forkyfork Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: Walt has already posted about the potential for strong winds with the cold front passage this evening. I am seeing that occurring right now in places just west of Allentown on stations that report on WU and the Davis Network. Wind gusts to 30mph on these types of stations will translate to gusts up to and over 40 mph at the NWS reporting stations. Mt. Holly has already issued a SWS for this threat for my area. just had some gusts that were around 45/50 mph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 This is a non event for most and a minor event for a few at best IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Tatamy said: Walt has already posted about the potential for strong winds with the cold front passage this evening. I am seeing that occurring right now in places just west of Allentown on stations that report on WU and the Davis Network. Wind gusts to 30mph on these types of stations will translate to gusts up to and over 40 mph at the NWS reporting stations. Mt. Holly has already issued a SWS for this threat for my area. OKX issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Suffolk [NY] till 10:15 PM EST nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2021-O-N… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Past hour NY LaGuardia weather & WINDS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 39 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: Past hour NY LaGuardia weather & WINDS. These strong winds will be going on for a while. I just had my highest gust of the night at 38 mph. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Threats over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Threats over We just have to accept the fact that December is pretty much done. Washout next weekend with 50's. Still have a solid 2 months of winter afterwards anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: Threats over Goldberg saying the Poconos will get 1-3 inches with this so I'm going to be there to see it. It's been snowing there every other day for a week now and there were 3 inches on the ground before it melted during our recent warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Maybe this means they fixed the East Coast storm track issue with the Euro since all the other models were too amped up for such a fast Pacific flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 7, 2021 Author Share Posted December 7, 2021 Good Tuesday morning everyone, Well when I initially saw the NAM and GFS from 00z/06z/7 I almost threw in the towel and and my perception could still be a WHIFF (swing and miss), but I'm continuing as yesterday. Short range modeling from the SPC SREF, SPC HREF, HRRR, EC/RGEM continue with a period of snow for much of the area. My guess the least chance is south of I80 in NJ. How much, probably not much if any accumulation but I'm hanging on. Whether this evolves with SPC modeled timing or HRRR/EC, or not at all..I can't be sure. For those complaining about modeling: If it was real good--we would not be still trying to figure out the reality in advance. and our AMWX chat would be a little different and possibly much less. So I probably won't comment further on this til this time tomorrow...you'll have all the model data to debate and slam. The uncertainty is large. The 500MB trough going negative as it passes by here tomorrow warrants further review of guidance as it comes in today-tonight. Late developer...may favor mostly e LI e CT northeastward for accumulative snow. IF the EC drops it, ditto HRRR/RGEM, then it's probably ballgame over. To me, it still looks like several hours of snow Wednesday (the 8th), beginning during the morning drive time and ending by dark. The Boston area to eastern CT snowfall is probably confined to between Noon-midnight. Amounts most areas from Hartford-Scranton including northwest NJ under 1 inch-some spots just one tenth of an inch (one tenth of an inch is miniscule), but untreated surfaces will be slippery for a short time Wednesday morning over the high terrain. For eastern CT to the Boston area, there could be a somewhat more significant snowfall of 1-2". This should not be a big deal but may require a bit of caution for some of us that need to be on the road. I added a graphic showing the chance of more than 1" of snow. Those chances have increased considerably for CT/MA, since we posted yesterday. The legend may of help. I also the SPC SREF mean and ensemble meters from the 03z/7 cycle for LGA. Click the graphic for greater clarity. --- So - I guess it will just be mood snow or flurries for many? Your call. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Goldberg saying the Poconos will get 1-3 inches with this so I'm going to be there to see it. It's been snowing there every other day for a week now and there were 3 inches on the ground before it melted during our recent warm up I think that might be stretching it a bit. I am up in that area a couple of times a week at least and most of the time the ground is bare. The last time when I was up there and saw snow was about a week ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe this means they fixed the East Coast storm track issue with the Euro since all the other models were too amped up for such a fast Pacific flow. Euro had a coastal storm at first but then trended southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Cmc did the best Hey maybe that will be the model of choice this winter since it was just upgraded . