MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agreed. The zonal flow is way, way too fast for this to really amp or phase. I think the GFS is out to lunch I think so also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern. The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even the ICON is more logical than the GFS It's possible to get a phase in a fast flow pattern but it's not really likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Weak and fast flow is the only way we have a chance to snow in the metro. This might be one of those situations where it works out for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Weak and fast flow is the only way we have a chance to snow in the metro. This might be one of those situations where it works out for us And we can get it to snow in a warm pattern in this area. Heck, February 18 was a torch and we still had 3-7 inches that month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 we might get the same amount of snow we got in 30 minutes last february 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 41 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow Yeah the gfs is a garbage model, I never bought that this was a legitimate threat with the lack of blocking. We need blocking to slow the flow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 What a horrible model the gfs is Heck the Euro has also been bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is an extreme outlier. It’s amped solutions make zero sense with that super fast flow That’s why many people were disappointed when the NCEP chose the FV3 core over the MPAS. https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2016/07/28/noaa-makes-decision-new-global-weather-model-controversy-likely/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 When will the NW ticks begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I wouldn't discount a more amped up storm still 3+ days out given rocket fuel ssts to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The CMC came south from yesterday due to a faster Pacific Jet flattening the ridge near California. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Ukie and cmc are really far right It's funny how many people thought this was going to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie and cmc are really far right It's funny how many people thought this was going to cut this year everything has been trending south in days leading up the event i've noticed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The GFS is laughably horrible. It’s been out in left field since Friday. It’s just finally starting to get a clue now. Full cave to the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS is laughably horrible. It’s been out in left field since Friday. It’s just finally starting to get a clue now. Full cave to the Euro so we're getting a warm and sunny winter you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The Euro last week had next weeks storm as a cutter and then a coastal so the Euro didn't get it right either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: so we're getting a warm and sunny winter you think? Actually, the Gfs weeklies said that, so the opposite. I think. Depends on whos posting… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The new Euro is a complete miss, nothing. Total whiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new Euro is a complete miss, nothing. Total whiff time to move on snowman? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, WeatherANDR said: Just a friendly reminder - EFAS pronounced E PHASE is a component covering East based phasing ::: ECMWF might be having issues assessing the low system level sensor data providing samples injection into the main algorithm. Looks like a serious IT incident. Tropical performance was degraded since very good performance on hurricane Sandy 2012 (IMO). GFSv16 seems like OK. Three components on this storm Northern SW (weak) Horizontal SW and some pop up vorticity moist phasing with the two pieces mentioned this is a tough set-up. Since when? Hasn’t had a storm in days, no data is much better than the GFS with all the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Since when? Hasn’t had a storm in days, no data is much better than the GFS with all the data what does this mean in plain english for us weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 NAM NW, with 1-3” for most of forum, more on LI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The WPC prog show weak lows southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark. NYC folks might see some light wet snow on Wednesday and Wednesday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 All aboard the hype train 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL but what's wrong with this post if the storm goes north 50-75 miles we can definitely get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: but what's wrong with this post if the storm goes north 50-75 miles we can definitely get a few inches. Quite possible but none of the models have that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 45 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL From the related article: Wednesday has the potential to cause a bit of havoc for the tri-state with the chance of the city and surrounding counties seeing "significant" snowfall if the current incoming system stays the course, Storm Team 4 says. Three factors argue for a very low probability of significant (6” or greater) snowfall: 1. The current pattern. The fast flow and absence of blocking will not allow any system to stay around sufficiently long to produce a significant snowfall. 2. The most snowfall for NYC during the December 1-20 period with an EPO+, AO+, PNA- was 4.7”. One would need very strong evidence to set aside historic experience. Such evidence does not exist (see #3). 3. Aside from two GFS runs, the guidance favors a light event. Out of the 51 EPS members, just one shows 3” of snow and 3 show 1” or more. 26 show no measurable snowfall (12/5 12z run). The headline and article do not serve the NYC area well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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