Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

What are Putin’s two favorite songs? 
 

Putin on the Ritz

Crimea River. 
 

 

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The US should go in and take all the good parts of Russia if that’s the case, especially since they are tied up in another conflict at the moment…… (kidding of course).

Russia has been a boil on the world's ass for a century. Quite frankly, if Putin really starts of some shit and we have to go over there, I would not grieve to see Russia carved up into a bunch of small democratic states. I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic groups who wouldn't mind self-governance. Certainly folks in the eastern part of the country have expressed such feelings at times.

[IowaStorm05]

12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm with you there, but these things are out of our control. All it would take is a miscalculation on either side, and we're all swept in a great cataclysm of our age. It really has amazed me how recent years roughly parallel the '30s. Starting with the Financial Crisis. There's your 1929. We managed to avoid a full-blown depression in '08, but at a great cost, which sowed discord and wealth inequality and forged a path forward for populist, authoritarian leaders across the globe. We see seething internal disension, much like the '30s. People forget that Hoover had the National Guard rout 20,000 starving veterans with bayonets on the National Mall back then. As many in the U.S. and Britain during the '30s idolized Hitler as a model for strong leadership, many Americans in both the GOP and far left of the Democratic Party seem to like or at least empathize with Putin. Strange how all that was old is new again. And worrisome.

I had much more naive and optimistic outlook about the nature of the world and humans at the turn of the century when I was a kid. 

NOW I am convinced that, after armchair study of chimpanzees, that humans are essentially a patriarchal society who will always manage to place a very powerful King. Unlike chimps, humans are a little bit closer to neutral in this matter, and will occasionally manage democratic strategy and even more rarely, economic prosperity encompassing the majority of the population. 

I have contemplated the grim idea that the mid to late 20th century in United States prosperity was an anomaly. Abject poverty, inability to own property and iron-fisted autocrats is what humans seem to gravitate to when all things are equal.

Democratic society might be struggling to remain in place because humans are, by their nature, not good at managing it. What happens is things start getting messy and we don't have the genetic capacity to keep a democratic government stable for long periods. When things do get hairy, it creates a chasm for some new aggressive autocrat to come out of the woodwork.

It scares the **** out of me, because with the advent of modern technology and the ability for the ones in power to monitor the entirety of a populace inside of their own homes, who the hell knows what is possible. Because the evolution of that technology has been gradual, it is not alarming people and at most, people complain passively on their blog. 

I am not a very political person. I don't take many sides outside of modest benevolent goodwill.

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I had much more naive and optimistic outlook about the nature of the world and humans at the turn of the century when I was a kid. 

NOW I am convinced that, after armchair study of chimpanzees, that humans are essentially a patriarchal society who will always manage to place a very powerful King. Unlike chimps, humans are a little bit closer to neutral in this matter, and will occasionally manage democratic strategy and even more rarely, economic prosperity encompassing the majority of the population. 

I have contemplated the grim idea that the mid to late 20th century in United States prosperity was an anomaly. Abject poverty, inability to own property and iron-fisted autocrats is what humans seem to gravitate to when all things are equal.

Democratic society might be struggling to remain in place because humans are, by their nature, not good at managing it. What happens is things start getting messy and we don't have the genetic capacity to keep a democratic government stable for long periods. When things do get hairy, it creates a chasm for some new aggressive autocrat to come out of the woodwork.

Absolutely. Our Founders operated under the assumption that humans are inherently weak and power-seeking and therefore tried to separate powers and put in legal protections as much as possible to prevent the new nation from slipping into absolutism. But they also believed that their experiment was destined to fail eventually, as power has a way of creeping into areas it originally had no claim to. One of my ancestors attended the Philadelphia Convention to dream up the Constitution and wound up not signing the document initially because he feared having too much power in a single executive officer. He wanted three since it smacked less of monarchy. But yes, humans are inherently competitive, territorial, covetous creatures, which is dangerous when annealed to higher intelligence.

