports.

 

Wantage NJ still snowing with 1/4" covering everything at 655PM and 30/28. Calm wind.  SB around 515PM.  Pavement wet. 

 

My perspective... while NYC probably does not see snow accumulations, it may see a rain snow mix by 830PM.  CT is probably going to see widespread 0.5-1.5" snowfall by the time this ends, heaviest in high terrain, near or above 1000 ft where slippery spots can be expected on all untreated surfaces. 

The reason there are 9 pages on a low (not no impact) event (wet roads, reduced visibility briefly to 1 mile or less, at night) is that there hasn't been much noteworthy so far this season and probably won't be til at least the 21st.  Let's accept what we get and we'll move on tomorrow. I'll try to get a CoCoRaHs snowfall summary posted tomorrow at 5P (after work).

As far as modeling goes: NAM OK,  3KNAM far too conservative.  HPC HREF decent.  The best since yesterday has been the HRRR and HRRRX. RGEM not too far behind.  GFS: not good.  First days in advance way too amped, then too suppressed recently.  One event, but a little concern for GFS. 

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53 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I can never tell where some members are located, but thanks for the reports.

 

If you're using a phone, click on the person's name and scroll down a bit. 

 

 

Screenshot_20211208-201036_Gallery.thumb.jpg.91ec33380b742819ba69583c7fc10f90.jpg

 

Screenshot_20211208-201053_Gallery.thumb.jpg.05fa75c215f89e3274ce70f7dd48ed5b.jpg

 

If you're using your PC it should be visible without clicking on their name.   

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Many have their location under the member ..  I'll hunt if needed but wish it was all easy. Thanks for tip.  

 

Wantage NJ 0.4" final (heaviest of the season so far, all in 3 hrs)..still a few flurries but essentially done.  Everything covered except pave wet. 29.3F.  Dewpoint still 28 so maybe we get one more band (BGM band on radar now at 820PM??) before it's all done and dry air advection ends the potential. 

 

METAR: KNYC [New York/Central Par]

METAR: KNYC 090104Z AUTO 30005KT 6SM -RA BR BKN014 OVC022 02/00 A2991 RMK AO2 SNB0058E02 P0001 T00220000

Note the 4 min of snow in the NYC obs above. 

 

Thanks all for your obs.-pix. I'm probably done for the night. 

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