Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I don’t think there’s any malice. I think it’s just incompetence. Honestly, I don’t know which one is worse. 

I agree, though perhaps with some bias, as in - if the numbers favor them, they're good to go; if the numbers favor you, they look for mistakes.  (Said he who worked for a public agency nearly 36 years, though my numbers were trees and those don't move as fast as money.)

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Post this shit in OT dude. 

There are those that seem interested in NOT allowing light to rise over the societal state of dystopian darkness of that thing.

For those lusting to maintain over-arching senses of arresting doom over theirs and everyone else's world, they should really be far more afraid of a limited scale, if not outright full on nuclear holocaust at this point.   That's far more likely than anything that pandemic shit's going to do moving forward.

The latter's followed the biological arc, and digging up content that fits one's narrative and perpetuates their own agenda ...unfortunately does not change the reality that it's distancing into history. 

 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I don’t think there’s any malice. I think it’s just incompetence. Honestly, I don’t know which one is worse. 

Incompetence and extreme hubris.

2018: Newly appointed Powell finally starts to raise rates and draw down the Fed's balance sheet after it recklessly kept rates historically low for years and years. Markets puke in Q4, Trump gets pissed, Powell capitulates and stops tightening. Market cheers, recovers and gets even bubblier in 2019.

2020: COVID. Market pukes bigtime, bubble really starts to pop. Powell/governments panic even harder, prints trillions out of thin air, creates unprecedented speculative mania.

Late 2020: Inflation starts showing up, but Fed doesn't see it.

Early 2021 Fed: Okay, we have some inflation, but we actually want inflation to run above target.

Mid 2021 Fed: Okay, yeah, inflation's running hot, but it's "transitory." We'll keep printing and keep rates at zero.

Late 2021 Fed: Shit, okay, maybe inflation isn't transitory. Time to talk like we're hawkish, but we won't do anything until March. Keep printing. Keep rates at zero.

2022: CPI at highest level in 40 years and climbing, stock/housing/bond bubble starting to pop and the Fed hasn't even begun hiking rates or reducing its balance sheet. Absolute clusterf*ck in progress. No good outcomes here. If Fed doesn't hike aggressively, inflation likely stays elevated, social stability may break down, and we get a recession with inflation. Yuck. If they do hike, say saiyonara to risk assets, house prices, bonds and say hello to recession.

Strap on a helmet. It's gonna be ugly for a while. And that's without all the recent Ukraine stuff going down.

 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Incompetence and extreme hubris.

2018: Newly appointed Powell finally starts to raise rates and draw down the Fed's balance sheet after it recklessly kept rates historically low for years and years. Markets puke in Q4, Trump gets pissed, Powell capitulates and stops tightening. Market cheers, recovers and gets even bubblier in 2019.

2020: COVID. Market pukes bigtime, bubble really starts to pop. Powell/governments panic even harder, prints trillions out of thin air, creates unprecedented speculative mania.

Late 2020: Inflation starts showing up, but Fed doesn't see it.

Early 2021 Fed: Okay, we have some inflation, but we actually want inflation to run above target.

Mid 2021 Fed: Okay, yeah, inflation's running hot, but it's "transitory." We'll keep printing and keep rates at zero.

Late 2021 Fed: Shit, okay, maybe inflation isn't transitory. Time to talk like we're hawkish, but we won't do anything until March. Keep printing. Keep rates at zero.

2022: CPI at highest level in 40 years and climbing, stock/housing/bond bubble starting to pop and the Fed hasn't even begun hiking rates or reducing its balance sheet. Absolute clusterf*ck in progress. No good outcomes here. If Fed doesn't hike aggressively, inflation likely stays elevated, social stability may break down, and we get a recession with inflation. Yuck. If they do hike, say saiyonara to risk assets, house prices, bonds and say hello to recession.

Strap on a helmet. It's gonna be ugly for a while. And that's without all the recent Ukraine stuff going down.

