Winter Banter

[HVSnowLover]

3 hours ago, Dark Star said:

One of the problems is that the models have a problem picking up the location of development/intensification of the low pressure.  Many times, 5-7 days out, models prog storms developing or re-developing along the coast, further south.  This gives us snow lovers false hope.  Then the models will "cave" as the target date approaches and keeps showing development farther and farther north.  This changes a forecast from a decent snow potential, to sleet, then finally, an all rain situation.

Yes but that hasn't been the only problem. From my recall we've only had two storms this winter that we ever had any shot and missed north. Most storms are cutters or miss to the south and east.  

[HVSnowLover]

NYC on east still does better on patterns that favor DC-ACY (Aka January 2022)

North of I80/I287 to I84 probably is like middleground

North of I84 does better with patterns that favor interior  

[rclab]

On 2/25/2022 at 7:54 AM, LibertyBell said:

"WWIII" isn't a word though which is why Wordle is only for rank amateurs.

 

 

On 2/25/2022 at 8:01 AM, BxEngine said:

Dude. 

 

On 2/25/2022 at 3:22 PM, LibertyBell said:

Cant help it I'm a Scrabble purist

 

7 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Oh you’re something 

Good evening Liberty, BxE, Irish Julian. “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” It’s understandable that an extremely bright but impressionable young mind would be affected by this. I was 17 when I first heard it but I just ended up falling in love with Julie Andrews. As always …….

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

 

Good evening Liberty, BxE, Irish Julian. “Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious” It’s understandable that an extremely bright but impressionable young mind would be affected by this. I was 17 when I first heard it but I just ended up falling in love with Julie Andrews. As always …….

my favorite word has always been antidisestablishmentarianism

and also memorizing pi to 50 digits when I was 12 lol

let's see if I still remember it

3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937511

yup it's all still there lol

It was a contest between me and another kid in my class to see who could memorize the most in one weekend, I did pi, the sq rt of 2, the greek alphabet, the constellations, the chemical elements and the presidents (first middle and last names backwards and forwards.)

 

damn I miss those days that was a fun time when the sky was the limit

and even the sky wasn't a limit lol

btw you mentioned Alexander Pope earlier, I have his translation of the Iliad, it's still considered the best one.

[rclab]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

my favorite word has always been antidisestablishmentarianism

and also memorizing pi to 50 digits when I was 12 lol

let's see if I still remember it

3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937511

yup it's all still there lol

It was a contest between me and another kid in my class to see who could memorize the most in one weekend, I did pi, the sq rt of 2, the greek alphabet, the constellations, the chemical elements and the presidents (first middle and last names backwards and forwards.)

 

damn I miss those days that was a fun time when the sky was the limit

and even the sky wasn't a limit lol

btw you mentioned Alexander Pope earlier, I have his translation of the Iliad, it's still considered the best one.

Good morning Liberty and thank you for a wonderful reply. I enjoy interaction with singular minds like yours and others on the forum. In your case, unlike me, you don’t even need a search tool. Stay well, as always …..

[gravitylover]

8 hours ago, rclab said:

 In your case, unlike me, you don’t even need a search tool. Stay well, as always …..

20 years. You know the drill Give him 20 years and he'll be as dumb as... me 

[rclab]

51 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

20 years. You know the drill Give him 20 years and he'll be as dumb as... me 

Good evening gravity I consider you and others as the singular minds I was talking about. 20 years from now if I’m fortunate, what’s left of me will be the nucleus for frozen precipitation. Right now I’ll settle on remembering how to reboot the I Pad. Stay well, as always ….

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

20 years. You know the drill Give him 20 years and he'll be as dumb as... me 

you're not dumb at all lol....I don't know maybe it's some memory trick, I have no conscious control over it, it just happens.

[Juliancolton]

21 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

3.14159265358979323846264338327950288419716939937511

Hey, no rounding. That last digit is a 0.

I did the memorizing pi thing in school, too. I had the best luck starting after the 3.14 and then doing a cadence in three-number blocks. If you do it that way, you end up with a bunch of alliterative benchmarks throughout the first hundred digits. 338 327, 939 937, 510 582, 494 459, 640 628 620, 899 862 803, 706 798. It works out almost scarily well. If I'm reciting and start to lose my rhythm, it's very easy to get back on track by figuring out where I am in relation to the "double nines" or "triple eights" or whatever.  Was never able to find a similarly successful pattern in e, sqrt2, or the golden ratio... pi is just cool like that.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Hey, no rounding. That last digit is a 0.