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Russia has been a boil on the world's ass for a century. Quite frankly, if Putin really starts of some shit and we have to go over there, I would not grieve to see Russia carved up into a bunch of small democratic states. I'm sure there are plenty of ethnic groups who wouldn't mind self-governance. Certainly folks in the eastern part of the country have expressed such feelings at times.

They’d have no compunctions about scorching the Earth well before that would ever be realized. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

They’d have no compunctions about scorching the Earth well before that would ever be realized. 

Oh yeah, zero doubt about that.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Turkey blocked Russian access to the Black Sea. That's a big step for them. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Absolutely. Our Founders operated under the assumption that humans are inherently weak and power-seeking and therefore tried to separate powers and put in legal protections as much as possible to prevent the new nation from slipping into absolutism. But they also believed that their experiment was destined to fail eventually, as power has a way of creeping into areas it originally had no claim to. One of my ancestors attended the Philadelphia Convention to dream up the Constitution and wound up not signing the document initially because he feared having too much power in a single executive officer. He wanted three since it smacked less of monarchy. But yes, humans are inherently competitive, territorial, covetous creatures, which is dangerous when annealed to higher intelligence.

 

We are merely animals operating the greatest WMD of all: the human brain

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

 But yes, humans are inherently competitive, territorial, covetous creatures, which is dangerous when annealed to higher intelligence.

As far as I know, we are one of the only species, that intentionally pollutes it's own drinking water and food supplies.

[weatherwiz]

Where in the heck did all the yearly snowfall records go?

Using http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ 

but there are some massive differences for some stations that I had written down like 10-years ago. I'm sure too part of it is isn't snowfall record technically July 1 - June 30? 

For example, I had snowfall records written down for ALB which went back to 1883-1884 but here starts 1939-1940

 

[powderfreak]

The no fly-zone stuff is a dangerous game. You can’t have American and Russian fighter jets taunting each other.

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

Saw this one yesterday. Still cracks me up:

Did Sweden get the anti-tank weapons from IKEA?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The no fly-zone stuff is a dangerous game. You can’t have American and Russian fighter jets taunting each other.

Poland giving Ukraine 2 dozen fighter jets is a dangerous game, Turkey blocking access to the Black Sea is a dangerous game, Finland shipping weapons to Ukraine is a dangerous game.  All of it will make Putin feel a little more isolated and cornered and desperate. 

[IowaStorm05]

28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

As far as I know, we are one of the only species, that intentionally pollutes it's own drinking water and food supplies.

I am of the belief we are actually responsible for an ongoing mass extinction. As much as I love people, we have manipulated the hell out of the face of the earth, creating some strange strange stuff out of the elements in the soil.

Me thinks that once you cause enough puzzle pieces of the ecosystem to get wet and warped, you would end up with trouble farming.

[mreaves]

I haven’t read the whole thing but this seems to be a pretty even handed assessment of what’s gone on so far. 
 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2022

Edit: Thanks to @A Moonlit Sky for the original link to this. 

[mreaves]

25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Poland giving Ukraine 2 dozen fighter jets is a dangerous game, Turkey blocking access to the Black Sea is a dangerous game, Finland shipping weapons to Ukraine is a dangerous game.  All of it will make Putin feel a little more isolated and cornered and desperate. 

I think it’s a game they’re forced to play though. It’s probably too late for Ukraine but they can’t afford to let Putin think it’s going to be easy to roll the rest of them. 

[mreaves]

40 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The no fly-zone stuff is a dangerous game. You can’t have American and Russian fighter jets taunting each other.

The White House squashed that pretty much as soon as Zelensky suggested it. 
https://www.businessinsider.com/psaki-rules-out-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-2022-2?amp

[IowaStorm05]

Did Covid cases really drop precipitously, or is it just that everybody has their hands on at home test kits? My mom fell ill today with chills and really bad aches. We live in close quarters. I've never had it, I was negative last month and actually, oddly, hallucinated getting sick.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Turkey blocked Russian access to the Black Sea. That's a big step for them. 