 

So…what would your advice be to someone in the market as a FTHB?  Act quickly before the rates increase further?  This may lead one to be underwater should housing collapse. Wait until rates increase to a point that causes housing prices to stabilize?  It’s possible housing stays inflated despite the increased rates, so buying power is greatly diminished.  I don’t know what to do. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So entering a funk of paranoia about hypothetical dystopia futures means that I want those dystopia futures to materialize. I mean there are a number of people who have tried to portray me as “The Antichrist” despite the fact that I’m a feeble man who has been completely rejected by all classes of society, who subsists on part time low wage work.

I actually think I was offered fame and riches by some unseen figures someplace, but they terrified me and I smelled danger and darkness so I simply walked away and now they’re punishing me by doing away with me the best ways they know how. However I think it’s entirely possible if not likely they never actually wanted to make me a star or anything to begin with and I torturing me until I walked away was part of the plan.

You can try and slice it anyway you need to in order to fit the plot, but no matter how you slice it, I’m a paranoid and feeble social recluse and reject, a Hollywood exile who really wants nothing more than for everybody to stay the hell away from me. I don’t want to rise to power and dominate your universe. I want you to stay away from me with the exception of allowing me to occasionally post to this forum, if this very post doesn’t get me banned for being too psycho.

I think all out nuclear annihilation is highly unlikely.

huh?  I was commenting on Phin's post, which was angled at an entirely different someone else/context.

No offense, but I'm not a part of your conversation there -

[IowaStorm05]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

huh?  I was commenting on Phin's post, which was angled at an entirely different someone else/context.

No offense, but I'm not a part of your conversation there -

Not a problem. It looked like a dismissive jab at my statement because I just happened to be talking about unfavorable social hypothesis about the future, but it was a coincidence and I get now that it had nothing to do with my post.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Do you ever get the feeling everything involving the government is now a battle and their default position is to destroy you and you need to fight to survive? Because it often feels that way to me. Something has changed. The bureaucratic silliness was always there but now there is something malicious and uncaring about it.

edit: this is not meant to be a political post. I am not insinuating this is a recent issue related to any election. It just seems to be a reflection of our increasingly more anti-social and repressive/regressive/closed society. 

Absolutely we just got news the 6400 the IRS insisted we owed them was a mistake on their part. Damn that wore me down. I knew we were right. What a relief but talk about incompetent. Actually got a refund of 534 to boot

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

So…what would your advice be to someone in the market as a FTHB?  Act quickly before the rates increase further?  This may lead one to be underwater should housing collapse. Wait until rates increase to a point that causes housing prices to stabilize?  It’s possible housing stays inflated despite the increased rates, so buying power is greatly diminished.  I don’t know what to do. 

It's a tough call. On the one hand, home prices are quite elevated by historical standards. There is a risk of ending up underwater, at least for a time, if the economy really tanks. If you have a long time horizon and view your home as a shelter and not as a speculative asset, perhaps you won't care that much? If on the other hand you're looking to cash out for a profit in a few years and upgrade to a bigger home, well, there's risk in that. I can't really predict the course of interest rates or inflation, but my guess is that because so much debt has been created in the last decade, the economy will be much more sensitive to small increases in rates. I don't think we're going to see a 1980s style Fed funds rate. Anything much above 3 or 4% would probably cause a significant deflationary event.

I'll just add that my folks bought their home in 1981 when the Fed was last fighting inflation. The economy was terrible and they were paying something like 18% on their mortgage. They refinanced a few times over the years and it worked out fine. I don't think they lost any sleep over the day to day valuation of their house because it was their home.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Absolutely we just got news the 6400 the IRS insisted we owed them was a mistake on their part. Damn that wore me down. I knew we were right. What a relief but talk about incompetent. Actually got a refund of 534 to boot

Talking to my cpa/tax attorney: Tons of tax “mistakes” and issues this year at the state and fed level. Total incompetence. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Talking to my cpa/tax attorney: Tons of tax “mistakes” and issues this year at the state and fed level. Total incompetence. 

