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Winter Banter


Rjay
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Sadly, not surprising and I fully expect more in the future. No convincing needs to be done. That's a decoy. It's the money being made that needs to be disrupted. Good luck with that. The fact it's a political issue isn't helping but is the secondary concern. Just my opinion and all I'm going to say about it because it doesn't matter what I say. What matters is what is done. 

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8 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Sadly, not surprising and I fully expect more in the future. No convincing needs to be done. That's a decoy. It's the money being made that needs to be disrupted. Good luck with that. The fact it's a political issue isn't helping but is the secondary concern. Just my opinion and all I'm going to say about it because it doesn't matter what I say. What matters is what is done. 

society needs to be run by artificial intelligence take faulty human minds completely out of the equation.

 

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7 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

we're well and truly ****ed

like i don't even know why i go to work anymore

Good morning Will. If the first sentence was physically true the second would become a self fulfilled prophecy. May you remain ‘Will’ and never change in the coming year. As always…..

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How is Alaska breaking heat records?  I thought thats where all the cold air was but I see it's historic heat over there now too?

 

Good morning Liberty. From my very limited understanding and the simplified, foe me, explanations of kind board members, I believe it was an atmospheric Christmas present from the 50th state to the 49th. As always …

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14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Everyone had a meltdown when I mentioned CC in the New England forum. 

I don't understand why it's so triggering to people and how is a scientific fact political. It's like saying 2+2=4 is controversial.

But you can't ignore it. We are crushing past records.  

The reaction to the mention of climate change should not draw negative reactions. Climate change is now well-established scientific theory ("established fact" as the IPCC's technical report termed it). It is not political. Weather events and climate change are inseparable, as synoptic patterns are occurring within the context of increasing greenhouse gas forcing on SSTAs, Arctic ice, etc.

Taking consideration of climate change is now essential to understanding the evolution of weather events. Climate change-driven events ranging from the effects of Arctic Amplification to marine heatwaves impact synoptic patterns. "Stuck" patterns or long-duration resonance events have become more frequent (December 2015 in the East, Summer 2021 in parts of the West, and December 2021 in the South provide some examples). Heat has become more frequent, more widespread, and more intense. Severe cold can still occur, but such outbreaks have become somewhat less frequent, less widespread, and less intense.

Ignoring climate change and its impacts can lead to bad subseasonal forecasts (often frequent strong cold biases). Reliance on past analogs while ignoring such variables as marine heatwaves and their impact on tropical convection (and through convection on the larger hemispheric pattern) can lead to errors that might otherwise be avoidable when the fuller context of what's driving synoptic patterns is considered.

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The reaction to the mention of climate change should not draw negative reactions. Climate change is now well-established scientific theory ("established fact" as the IPCC's technical report termed it). It is not political. Weather events and climate change are inseparable, as synoptic patterns are occurring within the context of increasing greenhouse gas forcing on SSTAs, Arctic ice, etc.

Taking consideration of climate change is now essential to understanding the evolution of weather events. Climate change-driven events ranging from the effects of Arctic Amplification to marine heatwaves impact synoptic patterns. "Stuck" patterns or long-duration resonance events have become more frequent (December 2015 in the East, Summer 2021 in parts of the West, and December 2021 in the South provide some examples). Heat has become more frequent, more widespread, and more intense. Severe cold can still occur, but such outbreaks have become somewhat less frequent, less widespread, and less intense.

Ignoring climate change and its impacts can lead to bad subseasonal forecasts (often frequent strong cold biases). Reliance on past analogs while ignoring such variables as marine heatwaves and their impact on tropical convection (and through convection on the larger hemispheric pattern) can lead to errors that might otherwise be avoidable when the fuller context of what's driving synoptic patterns is considered.

 

How much has CC influenced our current weather vs a regular -PNA pattern.....notice how the Pac NW is getting so much snow.  How would our climate have been in December if there were no CC?

I know we model different CC scenarios but do we also model what our climate would be like without any CC?  Human influenced that is.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How much has CC influenced our current weather vs a regular -PNA pattern.....notice how the Pac NW is getting so much snow.  How would our climate have been in December if there were no CC?

I know we model different CC scenarios but do we also model what our climate would be like without any CC?  Human influenced that is.

Without running the climate models, it’s difficult to know. Given what has been established from past attribution studies—longer and more intense patterns—it is likely that December would have been cooler than it will wind up being. With a consistent AO- pattern (but less negative than it has been) during the second half of the month and a reduced SE ridge (due to a weaker PNA-), there may have been more opportunities for snowfall. 

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3 hours ago, North and West said:


The movies where this management structure occurs generally do not end well

giphy.gif


.

lol yea, but did you see this....everyone I sent this to thinks it's pretty cool he was able to extend his life this way:

https://twitter.com/i/events/1476316938984779776

 

Meet Dr. Scott-Morgan, the world's most advanced cyborg
After being diagnosed with ALS, scientist Dr. Peter Scott-Morgan underwent radical surgeries and cybernetic implementations, pushing the boundaries of what it means to be human.
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20 hours ago, rclab said:

Good morning Will. If the first sentence was physically true the second would become a self fulfilled prophecy. May you remain ‘Will’ and never change in the coming year. As always…..

nah dawg i'll banter with you when i feel like it but it's hard to give a shit anymore about anything

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Anyway, this snowless early winter is good for my work which is bridge and guide rail inspection for Sussex County in extreme nw NJ. No snow on the ground is best, for easier access/viewing/documenting conditions bridge and guiderails.

This coming week, barring the unforeseen, I should be able to complete one project- the inspection of 492 County bridges and adding guide rail to the GIS database where it's not already documented.  Once complete (I hope this week- good 4-5G WIFI helps complete the work rapidly for on-line access), then I move on to updating all the inventory where GuideRail was replaced in 2021 (taking it out of the red = need to done, to green = this is undamaged). 

In our County, it costs about $31/foot of Guiderail and when you hit those ends with the nice yellow-black object markers, its about $3500.  (Costs can vary depending on market). Those guide rails, no one thinks about, but they are constantly saving lives via embankment tumbles, returning vehicles to the highway  When folks spin out-bounce off and go merrily on their way with some damage their vehicle, little do they think--- thanks for the guide rail.

So there is benefit for a few of us.

Have a day!  Walt  1020A/31

 

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Record highs are again tumbling in the South. As of 12 pm EST, Baton Rouge, Galveston, and Pensacola have all set daily record high temperatures.

Galveston has had 15 daily record highs and 1 record-tying high. One of those high temperatures set a new December record. 24 of December’s 31 days saw their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd warmest high temperatures for those days.

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44 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Walt, I don’t know if there was a word deliberately missing from the above or not, but man does it fit!

To all, here’s hoping for better days ahead in 2022, cheers!

 

No, no word missing.

Typically nice to wish all a good day, but I know some might not like that.

What I do know, is that I want to be back tomorrow... to do that, I have to have some sort of day. Most days are very good...we are blessed. 

Happy New Year to all! Walt

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