Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looking better if you like the colder but much weaker scenario. Right now most models are painting a picture of light snow with a coating to an inch or so. We'll see if this continues to change. It would seem it's either a bit of snow to alot of rain or a small amount of wet snow that sticks to grassy surfaces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Gfs flatter and snowier for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18z gfs 8-10 for the metro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Gfs is a big snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is a big snowstorm Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS Gfs has been trending south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS Wasnt everybody throwing in the towel on December a few days ago because the GFS was showing endless 60s? Gospel or a comic strip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 @NEG NAO & @MJO812I have the Kuchera Ratio totals here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, jfklganyc said: Wasnt everybody throwing in the towel on December a few days ago because the GFS was showing endless 60s? Gospel or a comic strip? Maybe a bit of both? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has been trending south The only trends that seem to matter for us are the ones that occur under 72 hrs. It would be great if we had a model that could get a 96-120 hr coastal storm track correct. Funny how models usually can get cutters right from a week out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Gfs has been trending south This is why you don’t cancel winter on December 1. Sure, logic tells me this probably won’t happen, but I’ve seen this movie before… it’s mild, it gets cold for a quick snap and snows, and it melts in three days.I’ve also lived the movie where it’s cold and cold and cold and dry.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On the 18z GEFS 10 / 20 members are biting on this one for the NYC region. 8 / 10 are 6”+ for at least part of the metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, North and West said: This is why you don’t cancel winter on December 1. Sure, logic tells me this probably won’t happen, but I’ve seen this movie before… it’s mild, it gets cold for a quick snap and snows, and it melts in three days. I’ve also lived the movie where it’s cold and cold and cold and dry. . Yeah 90-91 had very little cold air but we managed 2 good storms in a 2 week period from late Dec thru early Jan. We had maybe 5 days with snowcover however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Yeah 90-91 had very little cold air but we managed 2 good storms in a 2 week period from late Dec thru early Jan. We had maybe 5 days with snowcover however Too soon! . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 damn GFS is a biggie! i hope this happens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 The 18z GFS scenario isn’t very likely. The individual EPS members suggest only a very low probability of such an outcome. If the AO+, NAO+, PNA- forecast is accurate, the largest storm during the December 1-20 period occurred during December 19-20, 2008 with 4.5” in NYC. More than a foot fell in parts of southern New England. It is too soon to write off a snowfall, but a lot more support from the other guidance will be needed to accept something along the lines of the 18z GFS. Such an outcome might not even show up on the 0z cycle. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 58 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Who believes this ? I think the jury is still out on this one...but as I mentioned earlier it seems the CMC was the most consistent and other models are trending towards it now - CMC 2 runs ago showed a SECS "Shhh, we hacked the 18z GFS, don't tell anyone" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: The only trends that seem to matter for us are the ones that occur under 72 hrs. It would be great if we had a model that could get a 96-120 hr coastal storm track correct. Funny how models usually can get cutters right from a week out. Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The 18z GFS scenario isn’t very likely. The individual EPS members suggest only a very low probability of such an outcome. If the AO+, NAO+, PNA- forecast is accurate, the largest storm during the December 1-20 period occurred during December 19-20, 2008 with 4.5” in NYC. More than a foot fell in parts of southern New England. It is too soon to write off a snowfall, but a lot more support from the other guidance will be needed to accept something along the lines of the 18z GFS. Such an outcome might not even show up on the 0z cycle. Thanks Don. No two winters are alike but will hold out hope for a repeat of 2008/2009. Icy winter with above average seasonal snowfall capped by a nice March first noreaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end. This isn't a SWFE anymore. It's a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Exactly-I’m not counting on anything until it’s under 72hrs. These can easily trend north significantly at the end. A thread the needle SWFE has been our storm track of choice when the general pattern was challenging. The models seem struggle even more when a storm follows another one by only a few days. But I don’t really trust individual model forecasts for coastals until we get under 72 hrs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don. No two winters are alike but will hold out hope for a repeat of 2008/2009. Icy winter with above average seasonal snowfall capped by a nice March first noreaster. I am hopeful that this won’t be a relatively snowless winter, but the recent push by the AO to strongly positive levels as typically preceded winters with below to much below normal snowfall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, North and West said: This is why you don’t cancel winter on December 1. Sure, logic tells me this probably won’t happen, but I’ve seen this movie before… it’s mild, it gets cold for a quick snap and snows, and it melts in three days. I’ve also lived the movie where it’s cold and cold and cold and dry. . Ensembles have consistently been too strong with SE ridging past D10 the last few weeks...there has been a tendency to try to show a shutout pattern beyond D10 but when we get closer in we more end up in a poor pattern vs a total shutout pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Damn the Euro is more suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I am hopeful that this won’t be a relatively snowless winter, but the recent push by the AO to strongly positive levels as typically preceded winters with below to much below normal snowfall. How many winters in Central Park have been 10" or below following a 39"+ winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, TriPol said: How many winters in Central Park have been 10" or below following a 39"+ winter? Definitely 96-97 and 11-12. 94-95 was close but did a bit above 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, TriPol said: How many winters in Central Park have been 10" or below following a 39"+ winter? Such winters have been rare (2 out of 38). 14 out of 38 have been below 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The 18z GFS scenario isn’t very likely. The individual EPS members suggest only a very low probability of such an outcome. If the AO+, NAO+, PNA- forecast is accurate, the largest storm during the December 1-20 period occurred during December 19-20, 2008 with 4.5” in NYC. More than a foot fell in parts of southern New England. It is too soon to write off a snowfall, but a lot more support from the other guidance will be needed to accept something along the lines of the 18z GFS. Such an outcome might not even show up on the 0z cycle. Metsfan weenied you lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Metsfan weenied you lol It’s all good. I hope he gets the snow he craves. Even if not, he can be happy with the Mets’ big free agent signing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Metsfan weenied you lol 15 or so years ago Don crushed ji and it was one of the funniest moments in board history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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