I'm hesitating to do my taxes ... certain econ programs were suspended during the 2021, and I was relying - ill advisingly so probably ... - on interest paid to save me from owing... Not sure what the arithmetic will be now. 

[weathafella]

Speaking of taxes I brought our stuff to a new accountant last week.  Come to subsequently find out he’s under indictment.  Picked it all up and starting from scratch.  About 40 years ago this happened and every file in the office got the line by line audit.  Not risking that nightmare again!

New guy appointment next week and he appears clean.

 

[PhineasC]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Speaking of taxes I brought our stuff to a new accountant last week.  Come to subsequently find out he’s under indictment.  Picked it all up and starting from scratch.  About 40 years ago this happened and every file in the office got the line by line audit.  Not risking that nightmare again!

New guy appointment next week and he appears clean.

 

LOL gotta hate when that happens! 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Do you ever get the feeling everything involving the government is now a battle and their default position is to destroy you and you need to fight to survive? Because it often feels that way to me. Something has changed. The bureaucratic silliness was always there but now there is something malicious and uncaring about it.

edit: this is not meant to be a political post. I am not insinuating this is a recent issue related to any election. It just seems to be a reflection of our increasingly more anti-social and repressive/regressive/closed society. 

I think it’s just incompetence for the most part. Her benefits took almost a month to kick in, so we were trying to get that money that she was owed. Someone made a mistake, and clicked the wrong “button” or whatever, and instead of getting a check for what we missed we get a demand letter saying we owe 15k in overpayment immediately.

Of course, as is the case now, it took hours and hours to get ahold of an actual person, who was probably hired 10 minutes ago, and didn’t know what to do. And when it’s escalated to a supervisor, they admit they know what happened, but there is nothing they can do to fix it.

it’s a pretty helpless feeling. We had to fight to prove the mistake they made was actually their mistake. Over a year later, and threats of tax intercepts and the whole lot, it got worked out, but not before it caused us a ton of grief.

My wife is just happy it’s over, and understandably so, but I told her now that this is settled we should circle back and try to recover that month of payments she’s entitled too. Now I’m pissed off and want to get every penny we are due.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

It's a tough call. On the one hand, home prices are quite elevated by historical standards. There is a risk of ending up underwater, at least for a time, if the economy really tanks. If you have a long time horizon and view your home as a shelter and not as a speculative asset, perhaps you won't care that much? If on the other hand you're looking to cash out for a profit in a few years and upgrade to a bigger home, well, there's risk in that. I can't really predict the course of interest rates or inflation, but my guess is that because so much debt has been created in the last decade, the economy will be much more sensitive to small increases in rates. I don't think we're going to see a 1980s style Fed funds rate. Anything much above 3 or 4% would probably cause a significant deflationary event.

I'll just add that my folks bought their home in 1981 when the Fed was last fighting inflation. The economy was terrible and they were paying something like 18% on their mortgage. They refinanced a few times over the years and it worked out fine. I don't think they lost any sleep over the day to day valuation of their house because it was their home.

My house is “valued” at over 600k right now, and we owe 265k on it. So even if housing prices tank, it’s pretty unlikely we would be underwater.

Regardless, we are pretty happy to stay here for the long haul. I’m happy to just have the mortgage taken out every month. Set it and forget it.

[Angus]

3 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Talking to my cpa/tax attorney: Tons of tax “mistakes” and issues this year at the state and fed level. Total incompetence. 

The IRS and any state department of revenue is a government bureaucracy by definition but I think we need to differentiate between 'incompetence' and purposely underfunded by Congress. Not something I follow closely but I believe the IRS software is still programmed in Fortran or Cobalt and I'd estimate the average age of a programmer with competency in those languages to be be in late 60's.

