North and West Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:27 AM, donsutherland1 said: It’s all good. I hope he gets the snow he craves. Even if not, he can be happy with the Mets’ big free agent signing. As a lifelong Mets fan, I fully expect Max Scherzer’s arm to fly off around Memorial Day.. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 @MJO812The Euro wants to have none of this! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:28 AM, BxEngine said: 15 or so years ago Don crushed ji and it was one of the funniest moments in board history Expand Is it possible that I can see that post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:38 AM, North and West said: As a lifelong Mets fan, I fully expect Max Scherzer’s arm to fly off around Memorial Day. . Expand I suspect that a bigger risk might be a badly-shortened season or worse. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:50 AM, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that a bigger risk might be a badly-shortened season or worse. Expand Or a Winter that never existed . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/4/2021 at 11:16 PM, donsutherland1 said: The 18z GFS scenario isn’t very likely. The individual EPS members suggest only a very low probability of such an outcome. If the AO+, NAO+, PNA- forecast is accurate, the largest storm during the December 1-20 period occurred during December 19-20, 2008 with 4.5” in NYC. More than a foot fell in parts of southern New England. It is too soon to write off a snowfall, but a lot more support from the other guidance will be needed to accept something along the lines of the 18z GFS. Such an outcome might not even show up on the 0z cycle. Expand you and your stats and facts I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:38 AM, North and West said: As a lifelong Mets fan, I fully expect Max Scherzer’s arm to fly off around Memorial Day. . Expand Expectations low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:52 AM, Iceresistance said: Or a Winter that never existed . . . Expand Let’s hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 2:02 AM, jm1220 said: you and your stats and facts I’d love for it to somehow work out for us with this storm but we’re working ourselves up for disappointment (near the coast) in a setup like this. Maybe this can be the one that works out but I doubt it. We need blocking and the pattern being slowed down for a storm to work out this Nina season. Expand It’s a low probability situation, but some snow would still be better than none. I am looking forward to tonight’s guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Nam fwiw has clouds and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 4:06 AM, MJO812 said: Expand Let the north trend begin. Honestly I would be OK with what this run of the GFS is showing even though I don't think this will be the final outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 4:33 AM, MJO812 said: Gefs Expand canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 4:42 AM, RippleEffect said: canadian? Expand Way offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Ukie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 4:53 AM, MJO812 said: Ukie Expand Queen Elizabeth set me free! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 5:24 AM, jm1220 said: Queen Elizabeth set me free! Expand john i think you will probably bullseye with this storm because most models are bringing this a lot more east than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 euro is a miss. onto to tomorrow, good night everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:38 AM, North and West said: As a lifelong Mets fan, I fully expect Max Scherzer’s arm to fly off around Memorial Day. . Expand uhm theres not going to be a baseball season so you don't have to worry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 2:34 AM, donsutherland1 said: It’s a low probability situation, but some snow would still be better than none. I am looking forward to tonight’s guidance. Expand so the guidance shifting east is a good thing right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 1:50 AM, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that a bigger risk might be a badly-shortened season or worse. Expand said this last year, there's going to be a work stoppage and it's going to be a long one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 8:36 AM, LibertyBell said: said this last year, there's going to be a work stoppage and it's going to be a long one I really hope you’re wrong, but they’re so good at this, I fear you’re right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Euro a bit more improved at 06z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 12:27 PM, Allsnow said: Euro a bit more improved at 06z Expand We've seen models amp up time and time again as we get closer so I wouldn't discount this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 8:35 AM, LibertyBell said: so the guidance shifting east is a good thing right? Expand At present, things still appear on track for a light accumulation. But we’ll have a far better idea within 48-72 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 8:34 AM, LibertyBell said: uhm theres not going to be a baseball season so you don't have to worry about that Expand Yes there will. I doubt Manfred wants a whole season lockout. On 12/5/2021 at 12:53 PM, SnoSki14 said: We've seen models amp up time and time again as we get closer so I wouldn't discount this potential. Expand do think the models will shift back northwest but I don't think they will shift alot. The flow is still fast so there will be a limit to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 2:23 PM, MJO812 said: Yes there will. I doubt Manfred wants a whole season lockout. do think the models will shift back northwest but I don't think they will shift alot. The flow is still fast so there will be a limit to that. Expand Agreed. The zonal flow is way, way too fast for this to really amp or phase. I think the GFS is out to lunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/5/2021 at 3:04 PM, bluewave said: The NAM looks like it could be a possibility with the fast flow putting us in the NW edge of the precipitation shield. This may mean that the recent Euro fix worked for East Coast storms. Those tucked in low solutions from the GFS don’t really match the pattern. Agreed. Fits the actual flow.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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