Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter

[PhineasC]

I am not sure how I am "repeating Russian propaganda" when the facts on the ground are that Putin isn't stopping and seems completely unconcerned with US/EU sanctions and other moves such as SWIFT denial. I mean, clearly he knew these options were on the table.

I'm sorry if I am busting the market narrative that this is WWIII that you want to have play out so you can make some bucks.

The US/EU need to look long and hard at why they were completely powerless to stop this. I don't think I'm trolling to say that.

If you guys want to envision Russia losing and Ukrainian patriots stringing Putin up outside the Kremlin, don't let me stop you. Twitter and Reddit are probably predicting that.

[monadnocks]

2 hours ago, Hoth said:

I’m going to make another argument. Russia is paranoid because it has no natural geographic features to provide a defense bulwark on its western border. It’s a lot of flat plains. This has left them vulnerable to invasion from the west over the centuries. Putin wants at the least a buffer of friendly nations on his flank to put some distance between himself and the West. The farce in this, the paranoid delusion, is the idea that Western Europe has any designs on taking over Russia. If he can’t have a bunch of Belaruses, clearly he’s okay with taking free countries by force and coercing them into supporting Russia. 

That works too. Putin's history, the history of being overrun., etc.

[NorEastermass128]

I’m hopeful that the Ukrainians put up a good fight and hold off the Russians in the immediate term. Short and medium term seem more precarious. Long term, any puppet regime will eventually be ousted. Putin is nearing 70. We’re in the last decade of his reign. 

[weathafella]

19 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I’m hopeful that the Ukrainians put up a good fight and hold off the Russians in the immediate term. Short and medium term seem more precarious. Long term, any puppet regime will eventually be ousted. Putin is nearing 70. We’re in the last decade of his reign. 

Mugabe.  Many other examples.  I don’t think Putin ages out so much as eventually losing the support of Russians.  The next major move will be telling.

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

Yup, the IL-76s are vulnerable. At least 2 down already and seeing reports of some sort of paratrooper disaster around Odessa tonight.

It's amazing they stay airwothy as it is. I'm suprised they're even using them at this stage

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Putin obviously has future plans. Take Ukraine, force German Italy to lay low cuz he now has the Ukraine pipeline that feeds them. Take the Balkans and put the USSR back together.  He is taking advantage of feckless leaders and the rush to green energy in Germany which has failed them. 

Well said. I can't remember a time when we've had such a large number of spineless, weak, bought and paid for excuses of world "leaders".  It's really shocking, moreso that so many are surprised Putin took this action now. The weakness being baked into so many governments is crazy

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Of course. There is a great documentary on netflix about Ukrainians, Poles, and other neighboring countries participating in the murders.

The old kill or be killed unfortunately. The regrets must have been monumental X infinity after the war by many

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Mugabe.  Many other examples.  I don’t think Putin ages out so much as eventually losing the support of Russians.  The next major move will be telling.

Support currently in Russia for this appears tepid at best. I don’t think he really cares.

[PowderBeard]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Russia has one hand behind its back and was outside Kiev in like 24 hours.

There is a great line in the Chernobyl mini-series from Gorbachev that "the Soviet Union's power comes from the perception of our power," maybe we are seeing that and Russia relies on the fear of its nuclear technologies? This entire operation appears to have been a massive clusterf--- from the beginning. U.S. and EU intelligence knowing and sharing with the public the entire Russian playbook - so either some Russian higher ups are leaking or the communication lines are seriously compromised. Strategy wise, Russia has just been dropping Spetsnaz all over Ukraine unsupported and assuming they will get the job done. Now Kyiv is surrounded by hundreds of older tanks which don't exactly fare well in urban warfare. All Russia's superior technology seemingly absent, like the S-400 systems that were supposed to help them rule the sky within a few hours. And a lack of justification where you actually have most of the world, including the Taliban and Pornhub, in agreement on something.

Putin is just so wild I wouldn't put it past him that this is a massive scheme to come back to the negotiating table a couple weeks later to make sure Ukraine, Finland, et al. don't join NATO. Or that he knows his time is almost up, has something health wise going on as multiple U.S. and EU politicians have hinted at, and is flailing to secure a legacy. Who knows, but Russia is looking quite weak and its citizens are going to seriously suffer when a loaf of bread costs 1,000,000 rubles.

[weathafella]

56 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Support currently in Russia for this appears tepid at best. I don’t think he really cares.

If the majority of Russians turn on him he’s done.  How do you know support is tepid in Russia?

[PowderBeard]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If the majority of Russians turn on him he’s done.  How do you know support is tepid in Russia?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

34 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If the majority of Russians turn on him he’s done.  How do you know support is tepid in Russia?

Fairly large protests considering the consequences for people attending them. Russia feeling the need to shut off information coming from social media. Famous Russians (athletes) pleading for this to stop. Doesn’t seem like an overwhelming vote of confidence to me.

 

Maybe I’m drawing too many conclusions from a small sample size, but to me, doesn’t seem all that popular.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Fairly large protests considering the consequences for people attending them. Russia feeling the need to shut off information coming from social media. Famous Russians (athletes) pleading for this to stop. Doesn’t seem like an overwhelming vote of confidence to me.

 

Maybe I’m drawing too many conclusions from a small sample size, but to me, doesn’t seem all that popular.

Yup. It’s not popular at all. Putin can only lie to his people for so long in a modern world before they see it for what it is. This isn’t 1970…

[mreaves]

42 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

What’s this picture? Must be in Moscow or St. Petersburg right? Is it blood from busting up protests? 

