Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter

[PhineasC]

Trying to take out an ICBM is like trying to hit a fastball coming at you with a thrown pencil. SLBMs are even worse because you don't even get the advantage of knowing the launch sites before hand. A sub can just launch from anywhere it wants. Anyway, MAD works for these and other reasons.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So much beer talk in here 

You fit right in then.

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think the threat of nuclear war was much closer at times during the Cold War. US and Soviet forces in some cases were directly shooting at each other in the skies over Korea and Vietnam, for example. The Cuban Missile Crisis was viewed as an existential threat by the US at the time, not unlike how the Russians supposedly feel about Ukraine joining NATO.

People running around scared that Putin will nuke us is pretty much exactly why he made those threats. In his mind, it strengthens his position at the bargaining table. Ukraine agrees to a "peace deal" and the nuclear threats ease, is the concept. That and the oil are the two real bargaining chips Russia has with the West. Kim does the same thing with his nukes/missile launches to gain concessions from the West. Old play from the book.

In principle ...I agree.  We can make up all kind of completely sane plausibility to explain his audacity - but... he's persisting in doing this, with 0 collateral alias of foreign sovereignty.    It begins to stress the believability in worldly competence, when there can be no logistical outcome where this ends well for he and his cohorts ... let alone the incalculable suffering that he's about to plunge the civility he "supposedly" protects, into. 

Also, I don't believe this is really the same as two super powers saber rattling, as though their thumbs hovering over dialed in launch codes.

It is not entirely clear whether this is more like a rogue despot, hell-bent and most dauntingly, incorrigibly, unhinged.  This may not be like a stately act of War powers declared in the Kremlin.  In fact... "policy" in that sovereignty has increasingly appeared to be window dressed as process, when in reality it may have been dictatorial - of the former's charge.

People ( not you per se ..in general ) keep looking at this rationally. 

We may be dealing with psychosis ... perhaps group psychosis - like how the 3rd Reich was born...

psychosis != rationale  ...time to start thinking outside the box.

 

 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In principle ...I agree.  We can make up all kind of completely sane plausibility to explain his audacity - but... he's persisting in doing this, with 0 collateral alias of foreign sovereignty.    It begins to stress the believability in worldly competence, when there can be no logistical outcome where this ends well for he and his cohorts ... let alone the incalculable suffering that he's about to plunge the civility he "supposedly" protects, into. 

Also, I don't believe this is really the same as two super powers saber rattling, as though their thumbs hovering over dialed in launch codes.

It is not entirely clear whether this is more like a rogue despot, hell-bent and most dauntingly, incorrigibly, unhinged.  This may not be like a stately act of War powers declared in the Kremlin.  In fact... "policy" in that sovereignty has increasingly appeared to be window dressed as process, when in reality it may have been dictatorial - of the former's charge.

People ( not you per se ..in general ) keep looking at this rationally. 

We may be dealing with psychosis ... perhaps group psychosis - like how the 3rd Reich was born...

psychosis != rationale  ...time to start thinking outside the box.

 

 

Kim Jong Un does this same kind of thing all the time. He's always putting the military on "super double ultimate high alert" to be "ready for immediate war" at his command. It's just something these clowns do. Russia is obviously a much bigger threat than NK, but I think the mentality is kind of the same. It's one of the few ways these tinpot Napoleons can lash out at the West.

[CoastalWx]

Put in Sylvester Stallone. He ended the cold war with this amazing speech in Rocky IV.

 

 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Then again you would think intel and other military experts would already know this so who knows? 

Their strategy is from the Soviet playbook, which means the Ukrainians should be familiar with it. Russia on paper is a vastly superior force and could probably reduce every city and village to rubble with bombers in a week unless the EU sends in some serious anti-aircraft materiel. Never underestimate the capacity of a highly motivated native populace to resist though. See Vietnam or Afghanistan for analogs.  There are probably a few people alive in Ukraine who remember 10 million of their countrymen starving to death in the 1930s famines under Stalin's vicious rule, and there are certainly plenty who still remember Nazi occupation. These people have been hammered hard for a century and truly value their freedom.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Kim Jong Un does this same kind of thing all the time. He's always putting the military on "super double ultimate high alert" to be "ready for immediate war" at his command. It's just something these clowns do. Russia is obviously a much bigger threat than NK, but I think the mentality is kind of the same. It's one of the few ways these tinpot Napoleons can lash out at the West.

That's funny ...  "super double ultimate high alert"

kinda like 'extra double top secret probation '

But there is one difference here between Kim Jong Un-capable, and that is the Russia is capable. And has already committed to aggression not just rhetoric

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Someone should get to work on Putin a bullet onto Vladimir's head.

