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Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion


meatwad
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7 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I'd say this was about as well as you could forecast a storm like this. Nothing memorable, on to the the next threat.

12/19/22, here we come. Barring a consolation 1.5” in late April.

I’m kidding. Ensembles are still showing a cold-ish February and operational models still show threats here and there.

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

I just saw on the news this morning it stays in the low to mid 30 through Tuesday.  Wednesday is low 40s, then back to upper 30s.

I suppose low 40s isn’t exactly a torch in almost mid-February, it’s pretty seasonable with the rapidly rising normals.

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14 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

12/19/22, here we come. Barring a consolation 1.5” in late April.

I’m kidding. Ensembles are still showing a cold-ish February and operational models still show threats here and there.

Yeah, I know you're kidding, but definitely wouldn't even think of shutting winter down on February 4th.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, I know you're kidding, but definitely wouldn't even think of shutting winter down on February 4th.

Snow has resumed here. Coming straight down. It looks better than fine flakes we were seeing earlier. 

Also at least the next few weeks the models show northwest flow. It should keep from any prolonged warm up. Also chances for something to connect with the gulf or a clipper or two. 

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4 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Snow has resumed here. Coming straight down. It looks better than fine flakes we were seeing earlier. 

Also at least the next few weeks the models show northwest flow. It should keep from any prolonged warm up. Also chances for something to connect with the gulf or a clipper or two. 

Yea I don't think we are done yet this year. My hope is 5 or 6 more weeks of winter and then on to spring. March snow maybe not the same but when we've seen some quick hitting moderate events in March. 

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11 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Snow has resumed here. Coming straight down. It looks better than fine flakes we were seeing earlier. 

Also at least the next few weeks the models show northwest flow. It should keep from any prolonged warm up. Also chances for something to connect with the gulf or a clipper or two. 

Yeah, this looks similar to the January pattern. All 3 (GEPS, GEFS and EPS) show something similar. You can see the trough axis is a bit further west than January and some signs of southern stream action too. Not hard to envision a shortwave diving out of Canada over the ridge and meeting up with something ejecting out of the SW. This upcoming week is more a reshuffle, and we get this look by late next week so it's not some day 15 fantasy, it's already under day 10.

eps-fast_z500a_namer_9.thumb.png.365bd83403f31ac72a904a9adfd86682.png

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18 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, this looks similar to the January pattern. All 3 (GEPS, GEFS and EPS) show something similar. You can see the trough axis is a bit further west than January and some signs of southern stream action too. Not hard to envision a shortwave diving out of Canada over the ridge and meeting up with something ejecting out of the SW. This upcoming week is more a reshuffle, and we get this look by late next week so it's not some day 15 fantasy, it's already under day 10.

eps-fast_z500a_namer_9.thumb.png.365bd83403f31ac72a904a9adfd86682.png

That’s largely what I’m seeing. CMCE and GEFS have us in the blue for most of their runs late next week and beyond. And the bitter, extreme cold some of the models showed may have moderated, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. I got my highs in the teens and lows below zero this year so I’m happy.

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18 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah, this looks similar to the January pattern. All 3 (GEPS, GEFS and EPS) show something similar. You can see the trough axis is a bit further west than January and some signs of southern stream action too. Not hard to envision a shortwave diving out of Canada over the ridge and meeting up with something ejecting out of the SW. This upcoming week is more a reshuffle, and we get this look by late next week so it's not some day 15 fantasy, it's already under day 10.

eps-fast_z500a_namer_9.thumb.png.365bd83403f31ac72a904a9adfd86682.png

 I aim for this month to be the coldest February since 2015, just like January was the coldest since 2014.

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3 minutes ago, snowsux said:

 I aim for this month to be the coldest February since 2015, just like January was the coldest since 2014.

That would only take a -3.8 departure to beat last year, which is to date the only February since 2015 not to be at least +2. Being +6.7 for the first three days of a short month might make that extremely difficult, however.

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16 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That would only take a -3.8 departure to beat last year, which is to date the only February since 2015 not to be at least +2. Being +6.7 for the first three days of a short month might make that extremely difficult, however.

Three days shouldn't be that tough to overcome, if you get some very cold days.

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I just took the dog for a walk last hour and he loved it. Running in the snow. Big fat flakes. Moderate at times. Not much wind. 

As I get older I like these events more and more. As much as they disappoint they also surprise us as well. 

Tracking is fun and frustrating but I like the nickel and dimes. We could have been like much of the east coast and get 12 inches of snow overnight and you wake up shovel and the sun comes out. With us we can get several days of snow showers and bursts now and then after a storm. 

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2 minutes ago, north pgh said:

I just took the dog for a walk last hour and he loved it. Running in the snow. Big fat flakes. Moderate at times. Not much wind. 

As I get older I like these events more and more. As much as they disappoint they also surprise us as well. 

Tracking is fun and frustrating but I like the nickel and dimes. We could have been like much of the east coast and get 12 inches of snow overnight and you wake up shovel and the sun comes out. With us we can get several days of snow showers and bursts now and then after a storm. 

And three weeks of snowpack, which I’d like to see the east coast try to do.

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