George001 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018. The polar domain should get a bit less hostile later in December, but any major disruption is well over a month away and perhaps closer to two+ months away. We should do fine later this month,,,especially northern half of region. If there is a "blizzard" type of event this year, best shot is early March....with perhaps a smaller secondary maxima of potential early Jan before warmer interlude again establishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 note to George: It's december 2. there are still 19 days left until winter begins 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Good to see the Panic Room tradition continuing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Don't worry, we've got your snow in Hawaii. .BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-040215- /O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Our panic thread is when Wiz posts his countdown to May and Tip starts talking about solar irradiance warming his car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, Hoth said: Our panic thread is when Wiz posts his countdown to May and Tip starts talking about solar irradiance warming his car. Isn't that the truth! Please DON'T rush it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Shared this several days ago on another forum: Saw something interesting. My #1 analog in my blend for DEC was 1984. Here is Cansips DEC forecast on top with DEC 1984 underneath MJO in DEC, 1984 was 3,4,5,6...blue line Very similar to the MJO forecast for this DEC although we might get to phase 7 sooner. Late DEC, 1984 had a SSW. JAN MJO went into COD, then 7,8,1,2. JAN, 1985 - 500mb: Certainly I'm not saying we have a replica of JAN, 1985 coming but I am wondering if a late DEC SSW prediction & colder JAN is a distinct possibility?? The progression of DEC is eerily similar. Here is DEC 15-20, 1984: Here is 0z GEFS for DEC 18: The SSW in 1984 occurred on DEC 29. Progression of strat from DEC 20 on is below: Graph is from this great paper on that particular SSW: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337872697_Dynamics_of_the_Arctic_polar_vortex_during_the_19841985_sudden_stratospheric_warming END OF POST ________________________________________________________ Now since that post CFS is predicting a SSW at the end of month & Simon Lee pointed out on twitter that the EPS is predicting a weakening of PV. just something watch right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 1:53 PM, mattb65 said: Don't worry, we've got your snow in Hawaii. .BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-040215- /O.CON.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 311 AM HST Fri Dec 3 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. Forecast was for 5-10" with lollis to 20" Up to almost 8" on the day, 9" on the event, still pounding and radar looks like this #firehose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCD17 Posted December 7, 2021 Share Posted December 7, 2021 Just give us lurkers an endless sea of storms that are 7-10 days away, all of which fail to materialize, and we'll make it through this winter just fine. Maybe throw in a few completely unrealistic clown maps for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 8, 2021 Share Posted December 8, 2021 On 12/7/2021 at 9:19 AM, QCD17 said: Just give us lurkers an endless sea of storms that are 7-10 days away, all of which fail to materialize, and we'll make it through this winter just fine. Maybe throw in a few completely unrealistic clown maps for good measure. You asked for it, you got it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 This is a good thread….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 10:58 AM, George001 said: My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018. This is actually looking really bad. I should have just stuck to my guns the whole time. The pattern change is upon us now, and it only looks to be getting better in Jan. The polar vortex doesn’t need to be super weak, as long as it’s not consolidated over the North Pole we will be fine with the other factors in place as good as they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 all aboard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Ode to winter 2021-2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 A lot of posts in the main December thread belong in here now and I suspect for the next 2 weeks or so will be much of the same. That thread is unreadable rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 10:58 AM, George001 said: My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018. There is nothing wrong with adjusting a seasonal forecast as things play out. Far too many professional forecasters and amateur forecasters cling to their forecasts for far too long. Some seem to think that adjusting a seasonal forecast makes them appear to be wrong. And for some it is a blow to their ego. Nearly everything we do in life involves making adjustments at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 People be waking up this AM and be like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 I may leave December with with falls tomorrow as my seasonal total..so a coating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 38 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: I may leave December with with falls tomorrow as my seasonal total..so a coating? I got 1/4" in my name currently. FIne by me, I don't need the snow anymore. It's a hassle I'd prefer not to have to deal with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Making my first venture into this thread. This is quickly sleeping into the "this winter blows" category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Ray melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 7:32 AM, Great Snow 1717 said: There is nothing wrong with adjusting a seasonal forecast as things play out. Far too many professional forecasters and amateur forecasters cling to their forecasts for far too long. Some seem to think that adjusting a seasonal forecast makes them appear to be wrong. And for some it is a blow to their ego. Nearly everything we do in life involves making adjustments at some point. It depends why you are doing it......I like to see how accurate I am when I compose it in late October/ early November. While I will adjust ideas in subsequent blog posts, the original outlook gets graded as is from November. At this point, I am going to need a big event or two to catch up prior to the January thaw, or else my seasonal snowfall totals will likely be too high. Still very possible we catch up, but I am obviously frustrated at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 On 12/2/2021 at 10:58 AM, George001 said: My winter forecast is going to BUST! I know I was calling for a big winter and pattern flip, but the recent guidance has changed with a polar vortex that is expected to deepen and remain stronger than average into mid Jan. The long range outlook for winter looks like shit right now, I hate to be an alarmist but I dont see how we are going to get North Atlantic blocking with a polar vortex this deep. Looking at the European guidance, the polar vortex isn’t consolidated over Eastern Canada, it’s over the North Pole. I’m very disappointed with the lack of North Atlantic blocking on the models, and honestly I’m really pissed off. I have been looking forward to a severe 2+ feet Boston blizzard this winter, I thought we would have 2 or 3 of em but now it’s looking like we won’t even get 1, last time my area had a severe 2 foot blizzard was March of 2018. This is a fail, should have stuck to my guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I had more snow in 11/12 than I do so far this year. Brutal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Total shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 12/23/2021 at 10:19 AM, Baroclinic Zone said: I got 1/4" in my name currently. FIne by me, I don't need the snow anymore. It's a hassle I'd prefer not to have to deal with. I've heard Hilton Head SC is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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