I did a quick search and found this article - https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/congress-needs-to-take-two-steps-to-fund-the-irs-for-the-short-and-long-term

this is similar to the PPP programs and the underfunded unemployment benefit software most if not all states run. Note: believe a few states that have tried to update have had failures due to project management.

I have had some recent dealings with the IRS and although not fast, the outcome was satisfactory and the people I dealt with were very professional and competent.

Here is a quick excerpt from another article I found via a search

The IRS manages IT systems running hundreds of thousands of lines of code written in a programming language few developers bother to learn anymore: COBOL. In response to unspecified “national security demands,” the agency is looking for cybersecurity tools designed to work with these aged systems.

The federal tax collector runs some of the oldest IT systems in government, including the 60-plus-year-old Individual Master File system that intakes and processes individual tax returns. While that system runs on Assembly, many of IRS’ other systems run on a slightly younger programming language: the common business-oriented language, or COBOL.

[ma blizzard]

fortran?!?

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My house is “valued” at over 600k right now, and we owe 265k on it. So even if housing prices tank, it’s pretty unlikely we would be underwater.

Regardless, we are pretty happy to stay here for the long haul. I’m happy to just have the mortgage taken out every month. Set it and forget it.

That's cool; you've built some nice equity. When did you buy? You surely didn't know it at the time, but you were lucky to time your purchase before valuations really went nuts in all the Boston suburbs. My brother lucked out too. Paid 400k for his place four years ago, which is now valued at 725k. This is ridiculous appreciation and totally unsustainable and he knows it, but it gave him a chuckle.

Nor'easter is in a different spot, considering entering the market now with already extreme prices, the prospect of rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs and a softening economy. Is it any wonder why home buyer sentiment is at multi-decade lows? Given that prices have gone up much much faster than wages, your average buyer right now is in many cases stretching their means to get a house--especially since they are often competing against large private equity firms that can borrow dirt cheap and put in cash bids above offer. A lot of folks buying now could potentially find themselves in trouble if the economy tanks.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's cool; you've built some nice equity. When did you buy? You surely didn't know it at the time, but you were lucky to time your purchase before valuations really went nuts in all the Boston suburbs. My brother lucked out too. Paid 400k for his place four years ago, which is now valued at 725k. This is ridiculous appreciation and totally unsustainable and he knows it, but it gave him a chuckle.

Nor'easter is in a different spot, considering entering the market now with already extreme prices, the prospect of rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs and a softening economy. Is it any wonder why home buyer sentiment is at multi-decade lows? Given that prices have gone up much much faster than wages, your average buyer right now is in many cases stretching their means to get a house--especially since they are often competing against large private equity firms that can borrow dirt cheap and put in cash bids above offer. A lot of folks buying now could potentially find themselves in trouble if the economy tanks.

Right place, right time in my case for sure. We bought in March 2019. Paid 405k…. And the value of the house has skyrocketed ever since. A couple houses on my street have sold in the last year. First house on my street had an open house in October. 18 offers by that evening, all over asking. It’s insane.

My wife and I could never afford to buy now , so we consider ourselves very fortunate 

[Hoth]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right place, right time in my case for sure. We bought in March 2019. Paid 405k…. And the value of the house has skyrocketed ever since. A couple houses on my street have sold in the last year. First house on my street had an open house in October. 18 offers by that evening, all over asking. It’s insane.

My wife and I could never afford to buy now , so we consider ourselves very fortunate 

Yeah, congrats. I'm glad you recognize that's insane. I mean that's an unreal return on equity for that asset class with a three year holding period. Jesus. I doubt we saw stuff like that even in 2005-2006.

[WhitinsvilleWX]

14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's cool; you've built some nice equity. When did you buy? You surely didn't know it at the time, but you were lucky to time your purchase before valuations really went nuts in all the Boston suburbs. My brother lucked out too. Paid 400k for his place four years ago, which is now valued at 725k. This is ridiculous appreciation and totally unsustainable and he knows it, but it gave him a chuckle.