Given that all the oligarchs that support him have had their yachts and villas and funds seized, you can bet there is more than a little grumbling behind the scenes. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Putin catches a bullet. 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Given that all the oligarchs that support him have had their yachts and villas and funds seized, you can bet there is more than a little grumbling behind the scenes. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Putin catches a bullet. 

I'm not sure.  Cagey ex-KGB guy must have thought about all the possibilities

[CoastalWx]

What are Putin’s two favorite songs? 
 

Putin on the Ritz

Crimea River. 
 

 

[Hoth]

44 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Trying to take out an ICBM is like trying to hit a fastball coming at you with a thrown pencil. SLBMs are even worse because you don't even get the advantage of knowing the launch sites before hand. A sub can just launch from anywhere it wants. Anyway, MAD works for these and other reasons.

Modern missiles are even more difficult because they can alter their reentry vector. Really it’s better to avoid a launch at than than rely on interceptors. 

[Hoth]

19 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm not sure.  Cagey ex-KGB guy must have thought about all the possibilities

lol, maybe that's why he's always sitting like 50 feet from everyone else at the table. He can get the drop on them. All dictators are paranoid about the people around them. Stalin would purge his staff periodically. Putin's definitely not dumb, but in a situation like this you can't really run Monte Carlo simulations of all the outcomes. He can't possibly have expected a lot of the stuff that's been happening, which is why he's nuclear saber-rattling. It's coming from a place of weakness, not strength in my opinion.

[Hoth]

Saw this one yesterday. Still cracks me up:

[Typhoon Tip]

See …. again I don’t think cornering an unhinged despot is the right approach here. 
 

“(CNN) Turkey has officially labeled Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war and says it will restrict some warships from passing through key waterways, in a move that experts said could potentially hinder some of Moscow's military activities in the region.”

… granted it is CNN so-

But I dunno. I guess I may be in the minority here. I just think once you’ve cross into the realm of the unhinged … there is either a finality already predetermined and set into motion, or at best this situation can be is dangerously unpredictable. 
 

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

See …. again I don’t think cornering an unhinged despot is the right approach here. 
 

“(CNN) Turkey has officially labeled Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a war and says it will restrict some warships from passing through key waterways, in a move that experts said could potentially hinder some of Moscow's military activities in the region.”

… granted it is CNN so-

But I dunno. I guess I may be in the minority here. I just think once you’ve cross into the realm of the unhinged … there is either a finality already predetermined and set into motion, or at best this situation can be is dangerously unpredictable. 
 

There is talk of a no-fly zone over Ukraine which to me would be the real "red line" where the risk of this escalating into WWIII actually becomes relevant. This action by Turkey is a step towards that.

[IowaStorm05]

I can't really understand the mindset of Putin. Russia as it is, is a HUGE country full of vast untainted and beautiful lands, and the people have a rich and interesting heritage and culture. If the dash cam videos I have seen are any indication, the Russian's peoples lives seem to have improved in the last few decades. 

I have always had hopes on Russia becoming a great friend. I feel like cooperative friendships can get you way further. 

I feel like people get driven into this behavior out of fear, and I don't know if it is necessary because there are probably tons of leaders in the West who would like to cultivate a relationship with Russia, if for no other reason than the fact that it would theoretically yield prosperity for all parties involved.

I am pretty upset that they invaded. I figured it was going to happen, but I was holding on to hope that it would not happen and I was hoping there would be a surprise resolution crafted.

[mreaves]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is talk of a no-fly zone over Ukraine which to me would be the real "red line" where the risk of this escalating into WWIII actually becomes relevant. This action by Turkey is a step towards that.

Yeah, that doesn’t seem to be the greatest move. I haven’t seen it reported by anyone though. 

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

There is talk of a no-fly zone over Ukraine which to me would be the real "red line" where the risk of this escalating into WWIII actually becomes relevant. This action by Turkey is a step towards that.

 

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Yeah, that doesn’t seem to be the greatest move. I haven’t seen it reported by anyone though. 

Lol. As soon as I posted that I went to the Reuters app and that was the story at the top of the page. 

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

Lol. As soon as I posted that I went to the Reuters app and that was the story at the top of the page. 

If the US actually does that I think it’ll be fair to ask if we have gone as mad as Putin. 

[IowaStorm05]

This stuff is pretty upsetting to me. The idea of escalation into world war with the weapons that people have right now is just downright disturbing to me. 

I guess though, if 1/2 of the world population went extinct, it would give other species like Chimpanzees a chance to recover so at least there is that? 

It is disturbing to me

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I can't really understand the mindset of Putin. Russia as it is, is a HUGE country full of vast untainted and beautiful lands, and the people have a rich and interesting heritage and culture. If the dash cam videos I have seen are any indication, the Russian's peoples lives seem to have improved in the last few decades. 

