OBS-NOWCAST for the Probable period of Hazardous wintry weather for a portion of the NYC sub forum centered on Wednesday Dec 8, 2021

[ag3]

3km NAM also has the best snow fall over LI. Similar to the regular NAM.

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, ag3 said:

3km NAM also has the best snow fall over LI. Similar to the regular NAM.

Icon is also west

[ag3]

Rgem is a solid area wide 1"-2"

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Rgem is a solid area wide 1"-2"

 

Anything is good

Nice little event 

[MJO812]

[wdrag]

Good morning,

Still early: Reminder (except if someone has later information), but the NAM stops, I think in 2023, when it's positives are woven into other  modeling.

Here is the 12z cycle

3K NAM Ferrier

3K NAM

12K NAM

all have been favoring e LI and se CT for 2+" of snow for most of the recent cycles. Click for detail.  ALSO, I like to use positive snow depth change as my baseline. Now a matter of integrating with other models, a poor mans ensemble, so to speak. 

[WeatherFox]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
954 AM EST Mon Dec 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold frontal passage occurs this evening. High
pressure will then build in from the west on Tuesday, followed
by a fast moving low passing to the south and east on Wednesday.
High pressure will then return Wednesday night into Thursday..

[WeatherFox]

A teaser event imo with about a possible inch of snow on grassy areas and car tops..

[wdrag]

Not changing anything yet in Thread headline and TAGS.  Will probably wait til 6A Tuesday... am with extended family this evening. 

Which also brings up the potential for 45 MPH gusts this evening with the CFP.  For now no thread,  but we ?MAY? have an SPS event for iso gust 45-50 MPH.  Something similar to a few days ago (tho less thunder). I do see spotty small hail possible with this line as it gets into LI/CT via the HRRR.  TT don't seem very large so the chance is pretty small.  Also stability winds are marginal for transfer of >45 MPH.

Glad there is still snow modeled for us. 

 

[wdrag]

Also fwiw: and we'll see what happens with the Wed eve reality check, but the 12z/6 GGEM continues edging north.  We'll see what happens. 

[snowman19]

The new Euro still wants nothing at all to do with Wednesday. It’s less than half an inch of snow area wide, even using 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021120612&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The new Euro still wants nothing at all to do with Wednesday. It’s less than half an inch of snow area wide, even using 10:1 ratios: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021120612&fh=84&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc= 

Considering how small the Euro incrementally moves though its changes with the surface low from 54-66 were significant.  I think in the end it'll bust pretty badly relative to what it was showing last night or yesterday which was more or less a total whiff

[MJO812]

Sref is not bad

[MJO812]

Nam

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam

Hopefully this can be a nice little event. I’ll definitely be wrong about this being a SWFE due to the fast pattern but maybe it can amp enough for an advisory snow event east of the city. Either way with whatever we get in December should be appreciated. If I had to guess right now I’d say an inch or two from the city on east but possibility for a little more if the Nam is correct. 

[jconsor]

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, jconsor said:

 

1989, 1995 and 2005 analogs

1989 was actually a borderline heavy event here and the best of those three events

had 6" here 10" on eastern LI

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully this can be a nice little event. I’ll definitely be wrong about this being a SWFE due to the fast pattern but maybe it can amp enough for an advisory snow event east of the city. Either way with whatever we get in December should be appreciated. If I had to guess right now I’d say an inch or two from the city on east but possibility for a little more if the Nam is correct. 

Nov 1989 would be the top end potential of this

 

[the_other_guy]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nov 1989 would be the top end potential of this

 

Thats the thanksgiving number right?

Was a nice event.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jfklganyc said:

Thats the thanksgiving number right?

Was a nice event.

yep one of the best storms of that period, a fine dry snow that started sticking on the roads and blowing around right away

 

[MJO812]

Gfs shifted south

 

Looks like the Euro

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs shifted south

 

Looks like the Euro

I have to think Nam is out to lunch until other guidance jumps onto anything more than a minor nuisance event. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nam

Go home NAM,  you are drunk.

 

[RippleEffect]

only 36 hours to go time and we still don't know if we're getting 1-3 or flurries. damn the tech still sucks 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

only 36 hours to go time and we still don't know if we're getting 1-3 or flurries. damn the tech still sucks 

This happens all the time with rain and convection events. But people aren’t paying such close attention unless it’s snow. When was the last 36-48 hr forecast rainfall -convection event that the models nailed to within a T to .3 of an inch of liquid? This is all with in the margin of error at 36 to 48 hours out. 

[Dark Star]

20 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

only 36 hours to go time and we still don't know if we're getting 1-3 or flurries. damn the tech still sucks 

Computer model guidance is merely a tool.  It's up to the meteorologist to make a forecast based on all the data and experience.  As Jeff Beradelli has said many times, the devil is in the details.  Somewhere in the modeling are clues to what actually is going to happen.  

[wishcast_hater]

Computer model guidance is merely a tool.  It's up to the meteorologist to make a forecast based on all the data and experience.  As Jeff Beradelli has said many times, the devil is in the details.  Somewhere in the modeling are clues to what actually is going to happen.  

Except the tools we had before were better than the tools we had now. This is a nothing event and won’t even accumulate except on cars and grass.


.

[Wannabehippie]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This happens all the time with rain and convection events. But people aren’t paying such close attention unless it’s snow. When was the last 36-48 hr forecast rainfall -convection event that the models nailed to within a T to .3 of an inch of liquid? This is all with in the margin of error at 36 to 48 hours out. 

Especially early in the season, when there is still warm ocean water, marginal air temperatures around.  

[Tatamy]

Walt has already posted about the potential for strong winds with the cold front passage this evening.  I am seeing that occurring right now in places just west of Allentown on stations that report on WU and the Davis Network.  Wind gusts to 30mph on these types of stations will translate to gusts up to and over 40 mph at the NWS reporting stations.  Mt. Holly has already issued a SWS for this threat for my area.

[MJO812]

Euro came west