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Tatamy said: I think that might be stretching it a bit. I am up in that area a couple of times a week at least and most of the time the ground is bare. The last time when I was up there and saw snow was about a week ago. Well, I didn't need to shovel it, but it was snowing moderate to heavy a few times especially when the lake effect streamers made it in. That's the other advantage to being there, lake effect is pretty much the only way to consistently see snow in any pattern, so being there really helps with that. There was nothing at all in Jim Thorpe but up where I live around 2000 ft it looked really nice. Lake effect is the best kind of snow...."system snow snobs" dont have a leg to stand on, snow is snow, regardless of where it comes from, it's a distinction without a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 1:25 AM, MJO812 said: Euro says what storm Cold and offshore Got it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro had a coastal storm at first but then trended southward. The Euro came south before the GFS and CMC which were too amped up. We usually don’t start tracking until around 120 hrs out. So the Euro did the best from 120hrs to the present. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 6:29 PM, jm1220 said: Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end. We should be doing this with every storm . With the fast flow , it was hard for this storm to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro came south before the GFS and CMC which were too amped up. We usually don’t start tracking until around 120 hrs out. So the Euro did the best from 120hrs to the present. This is the first time in about 5 years I do not recall the Euro overamping a storm from 84-120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the first time in about 5 years I do not recall the Euro overamping a storm from 84-120 It’s tough to know if this one test case means the big upgrade improved East Coast storm tracks. But suppression seems to have been an issue since the January 2016 blizzard. Last February was the most recent winter example. https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/201601+-+Snowstorm+-+US+east+coast 5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event Early signal (from Sunday 17 Jan 00z) and very consistent forecasts Too low accumulation over NYC Question about snow density for the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We should be doing this with every storm . With the fast flow , it was hard for this storm to trend north. Ninas are known for cutters and SWFEs and it looked for a time like this could be one of them. But the fast flow won out and the system just won’t be able to get itself together in time to affect us. There’s no consolidated system until it’s well out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Ninas are known for cutters and SWFEs and it looked for a time like this could be one of them. But the fast flow won out and the system just won’t be able to get itself together in time to affect us. There’s no consolidated system until it’s well out to sea. There's many many ways for our area to get screwed of snowfall lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: There's many many ways for our area to get screwed of snowfall lol We live in a bad place for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We live in a bad place for snow It’s that we have a great run for a few weeks like in Feb or we get shut out these days. Patterns seem to get stuck in place for longer and hit the same areas. It’s why we have few normal seasons anymore-either way above or below normal. There’s some hope towards the end of the month if the west coast ridge can rebuild. But I’d like to see something good happen in December to think we’ll end up with a snowy winter. Statistically a good December is much better than a lousy one for the winter to end up snowier than normal especially in a Nina which are usually front loaded. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Threats over It’s done, the Euro won, every model (GFS, NAM, RGEM, CMC, HRDPS, UKMET, ICON) has nothing now…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I can't believe we will not even see a flake. Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s that we have a great run for a few weeks like in Feb or we get shut out these days. Patterns seem to get stuck in place for longer and hit the same areas. It’s why we have few normal seasons anymore-either way above or below normal. There’s some hope towards the end of the month if the west coast ridge can rebuild. But I’d like to see something good happen in December to think we’ll end up with a snowy winter. Statistically a good December is much better than a lousy one for the winter to end up snowier than normal especially in a Nina which are usually front loaded. I mean out of our last 5 winters Feb has done the best but thats heavily skewed by last year. We've had a few good Decembers Januarys and Marches mixed in along with an April and a november 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It’s done, the Euro won, every model (GFS, NAM, RGEM, CMC, HRDPS, UKMET, ICON) has nothing now…. Good. My company is taking us out for our holiday lunch tomorrow. Kick-a$$ Italian restaurant. Don't want to miss out, especially after we didn't do anything last year because of COVID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 19 minutes ago, matt8204 said: Good. My company is taking us out for our holiday lunch tomorrow. Kick-a$$ Italian restaurant. Don't want to miss out, especially after we didn't do anything last year because of COVID. Bet the house on a freak blizzard hitting the area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 I had a feeling this was going to trend south. Everything has been trending south this fall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: I can't believe we will not even see a flake. Wtf i think we'll see snow showers tomorrow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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