Nor'easter is in a different spot, considering entering the market now with already extreme prices, the prospect of rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs and a softening economy. Is it any wonder why home buyer sentiment is at multi-decade lows? Given that prices have gone up much much faster than wages, your average buyer right now is in many cases stretching their means to get a house--especially since they are often competing against large private equity firms that can borrow dirt cheap and put in cash bids above offer. A lot of folks buying now could potentially find themselves in trouble if the economy tanks.

I bought mine in 2008 right during the bust. Paid 450. Got the mortgage down to 175. I’ll pay it off in -5 more. House up the street is almost like mine and on the market. They want 730 and will most likely get it.

[NorEastermass128]

15 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's cool; you've built some nice equity. When did you buy? You surely didn't know it at the time, but you were lucky to time your purchase before valuations really went nuts in all the Boston suburbs. My brother lucked out too. Paid 400k for his place four years ago, which is now valued at 725k. This is ridiculous appreciation and totally unsustainable and he knows it, but it gave him a chuckle.

Nor'easter is in a different spot, considering entering the market now with already extreme prices, the prospect of rising interest rates increasing borrowing costs and a softening economy. Is it any wonder why home buyer sentiment is at multi-decade lows? Given that prices have gone up much much faster than wages, your average buyer right now is in many cases stretching their means to get a house--especially since they are often competing against large private equity firms that can borrow dirt cheap and put in cash bids above offer. A lot of folks buying now could potentially find themselves in trouble if the economy tanks.

Yup. It’s difficult to bid on houses sometimes $100-130k more than the current owner paid just 18-24 months ago in some instances. Of course, my bids have been unsuccessful. Competing with cash buyers in the $450-500k range is difficult to say the least. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

First day at work in almost 2 years with no mask. It was awesome. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yup. It’s difficult to bid on houses sometimes $100-130k more than the current owner paid just 18-24 months ago in some instances. Of course, my bids have been unsuccessful. Competing with cash buyers in the $450-500k range is difficult to say the least. 

Yeah, I mean if you're not in a huge rush, it may be worth while waiting for things to cool off a bit. It has been totally insane, as the above examples testify to.

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I mean if you're not in a huge rush, it may be worth while waiting for things to cool off a bit. It has been totally insane, as the above examples testify to.

Unlike my brother who bought his first home with a baby on the way, I’m not in a rush. We’ll see how it goes. Inventory is extremely low, so it may be a no choice, no decision deal anyway until the market cools some. 

[WhitinsvilleWX]

9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Yup. It’s difficult to bid on houses sometimes $100-130k more than the current owner paid just 18-24 months ago in some instances. Of course, my bids have been unsuccessful. Competing with cash buyers in the $450-500k range is difficult to say the least. 

It’ll come down. I wouldn’t be a buyer at these prices. You’ll be stuck underwater like people were that bought into a high housing market 14-15 years ago. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I thought there must be some sort of connection there ….

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/14/former-us-ambassador-marie-yovanovitch-trump-emboldened-putin-ukraine-newday-berman-vpx.cnn
 

I mean who didn’t, right -

May be proven less than significantly  instrumental but the idea had crossed the mind …

 

[NorEastermass128]

22 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I wonder if we can get oil back down below $100/barrel this week?  

$97 for WTI Crude 22 hours later. Let’s keep this up and then we can drop average gas prices back below $4/gallon. 

[PowderBeard]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

$97 for WTI Crude 22 hours later. Let’s keep this up and then we can drop average gas prices back below $4/gallon. 

Several places around here are already below $4. I actually took the chip out of my truck to enable the V4/AFM system and average an extra 5-6 MPG, worth it to just check the oil level more regularly.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Saw my first drop in a gas station price in quite a while this morning...

I doubt they return to the levels of even a year ago for a while, but every bit helps.

[SouthCoastMA]

Home heating oil was $5.19 /gal as recently as Sunday down here. I'm due for a fill soon..so hopefully we can get that in the low to mid 4's again soon.