I did the memorizing pi thing in school, too. I had the best luck starting after the 3.14 and then doing a cadence in three-number blocks. If you do it that way, you end up with a bunch of alliterative benchmarks throughout the first hundred digits. 338 327, 939 937, 510 582, 494 459, 640 628 620, 899 862 803, 706 798. It works out almost scarily well. If I'm reciting and start to lose my rhythm, it's very easy to get back on track by figuring out where I am in relation to the "double nines" or "triple eights" or whatever.  Was never able to find a similarly successful pattern in e, sqrt2, or the golden ratio... pi is just cool like that.

omg you're right!  it almost sounds like a song.  It's the way I did it, without consciously realizing how I did it.  Did you get past 100?  I always wanted to do it to 100 digits (I stopped at 50 since that was the challenge my friend gave), I might tackle that while I'm still youn....errr middle aged lol (48 now.)  I didn't do e or the golden ratio, might as well try that too.  But pi to 100 is my priority lol.  I think I can do it because I also did the chemical elements (there were 109 at that time).  You should try that too, I found that my fascination with the periodic table made it easier for me because I already knew the order of several groups (like the Lanthanides and the Actinides.)

 

 

 

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

omg you're right!  it almost sounds like a song.  It's the way I did it, without consciously realizing how I did it.  Did you get past 100?  I always wanted to do it to 100 digits (I stopped at 50 since that was the challenge my friend gave), I might tackle that while I'm still youn....errr middle aged lol (48 now.)  I didn't do e or the golden ratio, might as well try that too.  But pi to 100 is my priority lol.

Agreed, very much like a song and it helps to 'sing' it a little instead of just trying to rattle off digits. (At least at this level of memorization... the guys who can recite tens of thousands of digits are clearly on another plane.)  I've had 101 decimal places committed to memory since I was a kid. After that last "double seven" my pattern mostly falls apart and it becomes a lot more rote which isn't my strong suit.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

Agreed, very much like a song and it helps to 'sing' it a little instead of just trying to rattle off digits. (At least at this level of memorization... the guys who can recite tens of thousands of digits are clearly on another plane.)  I've had 101 decimal places committed to memory since I was a kid. After that last "double seven" my pattern mostly falls apart and it becomes a lot more rote which isn't my strong suit.

I think this is the way the ancients (and even some modern people) memorize historical texts and epic sagas.  They were passed down through history in oral form.  I've always been fascinated at how the Iliad and Odyssey were memorized by some and even the Bible and Koran.  Now that requires some powerful brain usage.

I remember earlier this year I was on the train and I didn't have access to a writing device and for some odd reason I started to form a rhyme in my head and since I couldn't write it down, I committed it to memory. It wasn't that long (about 20 lines) but I used the cadence of the syllables subconsciously to memorize it (I just realized this now that you mentioned this.....fascinating how our minds work!)  And isn't it amazing that we remember this stuff all these years later?  How old were you when you memorized pi?  Long term memory always amazes me.

[MJO812]

Winter might be over 

[rclab]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter might be over 

Good morning Anthony and it eventually will be. We are an ongoing Greek Tragedy. Rueing the loss of the cold season, begrudging the coming warmth, yet enjoying the it’s comfort. We begin to wonder if 100 degrees is possible all the while keeping tabs on the pulse of the oceans/atmosphere for hints of the next cold seasons evolution. I thank the forum. For I find it thoroughly enjoyable, even though, for a season or so we lose S19 but still look forward to his expected/welcome cold season return. Stay well, Anthony, as the line  in Carousel states; “April cried and stepped aside and along came pretty little May”. For you May is full of promises that will all be kept. Stay well, as always … 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter might be over 

Here yeah, nothing new. We could still pull of a snow event later in March, but that has no staying power so deep winter is kicked 

[HVSnowLover]

Only 3 snow events for NYC this winter >1 inch but still close to average seasonal totals.  

[JerseyWx]

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter might be over 

I think that's pretty much it.  After this first week of March, how much time do we really have left to see a noteworthy event (at least 3-6")?  Higher terrain will definitely have more of a chance.

Despite only having about 3 inches more than the 19-20 winter IMBY, this one felt a lot better.  We definitely had more cold, and what snow we did have ended up sticking around because of it.

[LibertyBell]

They have one for the elements too

 

 

[bluewave]

Another only in the post 2010 climate record.

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

21 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Only 3 snow events for NYC this winter >1 inch but still close to average seasonal totals.  