I have always had hopes on Russia becoming a great friend. I feel like cooperative friendships can get you way further. 

I feel like people get driven into this behavior out of fear, and I don't know if it is necessary because there are probably tons of leaders in the West who would like to cultivate a relationship with Russia, if for no other reason than the fact that it would theoretically yield prosperity for all parties involved.

I am pretty upset that they invaded. I figured it was going to happen, but I was holding on to hope that it would not happen and I was hoping there would be a surprise resolution crafted.

Much as Hitler's expansionism started with the goal of reuniting Germanic peoples under one national banner, and then creating lebensraum in the East for them, Putin seems bent on redrawing modern borders to conform with the old Russian Empire.

[IowaStorm05]

Just now, Hoth said:

Much as Hitler's expansionism started with the goal of reuniting Germanic peoples under one national banner, and then creating lebensraum in the East for them, Putin seems bent on redrawing modern borders to conform with the old Russian Empire.

But you can't just do that. These nations have evolved into their own peoples. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This stuff is pretty upsetting to me. The idea of escalation into world war with the weapons that people have right now is just downright disturbing to me. 

I guess though, if 1/2 of the world population went extinct, it would give other species like Chimpanzees a chance to recover so at least there is that? 

It is disturbing to me

If we completely blew the tits off the world and humans disappeared, the world would still be teeming with life in a century or two.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

But you can't just do that. These nations have evolved into their own peoples. 

Putin and Lavrov have repeatedly asserted that you can. They've said several times that borders change over time. The modern notion that national borders are static from now on is not part of their way of thinking. And, by the way, you can bet that Xi Jinping shares that sensibility. The world is rapidly becoming a very dangerous place.

[IowaStorm05]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Putin and Lavrov have repeatedly asserted that you can. They've said several times that borders change over time. The modern notion that national borders are static from now on is not part of their way of thinking. And, by the way, you can bet that Xi Jinping shares that sensibility. The world is rapidly becoming a very dangerous place.

I came across energies that are involved in fame, power and ultra wealth. I did not like the energies, and I ran for the hills. When I did that, the devil punished me, just like in the song Dark Horse by Katy Perry. All of my friends and influence evaporated in an instant to an extent that rendered me minimum wage for life. 

I am a simple guy who loves simple things. I am not the kind of guy who feels a need to assert control on places that are no longer associated with me. 

I think the world is abraisive and troubling enough as it is. I don't want it to get worse than it already is. 

 

[mreaves]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

If the US actually does that I think it’ll be fair to ask if we have gone as mad as Putin. 

It’s only Zelensky calling for one to be established only to be immediately shot down by Jen Psaki. (Shot down, see what I did there? )

[HoarfrostHubb]

Will Russia want to claim Alaska at some point?   As well as portions of California (which I find weird). 

Those were both part of Russia at one point

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

43 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Putin and Lavrov have repeatedly asserted that you can. They've said several times that borders change over time. The modern notion that national borders are static from now on is not part of their way of thinking. And, by the way, you can bet that Xi Jinping shares that sensibility. The world is rapidly becoming a very dangerous place.

The US should go in and take all the good parts of Russia if that’s the case, especially since they are tied up in another conflict at the moment…… (kidding of course).

[Hoth]

25 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I think the world is abraisive and troubling enough as it is. I don't want it to get worse than it already is. 

 

I'm with you there, but these things are out of our control. All it would take is a miscalculation on either side, and we're all swept in a great cataclysm of our age. It really has amazed me how recent years roughly parallel the '30s. Starting with the Financial Crisis. There's your 1929. We managed to avoid a full-blown depression in '08, but at a great cost, which sowed discord and wealth inequality and forged a path forward for populist, authoritarian leaders across the globe. We see seething internal disension, much like the '30s. People forget that Hoover had the National Guard rout 20,000 starving veterans with bayonets on the National Mall back then. As many in the U.S. and Britain during the '30s idolized Hitler as a model for strong leadership, many Americans in both the GOP and far left of the Democratic Party seem to like or at least empathize with Putin. Strange how all that was old is new again. And worrisome.

[IowaStorm05]

49 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Putin and Lavrov have repeatedly asserted that you can. They've said several times that borders change over time. The modern notion that national borders are static from now on is not part of their way of thinking. And, by the way, you can bet that Xi Jinping shares that sensibility. The world is rapidly becoming a very dangerous place.

What's funny about war is how religion fits into it. A lot of nations throughout history have devout religious identity, but somehow, nations manage to magically fit war into their portfolio of passable actions when it comes time to go take a piece of territory they want. This behavior is as old as time, throughout history. And nobody ever really explains how that works out.