Apparently they are treaty-bound to do so.

Kind of reminds me of the lead-up to WWI where every nation had an ironclad treaty to follow and the dominos rapidly fell into a general war because every country was just "following the treaties."

[PhineasC]

I hope everyone can see we are headed back into a multipolar world. The US can can longer dictate terms around the world as it could in the past. The post-WWII peace regime is breaking down. Threats are going to emerge from near-peer adversaries and we can't simply stamp them out by sending a delegation as we did in the past.

We need to adjust. 

This has been a huge wake-up call to Europe. I don't think they will cling even more to the US after this. They will want to seek their own security arrangements.

It's a watershed moment, IMO.

[PhineasC]

I really think a Chinese confrontation over Taiwan is coming soon, and it will finally reveal our weakness and lack of resolve to really close and fight to the end to protect our global interests. 

I have to think there is a growing hardliner faction in the Chinese politburo that wants to take Taiwan now.

[Lava Rock]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The no fly-zone stuff is a dangerous game. You can’t have American and Russian fighter jets taunting each other.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I hope everyone can see we are headed back into a multipolar world. The US can can longer dictate terms around the world as it could in the past. The post-WWII peace regime is breaking down. Threats are going to emerge from near-peer adversaries and we can't simply stamp them out by sending a delegation as we did in the past.

We need to adjust. 

This has been a huge wake-up call to Europe. I don't think they will cling even more to the US after this. They will want to seek their own security arrangements.

It's a watershed moment, IMO.

They should. They've been piggy-backing on our defensive umbrella for decades and need to be able to defend themselves. I was heartened to see Germany make such an about face the other day.

[Hoth]

8 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I really think a Chinese confrontation over Taiwan is coming soon, and it will finally reveal our weakness and lack of resolve to really close and fight to the end to protect our global interests. 

I have to think there is a growing hardliner faction in the Chinese politburo that wants to take Taiwan now.

I assumed that has been the Chinese plan for some time, probably in coordination with Russia. Open a war on two fronts. I was interested that some in Japan are openly calling to host U.S. nukes in the country this morning. So far I don't think it's getting much traction--totally contrary to their constitution since WWII--but watch that change if China does start menacing its neighbors.

[HoarfrostHubb]

One thing about China is that they really see the long term game... like generational.  They will do things at their own pace for sure but this will speed it up

[mreaves]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I assumed that has been the Chinese plan for some time, probably in coordination with Russia. Open a war on two fronts. I was interested that some in Japan are openly calling to host U.S. nukes in the country this morning. So far I don't think it's getting much traction--totally contrary to their constitution since WWII--but watch that change if China does start menacing its neighbors.

Do you think China is holding back so they can learn what the global reaction is and then build systems to isolate themselves?

[snowman21]

25 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I assumed that has been the Chinese plan for some time, probably in coordination with Russia. Open a war on two fronts. I was interested that some in Japan are openly calling to host U.S. nukes in the country this morning. So far I don't think it's getting much traction--totally contrary to their constitution since WWII--but watch that change if China does start menacing its neighbors.

I think we're going to have another nuclear arms race. Every country watching this realizes at the end of the day it's everyone for themselves, and nukes are the great equalizer.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Bad news out of Kharkiv. Their town square was shelled with several Civilian casualties.

[Hoth]

32 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Do you think China is holding back so they can learn what the global reaction is and then build systems to isolate themselves?

Absolutely. They are definitely letting Russia test the waters. They may even sit back initially if we end up at war with Russia. Let us spill our guts in eastern Europe and then hit Taiwan when we don't have the will to stop them.

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I think we're going to have another nuclear arms race. Every country watching this realizes at the end of the day it's everyone for themselves, and nukes are the great equalizer.

how does that work if everyone is dead? I just don't get the threat and/or use of such weapons. I get that it can be a deterrent for awhile, but it just seems at some point the proverbial little boy cried wolf too many times and someone is just going to push the button.