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OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021


wdrag
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2 hours ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

The radar is starting to look better per hour to our west, Also looks like the low might not be as far east as the models have it. Almost every model has barely any snow for nyc. So it's gonna be interesting to see how much actually does fall .

With above freezing temps and light snow would not expect much. 

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So,  the 00z/8 EC-09z/8 HRRR in particular are indicating that the negative tilt trough will light up with some light precipitation across our area, at times late this morning, ending early tonight. Least chance for seeing any whitening of the ground is NJ (I80 south) and most of LI where surface temps will probably cause melting.

Follow the models/obs/radar developments and your own takes for this developing FGEN related precip, supported by the oncoming sharpening negative tilt trough that may develop an inverted trough back from the offshore low pressure to LI.

Whatever occurs, it's all done by around midnight.

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

So,  the 00z/8 EC-09z/8 HRRR in particular are indicating that the negative tilt trough will light up with some light precipitation across our area, at times late this morning, ending early tonight. Least chance for seeing any whitening of the ground is NJ (I80 south) and most of LI where surface temps will probably cause melting.

Follow the models/obs/radar developments and your own takes for this developing FGEN related precip, supported by the oncoming sharpening negative tilt trough that may develop an inverted trough back from the offshore low pressure to LI.

Whatever occurs, it's all done by around midnight.

I was kind of hinting that earlier when I said things might be better then the forecast of nothing expected. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I can't believe I have been tracking this storm non stop since last week.

Ant - you are too dedicated to this process (I have been tracking it nonstop as well all the while it has been circling the drain so to speak on the models).  We will get our chances this winter however this is not it.

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Middlesex county might get a nice burst of snow with the stuff moving in 

Yeah these bands are sharpening up moving east and slowing down. The enhancement is visible off the ocean and the nearby inverted trof. Nyc might have a pleasant burst of snow also.

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