[weathafella]

The people protesting are not suddenly turning.   We don’t have hundreds of thousands in the streets.  Russia is a huge country and Putin would win in a huge landslide in an election if held right now.  But if things do t go so well in Ukraine it’s a different story.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The people protesting are not suddenly turning.   We don’t have hundreds of thousands in the streets.  Russia is a huge country and Putin would win in a huge landslide in an election if held right now.  But if things do t go so well in Ukraine it’s a different story.

Their elections are fraudulent.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Their elections are fraudulent.

My point is he still has support of the majority of Russians outside of urban areas.  That means he is supported by the vast majority of Russians.   War solidifies support initially.  When it goes bad that support erodes quickly.  I think a lot of people are jumping to conclusions here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My point is he still has support of the majority of Russians outside of urban areas.  That means he is supported by the vast majority of Russians.   War solidifies support initially.  When it goes bad that support erodes quickly.  I think a lot of people are jumping to conclusions here.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/world/europe/russia-election-google.html

I don’t see the conclusion jumping. Putin’s popularity has been waning. If the elections were real, we really don’t know if he would win. 

[weathafella]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/world/europe/russia-election-google.html

I don’t see the conclusion jumping. Putin’s popularity has been waning. If the elections were real, we really don’t know if he would win. 

That’s parliamentary elections and as the article stated they rubber stamp everything that the kremlin decides to do. 

The wildcard is Putin himself.  He has apparently been particularly paranoid about covid personally and essentially isolated for 2 years.   
 

I just don’t buy into the idea that Putin doesn’t have an ironclad grip on Russia.   

 

[Lava Rock]

Looking forward to getting my hardware out of my elbow next month from last years broken elbow bike crash. Unfortunately looks like I might have partial rotator cuff tear, probably related to crash. I suspected there was issue and have been doing PT last few weeks but not making much progress. Most of pain is in back of upper arm. Hurts to reach back and I have some loss of flexibility. The MRI was not definitive and not sure where to go from here. Will talk to my PCP but I think a sports med doc visit is in order. The prospects of another surgery is depressing.

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[Ginx snewx]

10 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Looking forward to getting my hardware out of my elbow next month from last years broken elbow bike crash. Unfortunately looks like I might have partial rotator cuff tear, probably related to crash. I suspected there was issue and have been doing PT last few weeks but not making much progress. Most of pain is in back of upper arm. Hurts to reach back and I have some loss of flexibility. The MRI was not definitive and not sure where to go from here. Will talk to my PCP but I think a sports med doc visit is in order. The prospects of another surgery is depressing.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Oh man bro so sorry. Sounds like a torn labrum

[Lava Rock]

Oh man bro so sorry. Sounds like a torn labrum

Interestingly, the impression was "suspect small distal supraspinatus tear" and the mention of an "occult small labrum tear. Followup MRI may be suggested ". Looking at the shoulder anatomy, I wasn't sure if the supraspinatus tendon was in the front or back and same for labrum. Most of pain is in back with some twinges in front. I don't have any strength issues

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[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Interestingly, the impression was "suspect small distal supraspinatus tear" and the mention of an "occult small labrum tear. Followup MRI may be suggested ". Looking at the shoulder anatomy, I wasn't sure if the supraspinatus tendon was in the front or back and same for labrum. Most of pain is in back with some twinges in front. I don't have any strength issues

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Get the surgery it won't get better with PT. After my accident I put it off, huge mistake ended up with 3 shoulder surgeries, 2 in the right 1 in the left and my left is all fuked up

[Supernovice]

13 hours ago, Supernovice said:

It’s actually much worse than that- ruble to zero. Putin’s options are very very limited now and not in a good way.

On cue:

[DavisStraight]

40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Get the surgery it won't get better with PT. After my accident I put it off, huge mistake ended up with 3 shoulder surgeries, 2 in the right 1 in the left and my left is all fuked up

I agree with this, when I tore mine PT didn't do squat and in the meantime the pain got worse to the point I couldn't brush my teeth with my right arm.  Cortisone shots didn't do a thing either.  The surgery is arthroscopic so you'll just have a few little holes where they go in. After a little rehab you'll be good as new.

[PowderBeard]

17 minutes ago, Supernovice said:

On cue:

Given Germany's 180* turn and tweets from an Intel Committee member last night it sounds like US/EU are aware of whatever he is planning. Hopefully they can calm it down in some way. 

[Cold Miser]

9 hours ago, PowderBeard said:

 

8 hours ago, mreaves said:

What’s this picture? Must be in Moscow or St. Petersburg right? Is it blood from busting up protests? 

What is this a pic of?

[PowderBeard]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

 

What is this a pic of?

Red dye on the Alexander II assassination site.

[PhineasC]

30 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

Given Germany's 180* turn and tweets from an Intel Committee member last night it sounds like US/EU are aware of whatever he is planning. Hopefully they can calm it down in some way. 

Putin isn't even bombing Kiev but you guys are worried he will use nuclear weapons?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dude is a delusional psychopath. 
 

“Top officials in leading NATO countries have allowed themselves to make aggressive comments about our country, therefore I hereby order the minister of Defense and the chief of the General Staff [of the RF Armed Forces] to place the Russian Army Deterrence Force on combat alert,” Putin said in televised meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.

According to state news agency RIA Novosti, citing the Russian Ministry of Defense, the strategic forces "are designed to deter aggression against Russia and its allies, as well as to defeat the aggressor (inflicting defeat on him), including in a war with the use of nuclear weapons."