How is 17.5 inches close to a seasonal average of 29.8?

Granted that's provided NYC doesn't see any snow in March or April but it doesn't look good for them right now.

Also Central Park under measured almost every event this winter. What actually fell in Central Park is around 21 inches, give or take an inch

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

How is 17.5 inches close to a seasonal average of 29.8?

Granted that's provided NYC doesn't see any snow in March or April but it doesn't look good for them right now.

Also Central Park under measured almost every event this winter. What actually fell in Central Park is around 21 inches, give or take an inch

You're right, the "real" snowfall across the 5 boroughs was between 20-25 inches south to north and west to east.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Torch said:

Anyone believe the United Nations science report on climate change reported in todays news?

There's been a really obvious change in climate between the 80s and now....it's going to be positively frightening on this planet by 2030, let alone the 2040 they mentioned in that report.  The positive thing is that most oil rigs will be underwater and unusable by then so at least we'll be completely done with that menace and the fossil fuel cartel will be completely bankrupt by then and more states will have seen the light and banned fracking like NY has.  Fracking has also been banned on a regional scale in NE PA too and the Delaware River basin in PA and NJ.  More and more are seeing the light

 

[Dark Star]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There's been a really obvious change in climate between the 80s and now....it's going to be positively frightening on this planet by 2030, let alone the 2040 they mentioned in that report.  The positive thing is that most oil rigs will be underwater and unusable by then so at least we'll be completely done with that menace and the fossil fuel cartel will be completely bankrupt by then and more states will have seen the light and banned fracking like NY has.  Fracking has also been banned on a regional scale in NE PA too and the Delaware River basin in PA and NJ.  More and more are seeing the light

 

Ah yes, import more oil from Russia and the middle east...

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Ah yes, import more oil from Russia and the middle east...

No I would put mindbending sanctions on ANY nations that were still producing fossil fuels by then, to the point where it would no longer be profitable.  Profits are the only language these companies and countries understand.

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

How is 17.5 inches close to a seasonal average of 29.8?

Granted that's provided NYC doesn't see any snow in March or April but it doesn't look good for them right now.

Also Central Park under measured almost every event this winter. What actually fell in Central Park is around 21 inches, give or take an inch

Agree with bolded which is the real total I'm going by. Also since when did average become 29.8? I thought it was like around 26.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree with bolded which is the real total I'm going by. Also since when did average become 29.8? I thought it was like around 26.

26 is now the average for JFK lol

[HVSnowLover]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

26 is now the average for JFK lol

Ok so maybe the area has been averaging out more if NYC totals have gone up in the last 20 years and I84 corridor has gone down? 

[Brasiluvsnow]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

There's been a really obvious change in climate between the 80s and now....it's going to be positively frightening on this planet by 2030, let alone the 2040 they mentioned in that report.  The positive thing is that most oil rigs will be underwater and unusable by then so at least we'll be completely done with that menace and the fossil fuel cartel will be completely bankrupt by then and more states will have seen the light and banned fracking like NY has.  Fracking has also been banned on a regional scale in NE PA too and the Delaware River basin in PA and NJ.  More and more are seeing the light

 

lets shut down oil rigs and let's stop producing fuel here in the United States and preach about making the world green and in the same breath lets purchase our fuel and oil from other nations ( for 3 and 4 times the co$t ) while those nations continue to frack and drill and could care less about the carbon footprint or the environment. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but mine differs from yours brother,,,,,U N article ? nah I will pass

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree with bolded which is the real total I'm going by. Also since when did average become 29.8? I thought it was like around 26.

The 1991-2020 average, which is the latest published averages, they update them every 30 years, is 29.8 for both central park and Laguardia. Actually Central Parks average is 29.9 when you add up all the individual months and divide, but somehow they couldn't even get that right.

The HV averages haven't gone down, I'm in Orange County and I've averaged 53.8 the last 10 years which is about 3-5 inches above the average. It's not that the interior averages have gone down, the coast is starting to lessen the gap. Of course percentage wise a 5 inch jump in average from 25 to 30 is a much bigger jump then say 45 to 50.

Will see if the trend continues. The Northeast coast is warming at such a rate I would think a reversal in the snow trends will soon have their day, at least for the coastal areas, say NJ to SE MA. unfortunately. Boston and north on the coast will probably continue to increase until even they hit a certain temperature threshold.

 

[CIK62]

 

SO WHICH DO YOU PREFER?        THE BIG DIFFERENCE IS THE   S.E.  UP TO OUR AREA, IT SEEMS.