Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[Rd9108]

45 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Actually, most areas in AGC did not meet warning criteria. 7 inches was pretty standard in much of the county.

https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1483177652714237954/photo/1

I don't know why you keep bringing it up when you are wrong.

I mean  we can argue about this all day but after the storm was all said and done a general 6-9 fell across the county. They adjusted their forecast last minute to account for dry air. 

[TimB]

49 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Actually, most areas in AGC did not meet warning criteria. 7 inches was pretty standard in much of the county.

https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1483177652714237954/photo/1

I don't know why you keep bringing it up when you are wrong.

I mean fine, but 6-9” over ~18 hours is getting a warning slapped on it 100 times out of 100 even if the low end doesn’t technically meet criteria.

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I mean fine, but 6-9” over ~18 hours is getting a warning slapped on it 100 times out of 100 even if the low end doesn’t technically meet criteria.

Our criteria is 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24 hrs if I'm not mistaken. Can somebody explain how it didn't reach that???

[TimB]

Just now, Rd9108 said:

Our criteria is 6 inches in 12 hours or 8 in 24 hrs if I'm not mistaken. Can somebody explain how it didn't reach that???

I would think he’s saying his 7” fell in more than 12 hours, so he didn’t get 6” in any 12 hour period or 8” in any 24 hour period. I don’t like his argument but I know what he’s saying. 

[Rd9108]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I would think he’s saying his 7” fell in more than 12 hours, so he didn’t get 6” in any 12 hour period or 8” in any 24 hour period. I don’t like his argument but I know what he’s saying. 

Oh I understand what he is saying but a majority of the county after it was all said and done got 7 or 8 inches. That's a warning event every time. I get the frustration since the models started throwing big numbers out but dry air and mixing knocked the totals down a few inches. It's over and let's move onto the next threat.

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Oh I understand what he is saying but a majority of the county after it was all said and done got 7 or 8 inches. That's a warning event every time. I get the frustration since the models started throwing big numbers out but dry air and mixing knocked the totals down a few inches. It's over and let's move onto the next threat.

Yes indeed. Still hoping this winter has more to come.

[Gordo74]

10 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Actually, most areas in AGC did not meet warning criteria. 7 inches was pretty standard in much of the county.

https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1483177652714237954/photo/1

I don't know why you keep bringing it up when you are wrong.

Sir, the NWS (which I guarantee has more experts than your backyard) did not downgrade the warning to an advisory, regardless of whatever criteria you think you know better than the officials.

It was a warning. Get over it. 

[KPITSnow]

9 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Oh I understand what he is saying but a majority of the county after it was all said and done got 7 or 8 inches. That's a warning event every time. I get the frustration since the models started throwing big numbers out but dry air and mixing knocked the totals down a few inches. It's over and let's move onto the next threat.

7 inches in the 18 hours it fell is not warning criteria. I’d say maybe half the county hit warning level. 

[KPITSnow]

5 minutes ago, Gordo74 said:

Sir, the NWS (which I guarantee has more experts than your backyard) did not downgrade the warning to an advisory, regardless of whatever criteria you think you know better than the officials.

It was a warning. Get over it. 

I don’t get why you guys keep bringing this up? 
 

At least half the county got less than 8 inches. That means a lot of us didn’t verify warning criteria. I’m not blaming the NWS, but this storm underperformed on a big way.

 

and to your point in 1/19/19 it was raining and 35 before warnings were dropped.

[Burghblizz]

5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I don’t get why you guys keep bringing this up? 
 

At least half the county got less than 8 inches. That means a lot of us didn’t verify warning criteria. I’m not blaming the NWS, but this storm underperformed on a big way.

 

and to your point in 1/19/19 it was raining and 35 before warnings were dropped.

You brought it up. Linking a map. A map that includes early and mid event totals. Cross reference that with the PIS and the times of those reports. 

Sorry the storm underformed your expectations. It snowed 9.1”. Probably a little more here. 

Forecasts were fine. Every local, accuweather, and the NWS statement validated. 

Literally 30 posts because some dude at NWS briefly pulled the 12” contour down west of the city. 

[Digger]

Every time I see a Tornado Warning I'm really disappointed when my house doesn't blow away...

[Rd9108]

That total map was put out around mid event and It snowed another 2 or 3 inches into the afternoon. It wasn't a bust but I guess you could call it a disappointment since warm and dry air may have cost us another 2 or 4 inches.

[Ahoff]

11 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Actually, most areas in AGC did not meet warning criteria. 7 inches was pretty standard in much of the county.

https://twitter.com/NWSPittsburgh/status/1483177652714237954/photo/1

I don't know why you keep bringing it up when you are wrong.

Mother of God!!!  99% of us were happy with this storm, and considered the warning justified, most of us corroborate 8"+ at our locations.  We know, it was the worst storm of your lifetime.  Tim made a joke, it's not that critical.  Please can we move on?  

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

7 inches in the 18 hours it fell is not warning criteria. I’d say maybe half the county hit warning level. 

For you.  It was 8" in that time for me, over 9" at the official site.  Warning was justified.  The either county received a warning, as it should have.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Mother of God!!!  99% of us were happy with this storm, and considered the warning justified, most of us corroborate 8"+ at our locations.  We know, it was the worst storm of your lifetime.  Tim made a joke, it's not that critical.  Please can we move on?  

I apologize, I shouldn’t have sent out the bat signal.

[Ahoff]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I apologize, I shouldn’t have sent out the bat signal.

It's a little ribbing, it really shouldn't be a big deal.

[Burghblizz]

Little batch of snow showers about to roll in.  Won’t amount to much, but look nice falling into the snow pack. 

[TimB]

22 minutes ago, Digger said:

Every time I see a Tornado Warning I'm really disappointed when my house doesn't blow away...

It was all fun and games until I was hiding in my basement that night in October. To my knowledge, first time I’ve been inside the polygon in PA.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

18 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Little batch of snow showers about to roll in.  Won’t amount to much, but look nice falling into the snow pack. 

Radar keeps juicing up, nice steady light snow coming down. Picked up a fresh coating, maybe we can grab a half inch stat pad. If nothing else another snow globe morning.

[MikeB_01]

mondo flakes outside right now

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

You brought it up. Linking a map. A map that includes early and mid event totals. Cross reference that with the PIS and the times of those reports. 

Sorry the storm underformed your expectations. It snowed 9.1”. Probably a little more here. 

Forecasts were fine. Every local, accuweather, and the NWS statement validated. 

Literally 30 posts because some dude at NWS briefly pulled the 12” contour down west of the city. 

No, I literally did not bring it up. For the 30th time Tim had to once again insult me for saying it was an underperforming bust.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

No, I literally did not bring it up. For the 30th time Tim had to once again insult me for saying it was an underperforming bust.

Insult? You take this stuff far too seriously. 

[KPITSnow]

2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

That total map was put out around mid event and It snowed another 2 or 3 inches into the afternoon. It wasn't a bust but I guess you could call it a disappointment since warm and dry air may have cost us another 2 or 4 inches.

The map came out at 1pm, and we were done at that point. 
 

Just freaking stop brining it up in every post. You thought it was a good event, great. I think it was one of the worst busts I’ve experienced going from models days on end showing a foot and only getting 7 inches, dry slotting, and mixing.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

The map came out at 1pm, and we were done at that point. 
 

Just freaking stop brining it up in every post. You thought it was a good event, great. I think it was one of the worst busts I’ve experienced going from models days on end showing a foot and only getting 7 inches, dry slotting, and mixing.

It’s hard to rule out the idea that you were secretly rooting for it to bust.

[Burghblizz]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

The map came out at 1pm, and we were done at that point. 
 

Just freaking stop brining it up in every post. You thought it was a good event, great. I think it was one of the worst busts I’ve experienced.

The map did, but they aggregate reports from earlier. So like I said, you can cross reference the report times in the PIS and LSR’s

Not sure why you are so obsessed to show that 7” fell instead of 9” in a storm that was forcasted to get 6 to 11”.

Anyway, take this to banter. 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Hard not to like the setup this weekend on the 6z GFS, ridge out west allows the trough axis a bit further west. If we can time 2 shortwaves right something could go boom.

 

[Digger]

3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

It was all fun and games until I was hiding in my basement that night in October. To my knowledge, first time I’ve been inside the polygon in PA.

The day of the tornado on Mt. Washington I was working on Bailey Ave.  (Which if you're not familiar, is a little further out from the point, but has the same sort of view that Grandview does.)

I finished up, and when I got in my truck, turned on the weather radio and heard the tornado warning, but it was for points north and west, like Sewickley. I figured, hey, I have a great view from here, so I stuck around and looked at the sky for 10 minutes or so. I got impatient and thought, I'll never see a tornado, so I went home. Ten minutes later it tore roofs off the houses on the next street down the hill...

But I digress. Back to arguing about winter storm warnings, which for my 2 cents worth, just because an event doesn't quite achieve the criteria, doesn't mean it wasn't justified in the forecast.

Did the forecast amount of sleet factor into the difference between an advisory and a warning?

[RitualOfTheTrout]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Hard not to like the setup this weekend on the 6z GFS, ridge out west allows the trough axis a bit further west. If we can time 2 shortwaves right something could go boom.

 

Well that de-escalated quickly. Seemed like if the 6z GFS look improved a bit more we might see something, but it went the other way.

In other news around 200 hours GFS is setting up another 33 and rain event. Evolution looks almost identical lol. Luckily at that range it will be different in 6 hours anyways.

[dj3]

1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Well that de-escalated quickly. Seemed like if the 6z GFS look improved a bit more we might see something, but it went the other way.

In other news around 200 hours GFS is setting up another 33 and rain event. Evolution looks almost identical lol. Luckily at that range it will be different in 6 hours anyways.

We were pretty spoiled in January as far as tracking goes. Feels like this week is dragging by with not much time to waste looking at models lol. 

[TimB]

Was 2011 really our last 6” event in February?
 

Last year doesn’t count, as the February portion of that 1/31-2/2 event did not reach 6”.